| Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty September 9, 2014 Summarizing This Morning's Poll for Democrats: DOOM DOOM DOOM Good morning, Mr. President! With the midterm elections looming, Americans by a 10-point margin, 52-42 percent, see his presidency more as a failure than a success. Just 38 percent now approve of Obama's handling of international affairs, down 8 percentage points since July to a career low; 56 percent disapprove, a majority for the first time. Fifty-two percent say he's been too cautious in dealing with Islamic insurgents in Iraq and Syria. And the public is ahead of Obama in support for a military response to that crisis, with 65 percent in favor of extending U.S. air strikes to Syria. Advisor to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence says recovery bogus—crash coming soon. Learn more here…  | | | At home, with Obama holding off his promised executive action on immigration reform, a new low of just 31 percent approve of his handling of immigration. Fifty-nine percent disapprove, up by a broad 18 points from spring 2013, when progress on the issue seemed imminent. And good morning, Congressional Democrats! Registered voters divide by 46-44 percent between the Democrat and the Republican in their congressional district. Among those who say they're certain to vote, that goes to a 47-44 percent Republican-Democratic race, underscoring the GOP's customary advantage in midterm turnout. As a rough guide, when the Democrats lack a double-digit lead among registered voters in the generic matchup, they're at some risk. Indeed, independents side substantially more with GOP candidates – by 47-35 percent among registered voters. That puts all the more pressure on Democrats to boost their turnout, or suffer. Finally, "Registered voters are more likely to say they'll be casting their midterm ballot to show opposition to Obama than support for him, by 27 percent vs. 19 percent -- not an overwhelming gap, but one similar to the result on Bush in 2006, a sweep year for the out-party." Senator Mark Udall, Jerk Our Eliana Johnson, with another jaw-dropping story: In his first debate with Republican challenger Cory Gardner, Colorado senator Mark Udall stood behind Obama's cautious approach. In the course of an hour-long debate with Gardner in Grand Junction, Colo., Udall said that "ISIL does not present an imminent threat to this nation." He cited his membership on the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Senate Intelligence Committee to substantiate that assertion, and he even invoked the names of the American journalists murdered at the hands of the Islamic State in the course of his pleas for restraint. "I can tell you," Udall said, "Steve Sotloff and James Foley would tell us, don't be impulsive. Horrible and barbarous as those executions were, don't be impulsive, come up with a plan to knock ISIL back." Much like the president whose policies he staunchly defends, Udall took a mulligan: Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) apologized Monday for saying two American journalists who were recently executed by the Islamic State would caution the U.S. not to "be impulsive" as it weighs its options to combat the extremist group. "When addressing ISIL during this weekend's debate, I should not have invoked the names of James Foley and Steven Sotloff. It was inappropriate and I sincerely apologize," the senator said in a statement. "My intent was to emphasize the importance of taking the right next steps as we confront this serious threat. It is critically important for the United States, our allies and countries in the region to beat back ISIL. These terrorists are a serious threat to U.S. interests and allies in the Middle East, and Americans are counting on their leaders to get this right. I will continue to push the Administration and demand that our country's approach is both tough and smart." 
Kneel before Clod.
