| Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty November 17, 2014 Terrific to be back! The morning’s headlines, before we get to the cruise roundup: Drug Enforcement Administration agents conducted surprise inspections of National Football League team medical staffs on Sunday, suspecting the NFL teams dispense drugs illegally to keep players on the field in violation. I guess it was a good week to have a bye week. The Islamic State beheaded another American. Yes, Congress has a full plate with executive amnesty, Obamacare enrollment opening again, the Obama administration's negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, Obama’s plans for “net neutrality,” the U.S. – China climate-change deal, and so on, but at some point the new leadership is going to have to tackle the thorny problem that our strategy against the Islamic State doesn’t appear to be working. David Axelrod declares, “As one who worked hard to make ACA and its benefits clear, let me say: if you looked up ‘stupid’ in dictionary, you'd find Gruber's picture.” So glad the Obama administration paid a guy so “stupid” $400,000. What (Some of) You Missed on the National Review Post-Election Cruise 
Beats a polar vortex, doesn’t it? A bit of 2016 talk… Allen West pointed out that you don’t often see two presidential candidates from the same state competing against each other for long — their bases of support among donors, activists, and volunteers usually overlap and they can’t sustain two candidates simultaneously. At this very early date, the potential Republican 2016 field includes two candidates from Florida (Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio), two from Texas (Ted Cruz and Rick Perry), and two from Wisconsin (Scott Walker and perhaps Paul Ryan). Ned Ryun, founder of American Majority and CEO of Voter Gravity, mentioned Carly Fiorina’s name more than once as possible figure on the 2016 GOP ticket. West named Ohio governor John Kasich as a potential presidential candidate who could come on strong; Ryun could not suppress his sense that Ohio conservative grassroots activists have some serious gripes with Kasich. John Fund pointed out that there’s actually several mini-primaries playing out in the coming year: the money primary, the staffing primary (who can build a national network of supporters), the consultant primary (who’s hiring the campaign managers, ad men, pollsters, organizers, and so on, with big wins under their belt from previous cycles), the ideas primary, and for lack of a better term, the “voice of social conservatives” primary. I asked my panel of Ryun, West, Eliana Johnson, Guy Benson, and Fund to name the 2016 Republican ticket. Most hesitated to make a public prediction, but said it was likely to be a governor and someone who had demonstrated an ability to win in blue or purple states. When I declared, tongue-in-cheek, that ticket had already been decided in advance and that the correct answer was Scott Walker-Susana Martinez, the audience seemed pretty darn pleased by that combination. Most of the NR cruisers I spoke to expressed overwhelming hesitation about Jeb Bush -- and maybe hesitation is the kind way of putting it — out of concerns of the dynasty argument and his stances on a path to citizenship and Common Core that are at odds with many in the grassroots. Tim Phillips, president of Americans for Prosperity, said his organization has the largest and most far-reaching operations in Florida. “If the Republican candidate doesn’t win Florida in 2016, he doesn’t win the presidency,” he said. Bing West thinks that someone in the Obama administration’s national-security inner circle will leave in the not-too-distant future, perhaps Chuck Hagel or Susan Rice. Jay Nordlinger: “Ralph Reed is like the Dick Clark of the conservative movement -- we get older, but he looks the same, decade after decade.” Our Kathryn Lopez, who is roughly as Latina as Elizabeth Warren is Native American, revealed she was invited to a White House Cinco de Mayo celebration, presumably entirely because of her surname. Jumping off a John Fund comment, I don’t see how Hillary Clinton can be the first woman president when Valerie Jarrett has been running the country for six years. Cartoonist Michael Ramirez revealed that in his cartoons of President Obama, he usually includes ashtrays and cigarette boxes, and when he draws Obama sitting at his desk in the Oval Office, the photos on the desk are all of himself. Skip down to the addenda for information on next year’s cruise . . . Much Lighter Notes, With a Bit of Salty Sea Air In St. Maarten, I participated in a yacht race, as a thoroughly land-lubbing son who has utterly failed to follow in his dad’s naval tradition. 
Along with spider-killing, yachting is another National Review tradition.
When we arrived at the docks, I was pleasantly surprised we would be racing in two famous boats. The first was the Stars and Stripes. Even if you’re not a competitive sailing fan, you may recall that back in 1983, Dennis Conner infamously lost the America’s Cup for the United States after a 132-year winning streak, the longest recorded winning streak in any sport, ever. After a great deal of humiliation, including getting kicked out of the New York Yacht Club, Conner came back and won it four years later. 
The 1980s were awesome.
