Morning Jolt - Some Crazy Like a Fox Poll Numbers?

NRO Newsletters . . .

Morning Jolt

. . . with Jim Geraghty

August 24, 2012

In This Issue . . .

1. Some Crazy Like a Fox Poll Numbers?

2. Obama: We Cannot Let Republicans Communicate Their Message for a Week!

3. Watching and Waiting on Isaac

4. Addendum

Here's your Morning Jolt.

Happy Friday!

Jim

1. Some Crazy Like a Fox Poll Numbers?

I realize that a lot of folks on the right look at the state of the country and wonder why Romney's not winning by a landslide already, but poll results like this one aren't so bad. One might even argue they're laying the groundwork for a big win in November:

Less than a week before the Republican convention begins, the race for the White House is a virtual tie. According to a Fox News poll of likely voters, the Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan ticket receives the backing of 45 percent, while the Barack Obama-Joe Biden ticket garners 44 percent.

The poll, released Thursday, is the first Fox has conducted among likely voters this year, which means an apples-to-apples comparison can't be made to previous polls. Likely voters are eligible/registered voters who will most likely cast a ballot in this year's presidential election.

Over at Red State, Daniel Horowitz notices: "47% of Democrats polled were "extremely interested" to vote in November, while 59% of Republicans felt the same way. By far, self-described Tea Partiers were the most interested in voting (71%) of all sub-groups. Also, only 27% of voters under the age of 35, a critical demographic for Obama, were extremely interested in voting; 58% of those over 65 fit into this category."

It's enough to get Allahpundit thinking the unthinkable: Optimism.

Romney leads by nine points among seniors and by 10 points among independents, and Romney voters are 11 points more likely to be "extremely" interested in the election than Obama supporters and 10 points more likely to say it's "extremely" important that their candidate wins. Second look at optimism?

The good news is that the remaining undecideds out there take a dim view of The One's presidency -- unsurprisingly, or else they wouldn't be undecided, right? The bad news is that Romney isn't closing the deal yet. His favorable rating among them is gruesome, and among the overall electorate that's a depressingly thin lead on the economy. But maybe that's out of his hands: Some chunk of voters is surely still reserving judgment on O's economic performance, waiting to see if there are any signs of real growth before election day. If he gets two more bad jobs reports, Romney's margin on that question will open without him needing to utter a word.

He continues to dive into the crosstabs and finds:

It's a 10-point swing from ages 55-64 to ages 65 and up. The only reason Obama leads on the Medicare question overall is because of the insanity of the under-35 group, a lower-turnout demographic. In fact, here's the age breakdown on the question, "How important is it to you that the presidential candidate you are supporting win the election?"

Older, pro-Republican voters (as noted above, Romney leads by nine among seniors) are considerably more motivated than younger, pro-Obama ones (O leads by 13 among voters under age 35). Makes me wonder what sort of desperate youth pander The One might have waiting for September. Student-loan forgiveness, here we come!

My guess? Marijuana legalization. Nail down that Gary Johnson-backing demographic.

2. Obama: We Cannot Let Republicans Communicate Their Message for a Week!

Yeah, this screams confidence:

Bucking protocol, President Obama and the Democrats are planning a full-scale assault on Republicans next week during their convention.

Presidential candidates have traditionally kept a low profile during their opponent's nominating celebration, but Democrats are throwing those rules out the window in an attempt to spoil Mitt Romney's coronation as the GOP nominee.

President Obama, Vice President Biden and leading congressional Democrats have all scheduled high-profile events next week to counter-program the Republican gathering in Tampa, Fla.

Even first lady Michelle Obama is in on the act, scheduling an appearance on the "David Letterman Show" smack in the middle of Romney's nominating bash.

Political historians say the high stakes of this year's elections -- combined with the rise of today's 24/7 media culture -- have forced leaders on both sides of the aisle to get more aggressive.

"Traditionally, there was a kind of courtesy extended to the party having the convention -- the [other] party would basically stay out of the public eye," said Ross Baker, political scientist at Rutgers University.

But that "gentlemen's agreement," Baker said, has been largely abandoned as "a consequence of the polarization of American politics." He characterized the old tradition as a "quaint code of etiquette" destined to become a "remnant of the 20th century."

Or, you know, this is who they are. This is the way they see the world. It may be that they fear Republicans laying out their views and ideas for four nights, unimpeded . . . or it may merely offend them that someone dares disagree with them.

Our old friend Mark Hemingway sees trouble for the Democrats, although they're unlikely to heed his warnings:

Let's look at the calendar. The Democratic convention is being held in Charlotte, September 3 through September 6, with Obama accepting the nomination that final night. Unemployment reports are released the first Friday of every month, so next unemployment report comes out . . . the morning of September 7. If it's another dismal report -- and again, the odds are that it will be nothing to celebrate -- it could step all over the news coming out of the convention.

This could be particularly bad if the Democrats spend the entire week tearing down Mitt Romney and talking about abortion. Since Paul Ryan has been added to the GOP ticket, there's little question that the Romney-Ryan ticket had shifted their campaign theme to a big picture economic debate. Thus far, the Obama and Democrats haven't been terribly willing to engage the issue beyond Mediscare attacks on Paul Ryan. And the recent news that the DNC is reshuffling the speakers at the convention to highlight pro-abortion activists following the controversy over Missouri GOP Senate Candidate Todd Akin doesn't suggest that they're going to have a substantive discussion of what they plan to do about the economy at the convention, either.

3. Watching and Waiting on Isaac

I'll get a little wet next week, but maybe it won't be quite so bad:

Governor Rick Scott said Thursday morning that Florida is making preparations as Tropical Storm Isaac's predicted path continues to point toward the state, though it has shifted slightly to the west.

Where it could hit -- and if -- will become much clearer over the next 24 to 48 hours, a crucial period for the state and organizers of the Republican National Convention.

In response to the storm's latest track, Scott said the EOC will go to Level 2 Thursday and talks with RNC officials will increase.

"We're going to be prepared in the event it does hit our state," he said.

Scott said the decision on the RNC will be made by convention organizers. In terms of coordinating possible evacuations and placing emergency personnel for a storm, that's up to state and local governments -- and that's his focus.

"The convention has the decision. They have their own constituents. They make their own decisions," Scott said. "State and local will make their own decisions based on our people, our stakeholders. . . .The convention will makes its own decision."

Any possible impact in Tampa would be devastating to the convention, but right now, Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn said it's too early to be concerned.

"I'm not particularly worried right now about Isaac," the mayor told Fox 13. "I'm worried about putting on a great event."

Go west, young Isaac, go west.

4. Addendum

Rick Warren offers warm and fuzzy thoughts to the president: "President Obama's policies clearly show what he values and I have told him that I adamantly disagree with those particular policies. I have not talked about this issue with Governor Romney, but I would imagine that as a Mormon he'd obviously understand the importance of protecting all religions against persecution, and ensuring people's rights to practice their conscience without government intervention."

Endorsement? Sometimes the endorsement is superfluous.