Morning Jolt - A Bombshell in Wisconsin's Gubernatorial Recall Race?

NRO Newsletters . . . Morning Jolt . . . with Jim Geraghty May 24, 2012 In This Issue . . . 1. A Bombshell in Wisconsin's Gubernatorial Recall Race? 2. Obama's Strangely Consistent Slide with Red-State Democrats 3. Conservative Blogosphere Suddenly Explodes with Gatsby-mania and Gatsby-fury 4. Addendum Here's your Thursday Morning Jolt! Enjoy. Jim 1. A Bombshell in Wisconsin's Gubernatorial Recall Race?    This struck me as a very big deal, but maybe I'm not cynical enough:   When Milwaukee Police Chief Edward Flynn touted the city's fourth-straight year of falling crime in February, hundreds of beatings, stabbings and child abuse cases were missing from the count, a Journal Sentinel investigation has found.   More than 500 incidents since 2009 were misreported to the FBI as minor assaults and not included in the city's violent crime rate, the investigation found. That tally is based on a review of cases that resulted in charges - only about one-fifth of all reported crimes.   Yet the misreported cases found in 2011 alone are enough that Flynn would have been announcing a 1.1% increase in violent crime in February, instead of a 2.3% decline from the reported 2010 numbers, which also include errors.    By the way, every month new unemployment figures come out, and some readers inevitably respond, "you know all of those numbers are a pack of lies, right?" While I have my occasional doubts that the Bureau of Labor Statistics methods of measuring employment and unemployment are optimal, I don't think they're making it up wholesale. But when you hear stories like this one out of Milwaukee, the public's trust can only erode.   As noted on Campaign Spot, the mayor of Milwaukee is Tom Barrett and he's the Democrat challenging Scott Walker in the recall election. And he's been bragging about the drop in crime on his campaign web site: "Tom has worked with law enforcement, community groups and residents to develop proactive strategies, and he has empowered the city's police department with the resources and strong leadership it needs to get the job done. As a result, violent crime in Milwaukee has decreased by 20% over the past two years, and homicides are at the lowest levels in more than 20 years."   As you would expect, the Walker campaign is pouncing:   Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett once said of improving crime statistics, "The statistics tell a lot, but if you look even deeper in these statistics, they tell you, I think, an even more striking story." It turns out the Mayor Barrett was right. Because a new report today from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel show us that over the last three years at least 500 violent crimes were misreported by Milwaukee as minor assaults. So many crimes were misreported, that Milwaukee's violent crime rate actually increased, instead of the reported decrease. "This is another example in the ever growing list of Tom Barrett's failed leadership. It's inexcusable that under his watch, the public was deceived as to the real levels of crime in Milwaukee," said Walker Deputy Campaign Manager Dan Blum. "The more we learn about Tom Barrett, the more we know that we can't trust him to do anything other than take Wisconsin backwards." The report also states that 800 more cases fit the pattern of misreporting, but public records were not available. A criminology professor called the report's findings "just the tip of the iceberg" and said "misreporting is cheating the public." He added "If they are playing fast and loose, they will do it with the cases they don't send to the prosecutor. If it's this bad at this level, how bad can it be on the cases that don't reach eye level?"    By the way, new poll out in America's Dairyland:   A new poll from St. Norbert College and Wisconsin Public Radio has Scott Walker up on Tom Barrett.   The survey found 50 percent of respondents backed the guv, while 45 percent favored Barrett.   The landline and cell telephone survey of 406 likely voters was conducted May 17-22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.   Walker's job approval rating was 52 percent with 48 percent disapproving. President Obama's job approval rating split was 54-45.    The Republican National Committee would like me to let you know that they are holding their second online Victory Thursday phone bank through the Social Victory Center. This phone bank can be accessed through the Social Victory Center's Phone from Home feature and will be focused on helping Republicans get out the vote in Wisconsin. "Turning out the vote is vital to keeping Wisconsin red and the Social Victory Center allows volunteers from across the country to virtually fly-in and help get out the vote. Please feel free to distribute this event to local parties and volunteers so that we can get the win in Wisconsin." 2. Obama's Strangely Consistent Slide with Red-State Democrats Jeff Dobbs examines the results of the North Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Kentucky primaries and observes:    If the Democrats insist on racism as the cause of Obama's woes in these primaries, then they have to admit they are a party of racists, since these are Democratic primaries. They can make that case if they like. It should bode well for them in the general election -- and not just in the Presidential race -- to be telling members of their own party that they consider them racists. Go for it!   