The Democrats’ Giant Bet on Voters’ Short Memories

Today on NRO

RICH LOWRY: Amnesty by any other name is still amnesty. The Immigration Position that Dare Not Speak Its Name – As Usual.

MARK KRIKORIAN: Obama’s executive-order speech was notable for some of the things that went unmentioned. Laws Emanate from the White House Now.

QUIN HILLYER: Until someone else is president, the House should stick to its “no” vote on reform. No More Promises on Immigration.

DAVID HARSANYI: The next U.S. president will almost certainly be less inclined to try to pressure Israel. The Two-State Solution Is Dead.

SLIDESHOW: Meme Watch: #GruberGate.

Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty

November 21, 2014

The Democrats’ Giant Bet on Voters’ Short Memories

The Democrats’ plan: Hope “middle-of-the-road” voters forget about the executive order amnesty.

The president’s decision to use his executive powers to protect some 5 million undocumented immigrants from deportation is bound to draw a backlash from middle-of-the-road white voters. Republicans assailed Obama’s handling of immigration in the midterm elections, catering to a conservative and notably less diverse electorate with ads in states such as Arkansas and New Hampshire. Early polling shows significant suspicion of Obama’s unilateral action: An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found 48 percent of Americans preemptively opposed to the executive actions, versus 38 percent ready to endorse them.

As a political matter, then, the president’s wager is this: that the voters with the longest memories will be those in the rapidly-growing, next-generation national electorate, heavily inflected by socially progressive young people and a growing Latino population.

Will those middle-of-the-road white voters forget? Note the concession by Politico that one doesn’t have to be an “extreme” “right-wing” “xenophobic” voter to object to this policy.

Mo Elleithee, the Democratic National Committee’s communications director, vowed that the GOP would pay a price for its heated attacks on the White House’s policy: “The rhetoric coming out will come back to haunt them. We are capturing every bit and will make them answer for it. They are not just alienating, they are offending, the [Hispanic] community.”

Republicans believe that Obama is inviting deep punishment with his actions this week. Not only does the GOP sense genuine anger among voters about the ongoing mess on the border, but party leaders say that Obama’s orders will look like pure arrogance, the brazen actions of a discredited president.

Though the GOP has struggled to assemble a viable, diverse coalition in national elections, the party is on a hot streak in large, traditionally Democratic states across the Midwest – big, blue-collar battlegrounds like Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan, where a certain segment of Democratic-leaning, populist white voters may recoil from what they perceive as overreach on the border.

A few other points to throw in here.

How many illegal immigrants will be able to get the documents they’ll need to make their case about length of time in the United States or ties to family? How many are literally “undocumented” and came here with the shirts on their backs, or lost their documents during their journeys or life in the U.S.?

For those immigrants who qualify, Salas said it will be important for them to begin securing original copies of documents that will prove how long they have been in this country as well as establish legal family ties that may be important to their case. They may need to go to the consulate of their country of origin, or to their school districts or places of former residence to obtain proof.

Supporting evidence that may be required include birth certificates, family and adoption records, legal guardianship records, school records, passports and other official documents, Salas says.

They may need to prove continuous residency over a period of years, which can be established with pay stubs, utility bills, rental agreements or other ordinary records.

Yes, this decision occurs in the context of the rebuke to the president in the midterms. But this also comes after the president’s promises have been proven to be worthless -- if you like your plan you can keep your plan, if you like your doctor you can keep your doctor, your premiums will go down, the “red line” in Syria, al-Qaeda is “decimated” and the Islamic State is the “jayvee team”, and so on. (Michael Graham identifies some of Obama’s “if you like your plan” moments in last night’s speech here.)

How many illegal immigrants want to come out of the shadows and identify themselves to law enforcement based upon this promise?

Then the question of unforeseen complications arises. After the stimulus, Obamacare, our alleged breakthrough with Iran, our coalition against the Islamic State, and so on, we see a pattern with this administration dealing with complicated problems with even more complicated solutions. These solutions rarely proceed exactly as planned, and the administration seems blindsided by the surprise complications and problems. They set up the executive-order DREAM Act, then are surprised by droves of unattended children crossing the border. They pass Dodd-Frank; we learn in June, “regulators still haven't completed key parts, including standards for the mortgage-securities market and tougher regulations for credit-rating firms,” four years after passage. They make grand promises about taking care of veterans and then are shocked to learn about widespread hidden delays and unreported problems. We pledge a few months of “advise and assist” to the Iraqi Army, hoping that will change the equation in the fight against the Islamic State.

What’s going to be the unforeseen consequence of this decision?

Hillary: Three Cheers for This Executive Amnesty

Tell me again how Hillary Clinton is going to win back the working-class white voters for the Democrats. Her statement from last night:

I support the President's decision to begin fixing our broken immigration system and focus finite resources on deporting felons rather than families. I was hopeful that the bipartisan bill passed by the Senate in 2013 would spur the House of Representatives to act, but they refused even to advance an alternative. Their abdication of responsibility paved the way for this executive action, which follows established precedent from Presidents of both parties going back many decades. But, only Congress can finish the job by passing permanent bipartisan reform that keeps families together, treats everyone with dignity and compassion, upholds the rule of law, protects our borders and national security, and brings millions of hard-working people out of the shadows and into the formal economy so they can pay taxes and contribute to our nation's prosperity. Our disagreements on this important issue may grow heated at times, but I am confident that people of good will and good faith can yet find common ground. We should never forget that we're not discussing abstract statistics—we're talking about real families with real experiences. We're talking about parents lying awake at night afraid of a knock on the door that could tear their families apart, people who love this country, work hard, and want nothing more than a chance to contribute to the community and build better lives for themselves and their children.

Quite the brave stance to say we’re talking about “real families” and not merely “abstract statistics”!

Mass Amnesty Advocates: This Isn’t Enough

Have no illusions; this will not be enough to placate advocates of mass amnesty. Although I wonder if Republicans can argue that because this order -- which does not create a path to citizenship -- is sufficient, and because it’s sufficient, there’s no need for any further action beyond securing the border.

Emboldened by a program that allowed them to remain in the U.S., hundreds of immigrant youths two years ago championed their next fight: to bring their illegal-immigrant parents out of the shadows, too.

“As we celebrate our victory, we remember our moms and dads…who are still undocumented,” Cristina Jimenez, managing director of United We Dream, which represents young undocumented people, told the conference in Kansas City, Mo.

Now, the so-called Dreamers, whose campaign propelled the Obama administration to offer them a reprieve from deportation and an authorization to work, are absorbing the fact that their parents are being excluded from an expansion of the very program—DACA, or Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals—that they pushed for and that is the template for President Barack Obama’s new plan.

“It’s a bittersweet moment,” said Erika Andiola, 27 years old. “We have another big victory for the movement, but my mother isn’t among the folks benefiting.”

The Mexican-born resident of Arizona was among undocumented youth leaders who took the stage at the 2012 event to share their families’ stories. They said they wouldn’t feel whole until their parents also won the chance to stay in the U.S. Ms. Andiola’s mother was among parents in the audience.

ADDENDA: The content of this week’s podcast with Mickey White is intended for mature audiences. Topics include scientist shirts, public breastfeeding, Kim Kardashian, and other subjects not suitable for discussion by those under 18.

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