| Morning Jolt – October 24, 2012 By Jim Geraghty Here's your Wednesday Morning Jolt. Enjoy! Jim Trump Concludes Campaign Going Too Well for Romney; Decides to Make Final Weeks of Race All about Himself Oh, Donald . . . (or is it, "The Donald"?) . . . could you possibly be so dense to believe this would help the causes you claim to believe in? Donald Trump is to claim that he has unearthed divorce papers of Michelle Obama and the President, according to a respected financial pundit with links to the tycoon. It is alleged that the eccentric real estate mogul will claim that the documents show the First Lady and the President were at one point in their two decades of marriage seriously considering splitting up. Trump set the hare running on Monday by claiming that he was set to make an announcement on Wednesday that would be 'bordering on gigantic' and that it would 'possibly' change the Presidential race.
The billionaire told Fox & Friends that he had 'something very, very big concerning the president of the United States'. 'It's going to be very big. I know one thing- you will cover it in a very big fashion'. Trump declined to elaborate, but today an investor who appears on the same business talk show as him claimed to have more details. Douglas Kass, a Florida-based investor who appears on CNBC's talkshow 'Squawkbox' where Trump is often a commentator, tweeted to his 48,000 followers: 'High above the Alps my Gnome has heard that Donald Trump will announce that he has unearthed divorce papers between the Prez and his wife.' I know, Donald, I know. Your revelation is going to be "yuge. Yuuuuuuge*." As mentioned on Campaign Spot, the Obamas' near-divorce is old news to those who have been paying attention, and, barring some giant new revelations, relatively irrelevant to the choice before Americans at this moment. We want the electorate judging Obama on his decisions as a president from January 20 to now, as opposed to his decisions as a husband back in the 1990s. Bryan Preston can't believe that the "scandal" is that the White House poo-pooed the initial reports of marital difficulties a decade ago. So the bombshell would be that Obama lied about something? Knock me over with a feather. He did that several times in the debates and it hasn't been treated as any "bombshell." He accused Mitt Romney of being a felon and a murderer without a shred of proof and the media shrugged. Unless those papers include something new and very explosive, they're not going to be worth much, and using them just might end up generating sympathy for Obama. For the good of the nation, Mr. Trump, please be careful. Late attacks sometimes rebound to benefit the person attacked. Lots of Americans, including Trump himself, have had marital problems. What Obama did to Jack Ryan cannot be done to Obama. More: Now we have Gloria Allred pulling shenanigans from the left. This sort of thing is why we can't have a nice country anymore. Ann Althouse: Unless there is a revelation of some significant misbehavior, this isn't big at all. It mainly makes Trump look small. And it's not helpful to Romney's cause for Trump to claim the spotlight, in the last 2 weeks of the campaign, over this.
Who cares about the internal workings of a political marriage? I always assume there's some phony PR to it. But the fact is they are together, they've played the public role of married couple, and they have 2 very real little girls who don't deserve to be hurt. And because of that, Trump's news, if this is what it is, will only make moderate, middle-of-the road voters feel compassion for Obama.
Trump should crawl back into his hole right now, before he does any damage. * "Yuge" is how Trump pronounces his favorite adjective. Bayonet-gate The Wall Street Journal can't help but take a look at the assertion of the president, that of course the U.S. Navy has fewer ships than it used to, a changing world means that the military uses fewer bayonets and horses than it used to. From the department of picayune fact-checking: The U.S. Army has 419,155 bayonets in its inventory. The Marine Corps has about 195,334 bayonets (and has plans to acquire 175,061 more). President Barack Obama said Monday night that the U.S. had fewer horses and bayonets than in 1916, by way of rebutting MittRomney's charge that the Navy has fewer ships than any time since 1917. Mr. Obama appears to be on the money with horses. In 1916, the U.S. Army still had mounted cavalry forces, creating a demand for horses on the battlefield. Today the Army only has 176 horses in its "on-hand inventory." (Though, to be sure, the Special Forces in Afghanistan from time to time borrow local steeds.) Our Charles Cooke adds, "Back then, the army was about 108,000 men strong, and the National Guard boasted about 90,000 men. There are no reliable numbers on the number of bayonets issued -- and so chronic was the shortage that American soldiers preparing for war in 1917 were relegated to using brooms instead -- but, arguendo, let's be generous and assume that every man in any sort of defense capacity was given one. That's 200,000 bayonets at the most." Meanwhile, I'm starting to look at our Dan Foster a little more warily since I read the level of detail about knives on this post: The bayonet (both word and object come to us from 17th Century France) is still very much in its prime. The Army uses the M9, a model developed in the 80s for the M-16 rifle by the late Charles A. "Mickey" Finn, a military weapons super-guru who was known to answer to the name "Q" in special