Not Coming Soon to a Competitive-Senate-Race Campaign Trail Near You . . .

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NEW NRO BLOG: Unnaturally Political.

SLIDESHOW: Syrian Kurds Flee Fighting.

Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty

September 25, 2014

Good morning. We live in a changing world, my friends:

Not Coming Soon to a Competitive-Senate-Race Campaign Trail Near You . . .

Remember back in his first term, when Barack Obama assured Democrat Marion Berry that the reason Democrats wouldn't have a midterm debacle compared to 1994 because "you have me"?

We've come a long way, baby.

Responding to months of pleas from Democrats urging the White House to provide more help, the president and first lady will be going to places where there are competitive races — though only those in clearly Democratic territory, focusing on locations where the president's approval remains strong even as it's dropped pretty much everywhere else.

As expected, and as requested by the campaigns themselves, that will mean the president will avoid all but one Senate race — in Michigan — while the first lady will appear in Iowa on behalf of Bruce Braley. There's also some thought that she could head to New Hampshire for Senator Jeanne Shaheen, likely for a joint event with Governor Maggie Hassan playing up that they're the only two candidates for governor and senator from the same state who are both women.

But most of the Obamas' focus will be outside the Senate, and in reliably friendly parts of the country.

What's really interesting is what's missing from the list: No Colorado. No Virginia. No stop in Ohio for Ed Fitzgerald's gubernatorial bid. And despite that earlier paragraph:

Obama's also not currently planning on going to New Hampshire for Shaheen, whose recent polls show a clear Obama drag.

A Glimmer of Momentum for Ed Gillespie in Virginia

For much of the year, Virginia Republican Senate candidate Ed Gillespie polled quite badly — trailing by anywhere from 10 to 30 points. This morning, he finally gets some relatively good news; Quinnipiac puts him down by 9 points, and incumbent Mark Warner at 48 percent — still an underdog, but at least it's no longer a blowout.

In a fact that must infuriate the Gillespie campaign, Warner is doing pretty well among self-identified Republicans, even though he voted with Obama 97 percent of the time:

In the three-way matchup, Warner leads 94 — 1 percent among Democrats, with 3 percent for Sarvis. Gillespie leads 78 — 15 percent among Republicans, with 2 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters are split with 43 percent for Gillespie, 41 percent for Warner and 9 percent for Sarvis.

A Quick Point About the 'Early Voting Totals' in Iowa and North Carolina

You're seeing a bit of giddiness among Democrats about "the early voting numbers."
A little perspective, please.

In Iowa, Democrats can boast 68,000 registered members of their party have requested absentee ballots, and only about 35,000 registered Republicans.

But 1,295 registered Democrats have returned an absentee ballot; 1,129 registered Republicans have done the same.

For perspective, in the last midterm election Senate race in Iowa in 2010, Iowans cast more than 1.1 million votes.

In North Carolina, 2,236 ballots have been returned. 44.7 percent registered Democrats, 35.6 percent registered Republicans. Back in 2010, 2.6 million votes were cast.

This is kind of like that moment a half-hour or so after the polls close, when a handful of precincts have reported, and some people freak out with 1 percent of the vote counted.

Would Republicans prefer to be ahead in this very early indicator? Sure. But it's a waste of brain cells to spend time worrying about the early vote totals on the first couple days.

All Hands on Deck to Save Pat Roberts in Kansas!

A lot of Republicans were irritated about this decision from Senator John McCain:

U.S. Sen. John McCain plans to barnstorm the country on behalf of Republican Senate candidates in states such as Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Oregon.

However, McCain, R-Ariz., told The Arizona Republic that he intends to sit out the heated Senate battle in Colorado, where incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo, is in peril. McCain is a longtime friend of the Udall family and considers Udall's father, the late longtime U.S. Rep. Morris Udall, D-Ariz., a congressional mentor.

Asked if he was avoiding Colorado because of his long association with Mark Udall, McCain answered, "and his father, yes."

But for what it's worth, McCain is dropping by to help out in another race suddenly quite important to GOP hopes for a Senate majority:

U.S. Sen. Pat Roberts went on the defense with the D-word Wednesday, labeling Independent Greg Orman a Democrat and calling on voters to look at Orman's Democratic donations.

Playing to party faithful at the Johnson County Republican headquarters, Sen. John McCain, a Republican from Arizona, railed against Orman, who ran as a Democrat in 2006, as a President Obama-loving Democrat.

"He's a Democrat," McCain said. "He walks like a duck, and he quacks like a duck, and he is a duck."

An Orman victory doesn't doom the GOP hopes for Senate control, it just makes it harder.

And if you're thinking, "Of course McCain is helping Roberts, he's another moderate squish!" . . . that wasn't really the objection to Roberts:

"Sen. Roberts' lifetime ACU rating of 86, as well as his average of 89 during the Obama Era, shows his consistent support of conservative principles on a wide variety of issues. He has fought for the rights of the unborn, supported the repeal of the Death Tax and opposed many efforts to divert defense funds to big government domestic programs. In addition, Senator Roberts helped lead the successful fight to defeat one of the worst nominations by President Obama, that of Donald Berwick, who preferred the British system of government health care to ours, to head up the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Pat Roberts deserves the support of conservatives in the Republican Primary August 5." said ACU Director of Government Relations Larry Hart.

The objection to Roberts was mostly about his iffy status as a Kansas resident and his age (77 years). And look who's coming to Kansas to help out Roberts:

Former Alaska Governor, GOP vice presidential nominee and reality TV star Sarah Palin will also campaign with Roberts, a source close to the campaign confirmed Monday. She will appear as the "special guest" at an event on Thursday in Independence, Kansas.

Don't say she's not a team player!

ADDENDA: I'm scheduled to appear on the panel for Greta Van Susteren's On the Record this evening.

Don't forget, tomorrow I'll be hosting a book chat with Mike Gonzalez of the Heritage Foundation:

The gist:

Since 1965, millions of people have come to this country from Latin America and the Caribbean. Now accounting for more than 16 percent of the population, Hispanics have emerged as a decisive voting bloc that overwhelmingly skews liberal as they influence pivotal electoral races. But it doesn't have to be that way forever. In A Race for the Future, Mike Gonzalez describes what the term Hispanic means, correcting the erroneous assumption that it is a homogenous group and presenting a look at the challenges each nationality — Mexican, Puerto Rican, Dominican, and many others — faces in America.

Despite their growing political power, Hispanics have largely been kept separate from mainstream America. Many of them are consigned to an underclass status. Gonzalez examines exactly how bureaucratic decisions that encourage public assistance and discourage assimilation hinder Hispanics and allow them to be politically monopolized by progressives. He also shows how conservatives — by returning to their core values of community, industry, and independence — can begin to reverse this damaging trajectory and successfully enable Hispanics to flourish while standing firm on our principles.

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