The Video That Might Cost an NFL Commissioner His Job Behold, Ray Rice, managing to put a sour mood across the NFL's opening weekend. Mark Hemingway asks, "Why was the Ray Rice video straw that broke the camel's back? We knew he knocked his fiancé out . . . how did people think that happened?" At Red State, Leon Wolf answers that question, with a good point for any of us who communicate for a living: We humans are weird creatures. It is one thing to know, intellectually, that Ray Rice knocked a woman unconscious in a hotel elevator. It is another thing to actually see it happen. Back when we all knew that Ray Rice had knocked Janay Palmer unconscious, Ray Rice faced a two game suspension from the NFL and still had his job with the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, the NFL and the Ravens both took criticism for that, but both entities felt that they could weather this criticism, with good reason. Now that all of America practically has actually seen the incident in question, the NFL and Ravens both know that standing behind Rice will simply not be tenable any longer, and so he finds himself out of a job and perhaps unemployable. The NFL deserves all the ridicule it is getting today for its laughable claim that it has never seen the video before today, but it is very clear that what forced the NFL's hand is that we, the public have now all seen it. Humans place inordinate value at an emotional level upon what they can see, as opposed to what is visible with all their other senses. A good amount of scientific study shows in fact that in many situations we place too much emphasis on visual cues taken from pictures and tend to divorce those pictures from what we know about the rest of the context about a fact, or ignore what information we don't have about context, which makes our understanding imperfect. As noted in this excellent piece from the New Yorker, divining the truth from a picture can sometimes be a challenge even for people who are highly trained almost exclusively to divine truth from pictures, like radiologists. None of this changes the fact, however, that as humans we react powerfully to what we can see and usually ignore what we don't, at least on an emotional level. If we hear that Ray Rice punched out his fiancée, and only see the aftermath, we're mad. If we see Ray Rice punching out his fiancée, we're furious. It may not be particularly fair to Ray Rice that he gets a third round of punishment from his employers, separate from the legal system, because more video of the incident reaches the public's eyes. But I'm just not that bothered about unfairness of the circumstances for a guy who knocked out his fiancée and, considering how hard her head hit that metal railing in the elevator, came chillingly close to inflicting traumatic brain injury. Monday night, word broke that "TMZ says they are dropping big news that the NFL turned a blind eye to the Ray Rice video." By the time you read this, this story may have taken another awful chapter. We'll see what they mean by "turned a blind eye." One wonders if NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell might have to fall on his sword as his decision to initially suspend Rice for a mere two games grows ever more inexplicable. Can he reassure the fan bases, the media, and the owners that he's got the good judgment to handle these sorts of disciplinary issues? The long-simmering issue of NFL player behavior may be reaching a tipping point. By some measurements, the arrest rate for NFL players is significantly lower than the public at large. To paraphrase what I heard on the car radio from ESPN's Colin Cowherd a few days ago, you're dealing with a population of young healthy men with extraordinary amounts of money and fame, residing in the nation's biggest and most glamorous cities and with very little to do for half the year besides stay in shape. Some of these guys come from rough neighborhoods and have no-good friends, and that doesn't count all of the opportunists who pop up once a young man, quite often with limited college education, suddenly has money to burn. He says he's surprised the arrest rate is as low as it is. A large portion of NFL player arrests are DUIs, reckless driving, drunk and disorderly, drug possession — not harmless, but not exactly surprising considering the circumstances. But we, the public, paying for those monster salaries and buying the jerseys and doing all the things we do to financially support the players, have a right to expect better behavior. Or perhaps we have a right to expect our legal system to stop letting professional athletes out with a comparable slap on the wrist. Aaron Hernandez is on trial for murder; the Cowboys' Josh Brent got 180 days in jail for a DUI car crash that killed his teammate, and Donté Stallworth served 30 days in jail for a DUI manslaughter charge after killing a pedestrian. (He's now signed with the Huffington Post Huffies as a national-security correspondent.) We've never seen anything like this befo- 
Okay, we've rarely seen anything like this before now.
America's Toy Manufacturers Break Innovative New Ground in Creating Awful Messes for Parents to Clean Up I am not a fan of Play Doh, as far as toys go. Give me Legos, any day of the week. I say this even though somehow the most pointy and odd-shaped Lego pieces somehow come alive in the middle of the night and crawl to any stretch of floor in the house where I walk barefoot. 
"We're coming to get you, Jim's feet . . ."
Check out the "Play Doh Launch Game", where your adorable little moppets hurl little balls of Play Doh into a rotating basket! Of course, every time they miss, your little balls of clay roll across the table, onto the floor, onto the walls, etc. 
… and recall the Saturday Night Live sketch, "Big Red", a commercial for a children's toy where a Viking's helmet sprayed some horrific red liquid all around the room, with the ominous disclaimer, "Caution: May irritate skin."  
ADDENDA: ExJon achieves something I've only dreamed of: getting praise for a one-liner from Dennis Miller:
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