The other was Canada II, one of very few boats to sail in two America’s Cup races, first as Canada I in the 1983 and then with new modifications in 1987. (I just learned that Stars and Stripes ’83, the one that lost the cup, was built by . . . Geraghty Marine.) My goals, as a rookie sailor, were to not get seasick and not do anything stupid. Many of the other passengers — picture the all the elderly relatives from Seinfeld — certainly sounded like they were veteran sailors. I was picked to be on the Canada II team, and relieved when I was told to sit up front, duck down, and be a “backseat grinder” and that I didn’t have to do anything at first. My main job was to try not to get hit by the swinging sail and the various ropes and pulleys and other parts of the sailboat, after being casually informed that one of the moving parts could rip off a finger. About a third of the way into the race, they asked me to step in as a “primary grinder” -- one of the guys near the front who turn the crank as fast as they can on orders, forward or backward, to trim or hoist the sail. It’s actually pretty fun. The crewman would say, "primary grinders, ready . . . 1, slow, go! . . . Now stop! . . . Ready . . . 2, go! Hard! Hard! Now stop!" and we would be cranking as fast as we could or slow, depending on what they told us to do. Meanwhile, the bunch of older guys who had been talking such a good game on shore were, shall I say, not as attentive as they should have been, with the captain and the crew periodically reminding them what they were supposed to be doing. Look, Uncle Leo, I may be a rookie, but at least I’m listening for orders. We had the lead . . . and then we lost the lead . . . and then we had the lead again . . . as we went into the third and final turn, the Stars and Stripes caught up fast! Then, in the final stretch, the wind died down! Both boats slowed… and then when the wind picked up, Captain said, “It’s going to be really close!” And then we won! I like to think Buckley would be proud of our victory and my personal failure to lose my lunch in a spectacularly embarrassing manner. The Left, More Toothless Than We Think An observation for those who hesitate to fully participate in debates, because they don’t want to deal with the volcanic, hateful, nasty responses from uncivil lefties . . . Before the cruise I posted this destined-to-be-controversial idea to nearly guarantee a Republican win in 2016 by having GOP-controlled swing states -- Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, and Nevada -- change their laws to award their electoral votes to the winner of each congressional district in the state (as Maine and Nebraska do). It’s extremely unlikely to happen, and I’m not sure I really fully endorse the idea; if I were an Ohio Republican, I might not want my state to become an afterthought to the two major-party presidential candidates. A lot of residents of swing states really enjoy having the campaigns devote enormous resources to winning their votes, as opposed to the thirty-five or so states that are largely ignored after primary season. Secondly, it would probably be short-lived. Democrats would be apoplectically furious and independents probably disgruntled at a naked attempt to end the 2016 election before it even began. The backlash would be huge and those GOP state legislative majorities would probably be short-lived. Another point is that it could backfire for the Republican nominee. That candidate could well win, say, Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes. Under this system, instead of getting all of 18 electoral votes, the Republican would get 14 electoral votes (twelve currently GOP-held House districts and two for winning statewide) and the Democrat would get four. Anyway, as expected, the post made some liberals’ heads explode. But only after looking around did I see the predictable responses from the likes of Matt Yglesias, Salon, and somebody I had never heard of over at AmericaBlog . . . and I didn’t even get much hate mail. Maybe there was furious reaction on Twitter, but I didn’t notice. Liberals used to want to tell you, personally, what a terrible person you are. Now they’re content to tell each other what a terrible person you are. Media Matters, Salon, Vox . . . Other than send a lot of hateful messages your way, there’s really not a lot that the Left’s media wing can do to you. In the Week, some guy named Ryan Cooper called me a “nihilist” . . . and absolutely nothing in my life changed. Yes, every once in a while the whole Left will put one individual in their sights like Brendan Eich. Yes, we periodically wonder, “Is this the day I get gang-audited by the IRS for saying something the administration doesn’t like?” But most of the time, the Left’s fury is going to be less consequential than you expect.
So speak your mind, without fear. You may be surprised by who agrees with you. ADDENDA: If you didn’t go on the cruise and find yourself wishing you had, the next one is from July 18-25, 2015, and departs from Seattle and sails to Alaska. Our guest speakers already include retiring representative Michele Bachmann, pollster Pat Caddell, economist Art Laffer, author Andrew Klavan, Townhall’s Katie Pavlich, and of course a large gaggle of NR editors and contributors, including myself. Jay Nordlinger said a cruiser described it as “Conservative Disneyland.” It’s conservative fantasy camp. You may never get a chance to meet your favorite movie stars, musicians or professional athletes, but on the cruise, you’re hanging around with us, talking shop and non-shop topics, morning, noon and night. Listen to panel discussions and interviews, talk with us, drink with us, eat with us . . . After my sailing experience, I would say you can “grind with us,” but some might interpret that nautical term completely differently. From Our Sponsor:
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