Ebola: The Great Uniter!

Today on NRO

RALPH PETERS: Why our “messaging” won’t stop terror. The Joy of Killing for Allah.

JOEL GEHRKE: Scott Brown’s tough stances on immigration and foreign policy are wooing Granite State voters. New Hampshire’s Hawk.

LEE EDWARDS: Reagan made history with his speech 50 years ago; now Republicans need a new great communicator. Another Time for Choosing.

JOHN FUND: The most important elections you’re not hearing about. Eyes on the 31 Attorneys General Races.

SLIDESHOW: Long Ma, Spirit of the Dragon Horse.

Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty

October 27, 2014

Ebola: The Great Uniter!

Finally, Americans are coming together . . . over isolation!

Those who are quarantined:

Kaci Hickox, a nurse placed under mandatory quarantine in New Jersey, went on CNN on Sunday and criticized the "knee-jerk reaction by politicians" to Ebola, saying "to quarantine someone without a better plan in place, without more forethought, is just preposterous."

Hickox, an epidemiologist who was working to help treat Ebola patients in Sierra Leone, has tested negative twice for Ebola and does not have symptoms, she said. She is quarantined for 21 days at University Hospital in Newark.

You know you want to come! Get complete info at NRCruise.com.

"This is an extreme that is really unacceptable, and I feel like my basic human rights have been violated," Hickox told CNN's Candy Crowley on "State of the Union."

She described herself as "physically strong" but "emotionally exhausted."

Our A.J. Delgado observed, “Very strange to me that the same nurse is willing to go into EBOLA-infested areas to help . . . now has a prob with being in a tent for a while . . . I mean, if you're the type of selfless person who would go tend to Ebola-sufferers, why not agree to the quarantine if it can help others?”

This episode tells us something about the governor of New York:

New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) on Sunday revised a controversial policy to quarantine returning health-care workers from Ebola-stricken nations, under pressure from the Obama administration and medical experts over the aggressive measures.

Elaborating on the procedures, Cuomo said health-care workers who have been in contact with Ebola patients but do not show symptoms of the deadly virus can return to their homes but will be forced to remain there while being monitored by state health officials for symptoms. He said those being monitored can interact with family and friends . . .

The Obama administration said Sunday that it had expressed concerns to Cuomo and Christie about the “unintended consequences” of the quarantines and how they could deter volunteers from deploying to West Africa, where the spread of Ebola continues to rage.

“We have let the governors of New York, New Jersey and other states know that we have concerns with the unintended consequences . . . policies not grounded in science may have on efforts to combat Ebola at its source in West Africa,” said a senior administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to comment on the private discussions.

Obama says “jump,” Cuomo asks, “how high?”

Looks Like Nevada Democrats Are Sitting This Year Out. Who Else Will?

Let the great Jon Ralston lay out just how horrific the early-voting numbers are for Democrats out in Nevada:

The turnout nightmare continues for Democrats, who tried to juice it on Saturday by handing out Bill Clinton tickets at The Dooilttle Center in the heart of West Las Vegas. It did not work. Republicans lose early vote by 42 votes out of 12,000 cast. Dems have six more days to turn this around and/or hope for Election Day miracle.

Clark [County] totals with mail: 39, 982, GOP; 38,715, Dems; 15,851, others.

Before you start saying, “So what? Registered Democrats are still ahead,” note this county is the Democrats’ stronghold in the state. They need a huge advantage here to balance out the GOP advantages elsewhere.

Ralston notes, “It's 42 percent for GOP and 41 percent for Dems, which means Republicans still 11 points over their registration and Dems 3 percent below theirs. How many different words can I find for "disaster" for the Dems?”

As we noted last week, some of this reflects the fact that there isn’t a really big, competitive race on the ticket this year -- there’s no Senate race and Democrats effectively conceded the governor’s race. But the “meh” mood among Democrats is going to have a potentially huge impact on one Democrat-held U.S. House district, all of the non-governor statewide posts (currently held by Democrats), and races for the state legislature.