Interesting, though, is that the numbers line up fairly consistently. Let's take a look at the difference in the Not Obama votes by Democrats in the 2008 election (based on exit polling) versus the 2012 primaries. Percent of Democrats Not Voting for Obama:   North Carolina 2008 General Election: 10% 2012 Democratic Primary: 21% Difference: -11% Kentucky 2008 General Election: 31% 2012 Democratic Primary: 42% Difference: -11% West Virginia 2008 General Election: 31% 2012 Democratic Primary: 41% Difference: -10% Arkansas 2008 General Election: 23% 2012 Democratic Primary: 42% Difference: -19%   In Kentucky, West Virginia and North Carolina, Obama faced no real opposition (NC and KY there was no one else on the ballot, in WV that person was a convicted felon behind bars in a Texas prison). In these states he lost between 10-11% of his 2008 support among Democrats. In Arkansas, Obama had opposition in the form of a little known, but non-felon attorney, and he lost 19% of his 2008 support.  3. Conservative Blogosphere Suddenly Explodes with Gatsby-mania and Gatsby-fury   So what do you remember from The Great Gatsby?   I read it for one of my high-school English classes, and haven't read it since. Three elements stuck with me -- the idea that  F. Scott Fitzgerald split his own persona into two characters, the relatively level-headed, fascinated narrator  Nick and the mysterious, perpetual-center-of-attention Gatsby; a protagonist who is obsessed with a woman, and does amazing things in pursuit of that obsession; and the danger of reckless wealthy people who are used to living without consequence.   The trailer is out for the new movie version, and for some reason, a lot of folks in the Righty blogosphere felt the need to weigh in. I guess everybody else paid more attention in English class and had stronger feelings about it.   A lot of folks didn't like it; as Ace of Spades summarizes, "New 'The Great Gatsby' Film Designed To Teach Students That Sometimes It's Just Less Painful To Read The Book."   Over at Ricochet, Ben Domenech writes, "I've never seen a trailer in which you can tell so many people are so clearly miscast within ten second increments. Carey Mulligan may be a decent actress, but her clumsy attempt at a Southern accent speaks to ruination of one of the true feminine characters in the entirety of American literature. Luhrmann's rumored fave for the role, Blake Lively, couldn't be worse, and that's saying something. There is not a single actor in the thing who looks comfortable in the role, and the glitz and glam shrieks of this being an Occupy Wall Street take on American capitalism, which Gatsby never was. The CGI New York looks more like Tron. I can't tell if I prefer the terribleness of Tobey Maguire's non-acting to that bearded fellow's overacting. And DiCaprio, poor DiCaprio, simmers with the confused emotion of a man who has just tasted plain yogurt when he thought it was vanilla. Here, toss some shirts."   But elsewhere at Ricochet, Emily Esfahani Smith has a completely different reaction: "As a traditionalist and a lover of all-things-Fitzgerald, I was completely captivated by the trailer. The two-minute clip is lush, decadent, and sexy -- three qualities that Fitzgerald was not unfamiliar with. Let's not forget that Fitzgerald was the consummate alcoholic who, with his wife Zelda, were glamourous socialites on the New York circuit during the twenties . . . In other words, Fitzgerald embodied the excesses of the Jazz Age, excesses that Luhrmann's trailer captures perfectly. And even though Luhrmann opts for hip hop rather than jazz as background music -- which has already become a source of comment and consternation -- the two are close substitutes: jazz, in the twenties, was considered hot, morally degenerate, and libertine. And, to a certain audience, the same can be said of hip hop today."   Ed Driscoll takes it all in with dread: "But back to the film itself. My first thought, watching the above trailer was, to paraphrase the perceptive veteran film critics Beavis and Butt-head, this really [stinks] - but it [stinks] in unique ways we've never seen before. Or actually, we have; the same problems that plague Martin Scorsese's The Aviator -- killer production design, great wardrobe, phony looking CGI, and the same unbelievable lead are at work here as well."   Yeah, but you'll all be shocked at the end of this version of The Great Gatsby when the title character spins a top and the top just keeps spinning and spinning . . . 4. Addendum   It was a rebuilding day for the usual funny closing addendum. Get quippier, people!   Quick Links:  The Campaign Spot   National Review Online   E-Mail Jim Geraghty Save 75% . . .  Subscribe to National Review magazine today and get 75% off the regular subscription rate. Click here for details.   Check out all of NRO's free newsletters: Morning Jolt, The Goldberg File, NRO Digest, and NROriginals. Click here for details.   - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Join the Morning Jolt Mailing List - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

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