America Is Suddenly Gripped by Jeb-Mania . . . or Something Like It

Today on NRO

JONAH GOLDBERG: Obamacare architect Jonathan Gruber should be on Time magazine's cover. The Real Person of the Year.

JIM GERAGHTY: Bushes and Clintons have long intermingled. Is Jeb Ready for Hillary?

JILLIAN KAY MELCHIOR: The de Blasio is actually cracking down on illicit cigarettes. Bill de Blasio and the 'Minor Offense'

KEVIN D. WILLIAMSON: America's prisons are a disgrace. Our Jails Are a Scandal.

SLIDESHOW: Battle of the Bulge.

Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty

December 17, 2014

America Is Suddenly Gripped by Jeb-Mania . . . or Something Like It

The editors of National Review, on Jeb Bush:

Jeb Bush, who says he is considering running for president, is a strong conservative. As governor of Florida from 1999 through 2007, he advanced conservative goals on taxes, school choice, privatization, racial preferences, the right to life, and many other issues. He did all this and left office popular in a swing state — but one that became more conservative during his time in its politics. And the state's schools, by all accounts, got a lot better thanks to his efforts.

Many conservatives disagree with Bush on various issues — we certainly do — and have other reservations about his candidacy. None of that should lead any conservative to doubt that he is a friend and ally, and an extraordinarily accomplished one. He deserves a fair hearing, and we intend to give him one.

My colleague Charlie Cooke:

I am fundamentally opposed to his candidacy on more basic grounds: Namely, that he's the wrong man, at the wrong time — and in the wrong country, too. "As loathsome and un-American as it may seem to hold someone's family name against him," Michael Brendan Dougherty wrote earlier this week, "this point needs to be emphasized: the GOP and the country don't need another Bush." Dougherty is right. The United States is a republic, and in republics the citizenry should be reflexively nervous about dynasties, regardless of how much they like their individual members. Certainly, America has survived the emergence of great and powerful families before. President John Quincy Adams was President John Adams's son; President Benjamin Harrison was President William Henry Harrison's grandson; and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt was President Theodore Roosevelt's fifth cousin. (These relationships, you will note, get less and less intimate as times goes on.) But these were departures from the norm, rather than the norm itself. If Jeb Bush does manage to make it all the way to the top, we will be in uncharted dynastic territory — territory that, frankly, should begin to worry us.

Your friendly neighborhood Morning Jolt writer:

More recently, former president George W. Bush has referred to Bill Clinton as "my brother from another mother" and to Hillary Clinton as his "sister-in-law." On September 11, 2013, Jeb Bush, chair of the National Constitution Center, honored the former secretary of state with the organization's Liberty Medal, marking Clinton's "lifelong career in public service." At a March conference on education, Hillary Clinton praised Jeb Bush as someone "who really focused on education during his time as governor in Florida, and who has continued that work with passion and dedication in the years since."

Sigh.

Insert all the standard boilerplate about the joy of friendship and personal relationships, and how political opponents don't need to be lifelong enemies. Yes, it's nice that the 1992 election results didn't cause these two families to hate each other forever. Yes, it's nice that the former presidents have come together to help noble causes and can unite to help charities and the vulnerable when they need it.

But come on, man.

. . . Hillary's philosophy of government, approach to public power, foreign-policy vision, vindictiveness to critics, and record of leadership matter, and the Republican party's grassroots voters have good reason to require a nominee who doesn't think of his Democratic rival as part of his family.

Over the past six years, we on the right -- and in particular, the previous Republican nominee -- have been proven right time and again. Russia is indeed behaving like our preeminent geopolitical foe. Negotiating with the Taliban was a stupid idea. We knew leaving absolutely no U.S. military presence in Iraq was a formula for trouble. We never dismissed ISIS as a "jayvee team." Democrats didn't need to pass Obamacare for us to know what was in it. The Obama team scoffed at Romney's idea of giving veterans vouchers for care at private hospitals, assuring us that the Department of Veterans Affairs was reducing the backlog and giving our veterans the care they deserved. We talked about the need for a secure border decades before Central America decided to turn our border into a giant open-air day care center.

We do not like Hillary Clinton. We do not like her philosophies, her decisions, or the weapons-grade pabulum that she stuffs in her books and offers for six figures per speech. Perhaps in person she is warm and funny and all of those things her hagiographic media fans insist. But her record in public life -- and that of her allies, and her party -- has been an absolute disaster for the country for the past six years, and the 2016 Republican nominee needs to be able to make that case and win that argument six days a week and twice on Sundays.

Perhaps Jeb Bush can be that man. But to do so, he'll have to bring his A-game to the task of thoroughly defeating his metaphorical sister-in-law.

Just How Far Is North Korea Willing to Go to Derail a Critical Movie?

Up until now, the hacking of Sony Pictures -- suspected to be the work of North Korea, in response to the upcoming comedy film The Interview -- has been mostly fun and games as long as you don't work in Hollywood. (Our Tim Cavanaugh points out that we're all chuckling about messages that constitute stolen property.)

The furious reaction from Pyongyang is particularly ironic, since having a hostile foreign state with nuclear weapons throw a temper tantrum and/or launch a cyber-war is basically the greatest publicity a film could possibly want. Considering the way they're reacting, you would think The Interview has actual footage of Kim Jong Un dancing "YMCA" in pink underwear or something. (Actually, the film's climax features an actor playing Kim Jong Un meeting a spectacularly unfortunate end. Spoiler and content warnings for that link.)