And if Nevada Democrats are tuning out because there’s no big statewide race on the ballot this year . . . how about all these other states with neither a competitive Senate or Governor’s race this year?

Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah, and Washington are states holding only elections for U.S. House of Representative seats, state legislative seats, and non-gubernatorial state officials.

Quite a few more states have gubernatorial or U.S. Senate races, but not particularly competitive ones: Alabama, California, Mississippi, New York, South Carolina, Tennessee. (Some would argue places like Texas and Ohio don’t have competitive governor’s races anymore, either.) Are we going to see Democratic turnout plummet in places like this, where there isn’t a convenient Republican bogeyman to motivate their grassroots to turn out?

The Magic Number for Holding a Lead until Election Day: 4 Percent

Looking back over Sean Trende’s chart…

. . . you can draw some conclusions that line up with what we would expect.

Candidates who lead by 4 percent or more in those closing two weeks are in really good shape. (This is usually around the margin of error for most polls.)

Candidates who lead by 3 points are still in pretty good shape, but not quite in a position to pick out the office drapes.

Candidates who lead by 2 points are in a much riskier position, it seems. Oddly enough, history suggests it’s better to go into Election Day with a 1-point lead than a 2-point lead.

Candidates with a 1-point lead are, obviously, not really in a great spot.

As this e-mail arrives, we’re shifting from the 10--12 day column to the 7--9 day column. Both CBS News and NBC News released a slew of polls on Sunday, shifting the Real Clear Politics averages -- but in most cases, not by much.

Republican candidates with leads of 4 percentage points or more Sunday evening included Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Tom Cotton in Arkansas, and Bill Cassidy in the head-to-head runoff matchup in Louisiana.

In Colorado, Cory Gardner leads by 2.8 percentage points, which would be rounded up to 3 on Trende’s chart.

In Iowa, Joni Ernst leads by 2.2 percentage points, which would be rounded down to 2. Uh-oh.

Here’s the other side of the coin: In North Carolina, Democrat Kay Hagan leads by 1.6 percentage points, which rounds up to 2. In New Hampshire, Jeanne Shaheen is at 2.2 percentage points.

Finally, Greg Orman’s lead is the RCP average is now six-tenths of a percentage point.

Meet Dan Sullivan, Watch Some Pretty Alaska Scenery

The National Republican Senatorial Committee would like you to meet Dan Sullivan -- U.S. Marine reservist, former Alaska Commissioner of Natural Resources, former Alaska attorney general, assistant Secretary of State, and as he puts it, “American by birth, Alaskan by choice.”

I have heard through the grapevine there’s a good chance that the next National Review cruise will go to Alaska next summer.

ADDENDA: Here’s my 6:15 a.m. or so appearance on Sunday’s Fox & Friends, discussing Friday’s report on large numbers of non-citizens voting in U.S. elections, and the increasingly strong case that our government either cannot or chooses not to distinguish between U.S. citizens and non-citizens.

Kevin Williamson profiles St. Petersburg, Florida mayor Rick Baker, and discusses Republicans’ need to address, compete, and develop a serious policy agenda for America’s cities. It dovetails well with my point from last week that Republicans’ inability to compete at all in Portland -- not even 30 percent of the vote -- is what crushes their hopes for a statewide win in Oregon, a pattern common in a lot of states.

For history buffs, my old boss from my Congressional Quarterly days, John Bicknell, has written a new nonfiction book, America 1844: Religious Fervor, Westward Expansion, and the Presidential Election that Transformed a Nation. Publisher’s Weekly declared, “Bicknell excels in bringing to life political figures such as Sen. Henry Clay and President James K. Polk. In addition to exploring deep-rooted issues of religious turmoil and westward expansion, Bicknell closely considers 1844’s great problem: the future of Texas. The territory’s annexation, the resulting war with Mexico, and, eventually, the Civil War were set in motion by Polk’s election to the presidency that year.”

Don't delay! Sign up today for the NR 2014 Post-Election Caribbean Cruise, and for our spectacular pre-cruise kick-off gala November 8th featuring Ambassador John Bolton and Senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio! Learn more here.

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