Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty July 7, 2014 With Midterms Four Months Away, Dashboard Is Blinking Red for Democrats John Couvillon of JMC Enterprises in Louisiana examined the turnout in states that had contested primaries for both Democrats and Republicans in statewide races this year and four years ago -- 14 states so far. Here's what he found, compared to four years ago: "Republican enthusiasm (percentage-wise) is stronger than it was in 2010, and (2) overall turnout volume is lower than in 2010, although Democratic turnout volume has deceased far more than Republican turnout." Republicans made up 55 percent of the turnout four years ago; this year they're 63 percent of the turnout. Of course, Democrats may have a particularly boring or lopsided set of primaries this cycle. Politico concludes, "With four months until Election Day, Republicans are as close to winning the Senate as they've been since losing it in 2006. They've landed top recruits to take on first-term senators in New Hampshire and Colorado, nominated credible female candidates in open-seat contests in Michigan and Iowa, protected all of their incumbents from tea party challenges and thwarted more conservative candidates that could have hurt the GOP's chances in states like North Carolina and Georgia."
You notice how it feels like Obamacare dropped out of the news, right? Don't worry. You'll be hearing about it again in the fall: Most state health insurance rates for 2015 are scheduled to be approved by early fall, and most are likely to rise, timing that couldn't be worse for Democrats already on defense in the midterms.
. . . With Democrats looking to hang on to Senate seats in many Republican-leaning states, they'll be hoping that the final numbers don't come in anywhere near the 24.6 percent hike that report from the anti-Obamacare Heritage Foundation projected for a family of four in Arkansas, or even the 13.1 percent increase in Alaska or 12.4 percent in Louisiana. So far, although no state has finalized its rate, 21 have posted bids for 2015. Average preliminary premiums went up in all 21, though only a few by double digits.
We know the Democrats will want to change the discussion to a new set of issues -- climate change! Infrastructure spending! Workplace inequality! But the "shiny object" strategy may not work well with so many worsening crises at home and abroad, as Da Tech Guy notices: It's hard to fathom now, but one of the major issues of the 2012 presidential campaign was Mitt Romney's 15-year leadership of the Boston-based private equity firm Bain Capital, which he co-founded. Two years later President Obama, who of course defeated Romney in '12, faces multiple crises, including scandals involving IRS targeting of conservative groups, deadly waiting lists at VA hospitals, as well as a collapsing Iraq, Russia's seizure of Ukraine, a still stagnant economy, and 300,000 illegal alien children crossing over our lightly watched southern border. None of these hotspots have anything to do with Bain Capital, other than, remotely, the rotten Obama economy. 'Reform Conservatives' Become Rock Stars & the Other Conservative Insurgency This weekend, Sam Tanenhaus wrote a lengthy cover piece in the New York Times Magazine profiling "reform conservatism" and its advocates, including a slew of friends of NR, past and present:
 Andrew Kelly, Adam White, Scott Winship, James Pethokoukis, Yuval Levin, Kate O'Beirne, W. Bradford Wilcox, Peter Wehner. Seated, from left: Michael R. Strain, April Ponnuru and Ramesh Ponnuru. Here's Tanenhaus and Hugh Hewitt, discussing what this movement is doing well so far -- policy prescriptions -- and what it, and perhaps the broader conservative movement, is still looking to get just right: HH: And there is where I think the article breaks down. A lot of us want to make that argument, that I talked to Justice Breyer for an hour about that problem, which is the framers knew liberty, they knew freedom, and your young reform cons want to talk about the child tax credit, which is wonderful. But a lot of the Republican Party wants to talk about the big issue of the size and scale of the federal government crushing everything, Sam. And no one really wants, that part of the party doesn't want to have this conversation. They want combat on the front lines over the size and scale of the federal government. ST: Well, one thing I'll say there, Hugh, is if you look closely at what Yuval Levin has written, and what I describe in summary as some of his thinking in this article, you'll actually see a very bold argument about not only just scaling down government, I think he really has an original idea here, but actually removing government as kind of the central force in the life of the society. Remember, he's very big on Edmund Burke. HH: Yes. ST: . . . in civil society. I think if Yuval, or if someone who understand his, Yuval's historical arguments, and has, you know, let's be frank here, sort of the grace and elegance of a Bill Buckley or an Irving Kristol, someone who could write that kind of lyrical essay about what America might really be like, could take Yuval's theory about how civil society can be at the center of our politics, and turn that into an argument that would connect exactly with the principal idea about reducing government that you're talking about. HH: And you just said… ST: I do think that's a missing piece. HH: You said grace and eloquence. William F. Buckley used every medium, you know this better than anyone, he used every tool available, whether it was the 600 word column, Firing Line, television, radio, debates, running for mayor. He was ubiquitous in the media of his time. And I don't know if these young reform cons are that good at this, or if anyone, Rubio, Paul, Cruz, yes, but do they get the necessity of that? Buckley was the consummate communicator. Kurt Schlichter wouldn't claim to be the next WFB -- few of us do, and I suspect that he would similarly roll his eyes at the tired, "you're no William F. Buckley" sneer from lefties. But Kurt is attempting to do one part of the equation, which is paint a picture of what we're fighting to achieve. His new book, Conservative Insurgency, is not pure righty wish fulfillment; in Kurt's vision of the not-so-distant future, things get worse before they get better. And perhaps in response to that national decline, the next generation of conservatives gets tougher -- and perhaps a bit more ruthless. One intriguing and troubling aspect of Kurt's future conservatives is that they'll do anything to win: Sixteen years of defying the liberal establishment's merciless counterinsurgency had endowed them with a ruthlessness that would ensure they would not hesitate to aggressively impose their conservative vision when given the chance. That ethic remains today within the conservative movement, even as critics now question whether the movement has strayed too far from the norms and values it had sought to revitalize. . . . Even today, the norms and customs that preceded the Obama administration have not been completely restored. A generation of conservatives has arisen that never experienced them; they largely know only political/cultural warfare in which principle does not always take priority over expedience. [Kurt's fictional future president, Carrie] Marlowe's "conservative court packing" illustrated the challenge. Faced with a liberal Supreme Court, Marlowe did not hesitate -- not even for a second -- to drive the impeachment of three liberal justices so she could pack the Court with insurgent jurists. She did the same in lesser courts -- Obama had overseen the end of the filibuster to create a majority on the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, and Marlowe engineered a scheme to repack it by adding 10 new seats. These, and other similarly aggressive actions, brought howls of outrage from liberals. A few more traditional conservative voices objected, but in vain. Sixteen years of facing ruthless aggression by the Obama and Clinton administrations had left the insurgents utterly indifferent to their objections and pleas for mercy. Kurt envisions a big, effective alliance between the traditional Right and younger, Libertarian-minded voters. As one character describes it: There was also drug law reform, which would bring in a lot of young people, libertarians, and especially minorities who were seeing a shocking number of their young men locked up. This was a tough bridge for cons to cross -- hell, watery-eyed stoners lazing about on their moms' couches halfheartedly watching reruns of Star Trek: Fifth Generation is everything we hate. But again, this was where conservative principles about small and limited government started crossing streams with our electoral self-interest. Did you ever see Ghostbusters? Not the remake but the original from back in the 1980s? Do you remember the power of crossing the streams? They had these lasers and if you crossed the streams it was really bad, except at the end of the movie they did that to destroy the giant marshmallow man. Anyway, we crossed the streams with drug law reform. I guess liberalism was the giant marshmallow man. And we sure fried it too. Kurt's a fan of Easter eggs as well. From one section featuring an interview with a future Hollywood producer: [Honda makes no effort to lower his voice as he speaks into his phone about the pioneering conservative comedy series about men under siege by a liberal world that he helped produce. "Cam, my man, here's my idea. Ready? We reboot Dudes as a movie . . . Listen, three words. Channing. Tatum. Junior. Hello? You still there? Yeah, well you talk to Jim, then my people will talk to yours. Two words. Ka. Ching! Bye now!"] A Pep Talk for the Right, Brought to You From the Sirius XM 80s on 8 Station Following up on Thursday's 1980s discussion, here's the long form of the routine I offered on Twitter that afternoon . . . As Republicans pick up the pieces from 2012, you are hearing a bit less of the very well-worn refrain, "We need to emulate the model of Ronald Reagan." And that's good, because constantly invoking Ronald Reagan probably makes those of us on the right seem like we're still living in the 1980s, fixated with returning to the 80s, like we have an Obsession with an Eternal Flame, and we're just Living on a Prayer. Let's be honest about our circumstances: The Tide Is High. We're up Against All Odds. We feel in Jeopardy from a Cult of Personality. It feels like The End of the Innocence, each time Another One Bites the Dust. The Heat Is On, In a Big Country. Amid Shattered Dreams, it feels like the economy's Free Fallin'. With Every Breath You Take, you sense gloom In the Air Tonight. Some say It's Just the Way It Is. Hey now, hey now. Don't Dream It's Over. Don't Do Me Like That. Don't Stop Believin'.
If Beds are Burning, We Didn't Start the Fire. We Built This City! And We're Not Going to Take It. It's time to Shout! As for the voters? People Are People. That Was Then, This Is Now. Let us be their Sledgehammer. We'll get Into the Groove, faster than you can say, Abracadabra! Now, In the Heat of the Moment, some skeptics may Take On Me, dismissing me as some Goody Two Shoes. Now, Do You Really Want to Hurt Me? Well, You Don't Mess Around With Jim. If You Don't Know Me By Now, What I Am is Hungry Like the Wolf. Every Day I Write the Book. And I'm Never Gonna Give You Up. Remember, in foreign affairs, we Rock the Casbah and have a View to a Kill. We know Everybody Wants to Rule the World. Especially… I-Ran. In economics, we know there's no such thing as Money for Nothing. We believe in Workin' for a Livin', because One Thing Leads to Another. Pretty soon, we'll be Puttin' On the Ritz and Back in the High Life Again!Don't let them tell you it will take The Longest Time. We believe in Freedom. Freedom! And our Voices Carry, One Way or Another.
Remember, It Ain't Over Until It's Over. So in short, my advice is Don't Worry, Be Happy. Celebrate! And Don't You Forget About Me. And don't let anyone tell you that your thinking is stuck in the 80s. ADDENDA: Matthew Continetti of the Washington Free Beacon writes: …the cultural and personal asides in Jim Geraghty's "Morning Jolt" are far more interesting than the dreary play-by-play of House Republican caucus meetings and Chris McDaniel skullduggery, more worth one's time than read-outs of President Obama's latest trip to Taylor Gourmet or Shake Shack or Great Falls or the Georgetown Waterfront Park. Yeah, over the weekend I hit another birthday. If you're looking for a gift for me, just give the book to someone else. You know the drill: The Weed Agency is . . . $9.97 on Amazon, $7.99 on Kindle, $9.97 at Barnes and Noble, $9.99 on Nook, and IndieBound can steer you to an independent bookseller near you.
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