Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty July 25, 2014 At Least Our Intelligence Agencies Work! The good news: Our intelligence, military, and diplomatic professionals are just that, professionals, and they take their duties seriously. The tackle their significant challenges with dedication, smarts, guts, deep reserves of determination, and impressive analytical ability. In fact, they can often almost see into the future, getting a sense of what threats are around the corner . . . | Don't Miss the Conservative Event of 2014! | | | | The bad news: Foresight is only useful if it comes with a side order of "the will to act." In congressional testimony as far back as November, U.S. diplomats and intelligence officials made clear that the United States had been closely tracking the al Qaida spinoff [ISIS] since 2012, when it enlarged its operations from Iraq to civil war-torn Syria, seized an oil-rich province there and signed up thousands of foreign fighters who'd infiltrated Syria through NATO ally Turkey. The testimony, which received little news media attention at the time, also showed that Obama administration officials were well aware of the group's declared intention to turn its Syrian sanctuary into a springboard from which it would send men and materiel back into Iraq and unleash waves of suicide bombings there. And they knew that the Iraqi security forces couldn't handle it. The testimony raises an obvious question: If the Obama administration had such early warning of the Islamic State's ambitions, why, nearly two months after the fall of Mosul, is it still assessing what steps, if any, to take to halt the advance of Islamist extremists who threaten U.S. allies in the region and have vowed to attack Americans? In fresh testimony before Congress this week, McGurk revealed that the administration knew three days in advance that the attack on Mosul was coming. He acknowledged that the Islamic State is no longer just a regional terrorist organization but a "full-blown" army that now controls nearly 50 percent of Iraq and more than one-third of Syria. Its fighters have turned back some of the best-trained Iraqi units trying to retake key cities, while in Syria, it's seized nearly all that country's oil and natural gas fields and is pushing the Syrian military from its last outposts in the country's east. Meanwhile, over in Ukraine . . . The Russian military fired artillery rounds into eastern Ukraine on Thursday, a "clear escalation" of hostilities there, Army Col. Steve Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, said. Russia has about 12,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, Warren said. Russian tanks, artillery and rocket launchers have crossed into Ukraine to support separatists there. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has not spoken to his Russian counterpart about the artillery attack and has no plans to, Warren said. "This is a clear escalation," Warren said. The Russians have conducted artillery attacks on Ukraine military targets for the last several days, Warren said. The State Department also said Thursday they had evidence of the Russian attack. Remember all of those demands for an unimpeded international investigation? Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was blown out of the sky one week ago on Thursday, deepening tensions between Russia and the West and thrusting at least 10 countries whose citizens were on board into the middle of a war between Ukraine's government and pro-Russian rebels, who Western intelligence officials suspect shot the plane down. Yet for all of the diplomatic frenzy that has followed the disaster, there is no sign of an investigation here. At the field in Ukraine where the exploded remnants landed, there are no guards and no recovery workers, no police officers and no investigators. Early Thursday evening, there were almost no people -- just two curious 12-year-old girls looking at part of the tail of the Boeing 777… "There's no one out here," said Michael Bociurkiw, a spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, whose monitoring mission has been on the site every day since Friday. As for the arrival of international experts, "it's not like our door is being broken down." Meanwhile, back in the United States, the president is in Los Angeles . . .
. . . hanging out at the deli, discussing his jump shot, after a fundraiser.
This morning Charles Krauthammer tries to explain what's going on with our president: The preferred explanation for the president's detachment is psychological. He's checked out. Given up. Let down and disappointed by the world, he is in withdrawal. Perhaps. But I'd propose an alternate theory that gives him more credit: Obama's passivity stems from an idea. When Obama says Putin has placed himself on the wrong side of history in Ukraine, he actually believes it. He disdains realpolitik because he believes that, in the end, such primitive 19th-century notions as conquest are self-defeating. History sees to their defeat. "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice" is one of Obama's favorite sayings. Ultimately, injustice and aggression don't pay. The Soviets saw their 20th-century empire dissolve. More proximally, U.S. gains in Iraq and Afghanistan were, in time, liquidated. Ozymandias lies forever buried and forgotten in desert sands. That's probably a piece of the puzzle; Obama, like most of us, gravitates towards a perceived solution that doesn't require him to do anything difficult. But notice Obama doesn't rely on "the arc of the moral universe" in the domestic sphere or dealing with his opponents in the United States. He's not relying on karma, fate, or the law of unintended consequences in his push for a domestic agenda. Let's Meet in Raleigh, Shall We? A gentle reminder: 
ADDENDA: The other day in the office, other NRO-niks and I tried to come up with all of the movies and television shows that have referenced or mentioned National Review: Annie Hall, obviously; spider-killing is proud tradition at NR. Tom Selleck picked up a copy of National Review in an episode of Magnum, P.I. Robin Williams' Genie briefly imitates William F. Buckley in "Aladdin." NBC's Community offered a bizarre reference, although perhaps the magazine needs a "Make-Out Meter." Anyone remember any others? We could count Christopher Buckley's Thank You for Smoking as an honorary addition. Our Tim Cavanaugh wrote the family-friendly baseball flick, Home Run Showdown. Hopefully you've followed my coverage of reports of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, who seems to generate one eye-popping report after another about money being wasted, or resources being mismanaged, or other frustrating aspects of the U.S. effort in Afghanistan. There's another report coming out, but it's embargoed until midnight Sunday. I intend to have an article on Campaign Spot as soon as the embargo lifts, so check back in the early morning hours of Monday.
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