Now Added to the Anxious Pre-Election Landscape: Explosions, Hacking

Today on NRO

KEVIN D. WILLIAMSON: The coming of age of Lena Dunham. Pathetic Privilege.

CHARLES C.W. COOKE: What are students so afraid of hearing from Bill Maher? Maher-ophobia at Berkeley.

JONAH GOLDBERG: Congress should have more partisanship about ideas and less about the legislative process. Take the Hard Votes.

JOEL GEHRKE: Alaska Democratic senator Begich angers GOP colleague Murkowski by implying they’re allies. Are You My Supporter?

SLIDESHOW: Darth Vader for Ukrainian Prime Minister.

Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty

October 29, 2014

Now Added to the Anxious Pre-Election Landscape: Explosions, Hacking

American Electorate Status: Freaked the heck out. Next status: Private Hudson’s “Game over, man, game over!”

Freak-out Factor One:

An unmanned rocket that was to resupply the International Space Station blew up Tuesday night a few seconds after lift-off from Wallops Island, Va.

The Orbital Sciences rocket rose a short distance from the launch pad and then exploded in a ball of orange flame.

NASA confirmed that all personnel were accounted for, and there were no injuries in the explosion. However, it appeared that the explosion caused substantial damage on the ground in the launch area.

The cause of the explosion was not immediately known. But at lift-off, rockets are filled with highly volatile fuel.

CNN quoted a launch director as saying that he spacecraft contained “classified . . . equipment.” A crawl on the network’s coverage reported that the director had described the items as “crypto-equipment.”

Watch the video; the onlookers scream when they see and hear that secondary explosion. It’s probably an unfortunate tech failure inherent to the difficulties of getting enormous amounts of rocket fuel to ignite and generate thrust in the right way at the right time; launching a rocket is . . . well, rocket science.

But you know what was going through the minds of those people in that crowd: They hit us again.

Freak-out Factor Two: “Suspicious cyber activity has been detected on the computer network used by the White House and measures have been taken to address it, a White House official disclosed on Tuesday.”

So, is it easier to sneak into the White House, or the White House servers?

CNN’s Jim Acosta quoted a White House official: "Our computers and systems have not been damaged, though some elements of the unclassified network have been affected." My, that’s a generic term and passive voice.

Freak-out Factor Three: Probably nothing . . . but we don’t know if the government is showing all of its cards in what it knows about the Islamic State, potential “lone wolves,” and/or other Islamist extremists in our midst. And that’s perfectly fine.

The Department of Homeland Security on Tuesday announced heightened security measures at federal buildings in the District and nationwide, citing the recent shooting at the Canadian Parliament and threats from terrorist groups to attack the homeland.

DHS officials emphasized that the step was precautionary and not based on any intelligence about a specific terrorist plot. Rather, they said, the shootings in Canada and other events such as the ongoing U.S. bombing campaign in Iraq and Syria dictated that more security would be a wise measure. The increased security started over the weekend but was only announced Tuesday because of its sensitivity, they said.

Is it any wonder that Democrats' “war on women” rhetoric sounds increasingly silly to the electorate, at a time when Americans sense that they are in an actual war with terrorists and others who seek to harm them?

Obamacare’s Post-Election Surprises

Hugh Hewitt, pointing out the little post-election “gift” that Obamacare will give voters after the election:

Most are expecting 5 percent to 10 percent hikes, but there are rumblings of far nastier surprises.

Read this Denver Post report of a Colorado study of expected rates for individuals on the state's massively screwed-up exchange. (Not a failed exchange, like Oregon's or Maryland's, just a screwed-up exchange.) It begins:

Colorado health-insurance consumers relying on tax credits will see their share of premiums rise an average of 77 percent next year if they keep the same plans, according to the state's preliminary analysis.

While premiums overall are not expected to increase significantly in 2015, the way tax credits are calculated under the Affordable Care Act is creating challenges for Colorado consumers.

According to an analysis done for the Colorado Division of Insurance, the average share of costs for customers receiving tax credits in 2014 was $161.79 a month. In 2015, if they keep the same plans, their average share of costs after tax credits will be $281.01.

You've got to love that "[w]hile premiums overall are not expected to increase significantly in 2015" assurance, followed by the hammer of the rarity of radically decreasing tax credits.

Let Coloradans know!

Oregon Voters, Happy with the Scandals They Have

I wish there was reason for Republican hopes against Oregon governor John Kitzhaber, one of the most arrogant and unsuccessful governors in the country. Unfortunately, the portents are not good. They’re not awful, but they’re not what Republicans want to see a week away from Election Day:

Richardson has increasingly held up the Hayes scandal as a reason voters should distrust Kitzhaber who Richardson says has also "wasted millions" on projects including Cover Oregon and the Columbia River Crossing. Last week, Richardson called for U.S. Attorney Amanda Marshall to investigate allegations that Kitzhaber and Hayes used their public positions for personal financial gain.

In a breakdown of the figures, pollster Stuart Elway said that while 3 percent of voters moved away from Kitzhaber, another 4 percent moved toward the incumbent.

"Party loyalty and predisposition is insulating the scandal story," Elway said. "Partisans are moving in a predictable direction and independents are not paying attention.

"So far, the scandal is not showing much of an impact."

According to the Oregon secretary of state, 442,612 ballots had been turned in by Monday, about 20 percent of the eligible voters (the state is entirely vote-by-mail). Registered Democrats have returned 187,400 ballots (42 percent); registered Republicans returned 150,149 (33.9 percent). Before you start groaning about how bad that split is, keep in mind there are 831,324 registered Democrats in Oregon (37.9 percent) and 656,649 registered Republicans (29.9 percent).

So Oregon Republicans are actually doing a slightly better job of getting members of their party to vote (22.8 percent) than Oregon Democrats (22.5 percent). My understanding based on past voter turnout in Oregon’s mail elections is that we may see that GOP advantage increase a few points in the coming days. However, the partisan lean of the state may be so large that even better-than-normal GOP turnout and “meh” Democratic turnout may not be enough for a Republican win.

ADDENDA: I’m on my way to the National Review Institute gala dinner in New York City today, so posting on Campaign Spot will be largely dependent upon the Internet connection on the train. In the meantime, check out my NRO piece on the outlook for the key House races this year.

Headline: Ukrainian War Radicalizing Russia’s Extreme Right. I don’t doubt that’s the case, but if they’re “Russian extreme Right”, weren’t they pretty radical to begin with? Wouldn’t it just be simpler to write, “BAD GUYS GETTING WORSE”?

If you need a complete change from late election season stress, Americans for Prosperity released a new Facebook game called “Red Tape Rush”. Players work to clear the red tape over prescription pills by matching three like pills in a row . . .

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