forces circles, an homage to James Bond's armorer. The M16A2, M16A4, and M4A1 carbines currently in service with U.S. soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines all retain lugs to receive the M9. And the Marine Corps has transitioned to the slick new OKC3S bayonet: a full-tang construction, 13.25" piece of 1095 steel with a Zinc phosphate non-reflective finish, a stealthy sheath, and a "Dynaflex® handle ergonomically grooved to reduce hand fatigue." Designed to be sharper, stronger, and more natural in the hand than its predecessors, the OKC3S is built to penetrate body armor and was part of the Marine Corps post-9/11 push to reemphasize hand-to-hand combat. Dan continues: I talked to a couple Marine rifleman, both veterans of Iraq and/or Afghanistan, and they confirmed the OKC3S bayonet is very much a presence in a young Marine's life. "The training is part of Boot Camp and is something new recruits practice several times," one told me. "Is it common to use a bayonet on patrol in Iraq? No. Do we still 'fix bayonets' in close quarters? Yes. I don't want to overstate their presence, but the president is categorically wrong on this." The OKC3S was designed and contracted by the Ontario Knife Company, founded in 1889 and run out of Franklinville, New York. At least 120,000 have been produced for the USMC at a cost of about $37 each starting in 2003. I asked OKC to comment on the President's bayonet quip but they declined beyond offering a press release through a PR firm: "We take pride in our military products and it's an honor and privilege to supply these weapons/tools to the US military," said OKC CEO Ken Trbovich in the release."Themilitary deploys our products for a wide range of combat and field operations, these include but are not limited to breaching devices, rescue tools and combat weapons." You know how we know Obama was desperate to land a knockout punch on Romney? Take a look at every stance Romney has taken over the course of the campaign, and every utterance made in the debates. Now, contemplate the mentality required to go bonkers with incredulity and disdain over proposing, "Hey, maybe it's a good idea if the Navy has more ships." A Cautious Electoral Map Projection from a Decision-Desk Vet I don't see a lot to disagree with in this assessment from John Ellis -- guru on all things political and financial, former Fox News decision-desk guy, Bush family cousin, and all-around interesting writer: 1. The great story of this election is Obama's collapsing support among non-Latino whites. Nowhere is this collapse more . . . complete than in the Southern states. That downdraft has taken North Carolina off the table and, I think, dooms Obama's efforts in Virginia and in Gold Coast and I-40 Florida. Those three states all lean Romney in my view.
2. I do think that Romney can win Pennsylvania if he made a major investment there, but it appears that he will not do so. If he doesn't, then I think Obama hangs on to win it. Ditto Michigan, although I think Pennsylvania is slightly better for Romney than Michigan for a number of complicated reasons that are too lengthy to get into here.
3. Polls indicate that Colorado is close and that Nevada is lean Obama. I was tempted to put Nevada in Obama's total, based largely on Mr. Ralston's view that the president will win the state. But I'm a week away from doing that. The Mormon vote there strikes me as a significant "x" factor. I am reasonably certain that Romney will win Colorado, based on a lot of input from friends in the state and pollsters whose judgment I trust.
4. Wisconsin has had two major, statewide recall elections in the last two years (one for State Supreme Court Justice and one for the recall of Governor Scott Walker). The Republicans won the State Supreme Court Justice recall election by a whisker. They won the gubernatorial recall election by a relative landslide. Things haven't much changed there, except that the 2012 presidential election features Paul Ryan as the GOP's vice presidential candidate. It's truly too close to call.
5. President Obama is slightly ahead in Ohio, but the race there seems destined to be decided by 25,000 votes or so. So I left it toss-up.
6. Iowa and New Hampshire are stone toss-ups. . . .
My somewhat larger view of the election is that Romney will win the popular vote. I'm assuming that Obama runs at 36-37% among non-Latino white voters (75% of the total vote, in all likelihood). That puts him at 27-28% of the total vote. If he does exactly as well as he did last time among non-white voters, he adds 21% to his national vote total. And he falls short of a majority.
So it may be that we end up with a Romney win nationally and an Obama win in the Electoral College. Go check out his blog, to alleviate my guilt for posting all of his assessment. ADDENDUM: Ryan Mahoney, regional press secretary of the RNC, shares a photo of a heck of a crowd for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan at Red Rocks Amphitheatre in Colorado.  Mollie Hemingway: "GOP guy in Colorado says 9400 seats at Red Rocks amphitheater. Had 15K requests for Romney event. C-470 at standstill." Crowd size doesn't tell us everything, but it tells us something about grassroots enthusiasm. To read more, visit www.nationalreview.com Save 75% . . . Subscribe to National Review magazine today and get 75% off the newsstand price. Click here for print-edition information. Click here for digital-edition information. National Review, Inc. | 
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