The fun just stopped:

The Sony hackers have threatened a 9/11-like attack on movie theaters that screen Seth Rogen and James Franco's North Korean comedy "The Interview," substantially escalating the stakes surrounding the release of the movie.

The attackers also released the promised "Christmas gift" of files. The contents of the files are unknown but it's called "Michael Lynton," who is the CEO of Sony Pictures Entertainment.

"The world will be full of fear," the message reads. "Remember the 11th of September 2001. We recommend you to keep yourself distant from the places at that time. (If your house is nearby, you'd better leave.) Whatever comes in the coming days is called by the greed of Sony Pictures Entertainment."

Past messages have included budgets to Sony films, salary information of top executives, and employee medical records and social security numbers.

There have been suspicions that the attack may have been launched by North Korea in retaliation for "The Interview's" depiction of an assassination attempt on Kim Jong-un. The country has denied involvement but praised the attacks.

North Korea -- or somebody working on their behalf -- wouldn't be dumb enough to launch a terror attack on American movie theaters on Christmas Day, would they?

Somebody's getting nervous.

"The Interview" stars Seth Rogen and James Franco have canceled all upcoming media appearances following the latest threats made against theaters showing the movie, Variety has confirmed.

The duo has withdrawn from previously scheduled press appearances, including Rogen's Thursday appearance on "Late Night with Seth Meyers" and a chat with Buzzfeed Brews, leading up to "The Interview's" Christmas Day release.

According to insiders, Rogen and Franco are still scheduled to appear at Thursday's New York special screening of "The Interview." The two were at the Los Angeles premiere last week, but didn't do press interviews.

Sometimes North Korea's idea of saber-rattling is drawing the saber and stabbing you:

The ROKS Cheonan sinking occurred on 26 March 2010, when the Cheonan, a Republic of Korea Navy ship carrying 104 personnel, sank off the country's west coast near Baengnyeong Island in the Yellow Sea, killing 46 seamen. A South Korean-led official investigation carried out by a team of international experts from South Korea, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Sweden presented a summary of its investigation on 20 May 2010, concluding that the warship had been sunk by a North Korean torpedo fired by a midget submarine.

The Norks' entire concept of deterrence, and what kind of risk is acceptable in their metronomic brinksmanship, is completely different from ours.

Maybe the threat to movie theaters is nothing but bluster. But we've seen a gunman shoot up the Canadian Parliament, a guy out on parole take hostages and kill hostages in an Australian chocolate shop, and the Taliban massacre children in a school. The sense of what's really "unthinkable" in our chaotic world gets a little narrower, week by week.

Fall, Little Ruble, Fall

Just call it "the Rublitchka."

International economics, punishing Vladimir Putin in ways our grab-bag of sanctions never could:

The severity of the current crisis became apparent by Tuesday. The ruble had lost nearly 20% in just one day. So the Central Bank, Russia's version of the Federal Reserve, held an emergency meeting and raised interest rates to 17% from 10.5%.

The move was meant to strengthen the ruble, to keep people from selling. Wealthy Russians have taken more than $125 billion out of the country, and slashed oil earnings mean there are less export earnings to convert into rubles.

The rate hike hasn't appeared to work. But even if it does, that neck-snapping hike will make it hard for the economy to breathe. Once again, the Russia people will go through wrenching economic hardship because their leaders are following foolish, grandiose policies.

Only recently authorities had predicted a mild recession for next year. That is all changing now. Instead of the original government forecast of a 0.8% decline, the Central Bank said that if oil stays under $60 a barrel, the economy could contract more than 4.5%. That is a deep and painful recession.

Living standards are now sure to slide.

The only problem is, this more or less feeds into Putin's "us against the world" philosophy, and he'll no doubt blame a conspiracy of international bankers, the go-to scapegoat of a particular brand of autocratic, power-hungry, expansionist European leaders.

Our Nat Brown:

While the country has sufficient reserve funds to weather the short-term storm, the medium-to-long term is another question entirely, says Natasha Udensiva, a managing partner at Eurasia Energy Associates and a lecturer in international affairs at Columbia University. How long might the Russians be able to maintain their current stance? "They say they'll be fine for two, three years," Udensiva tells NRO. "I think they'll be fine for at least one year and a half. Despite this huge inflation and all the terrible things going on in the country, they still have a lot of assets."

Tom Rogan:

This informs the larger strategic issue. Western leaders believe that their sanctions, which are relatively weak, will pressure Russia to make a geographical compromise. But for Vladimir Putin, the stakes are far higher. He sees Ukraine through the prism of a philosophical identity, as a foundation of Russia's timeless soul. In this view, Ukraine isn't only about land; it's about patriotic prestige. To reinforce this point, Putin offered a dig at post-patriotic Europe: "If for some European countries national pride is a long-forgotten concept and sovereignty is too much of a luxury, true sovereignty for Russia is absolutely necessary for survival." And as his standoff with the West continues and he grapples with economic weakness, Putin is likely to become even more unpredictable.

ADDENDA: Victories cure a lot of injuries: "In the new poll, 47 percent say they have a favorable impression of the Republican Party, compared with 33 percent in the month before the midterm elections. An equal percentage have an unfavorable view, which marks the first time in six years that fewer than half of Americans said they saw Republicans negatively.

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