American Politics Should Not Require So Much Travel to Iowa in Winter

Today on NRO

JOHN FUND: Clear winners and losers emerged from the first major candidate huddle in Iowa this weekend. 2016: It Begins.

QUIN HILLYER: There's no hiding Huckabee's highly problematic record in Arkansas. Reality Check on Huckabee.

JOEL GEHRKE: House conservatives are tired of losing fights with leadership. Now, they're doing something about it. Meet the Freedom Caucus.

KEVIN D. WILLIAMSON: How little Team Know-it-All knows. Davos's Destructive Elites.

SLIDESHOW: Political Footwear.

Morning Jolt
. . . with Jim Geraghty

January 26, 2015

George H.W. Bush Gave Bill Clinton a Heads-Up about Jeb's Campaign

See, this could be problematic . . .

Former president [Bill Clinton] got a "heads-up" from the camp of President George H.W. Bush a few days before Jeb Bush made his surprise Facebook announcement in December that he would "actively explore" a campaign. The two former presidents have developed a friendly bond, partly because of their work together on earthquake relief for Haiti.

With all due respect to the distinguished Bush family, will members of that family be giving the Clinton family a heads-up on all of the key maneuvers during the campaign? The elder Bush is a perfect gentleman, but his son will be campaigning in a political culture and competing against an opponent that eats up perfect gentlemen for lunch.

American Politics Should Not Require So Much Travel to Iowa in Winter

A great big crowd of conservatives met in Des Moines, Iowa, this weekend to watch aspiring presidents kiss the ring of Representative Steve King.

Okay, that's a metaphor, but you know each contender in town intensely hoped to leave a lasting impression with the socially-conservative, staunchly anti–illegal immigration congressman.

Our Eliana Johnson was there and brought back this key takeaway:

The love affair between the Iowa voters and Ted Cruz is going strong.

The Texas senator, pacing across the stage at the Iowa Freedom Summit in a tan jacket and slacks, praised the state's "unique and special role in the political process." Iowa voters, he said, have a responsibility "to scrutinize every candidate for national office, to look them in the eyes and to hold them to account."

The tea-party darling urged them to be discerning when presidential contenders begin streaming through the state vaunting their conservative credentials. It helps, of course, that nobody can out-conservative Ted Cruz.

"Every candidate is going to come in front of you and say I'm the most conservative guy who ever lived," Cruz said. "Well gosh darnit, talk is cheap. One of the most important roles men and women of Iowa will play is to say, 'Don't talk, show me.'"

Allow me to offer a completely different grouping of the big names than you've seen elsewhere:

First Tier:

Scott Walker: He's serious and accomplished enough for the "Establishment," and indisputably conservative enough for the grassroots. The Left threw everything it had at this guy and he's still going strong. Despite the questions about his charisma, he's getting rave reviews for his passion in his appearance this weekend.

Marco Rubio: He's arguably the best communicator in the Republican party, and the Republican party desperately needs a good communicator as its nominee.

With rave reviews from Charles Krauthammer and James Pethokoukis, he could end up being the conservative pundits' favorite choice. Yes, there's still irritation about the "Gang of Eight" and anti-senator skepticism to overcome, but he's speaking about the broad, unifying national theme of American exceptionalism since 2010. Obviously, he offers a fantastic contrast with Hillary.

Rick Perry: The former governor of Texas is likely to be the only re-running candidate who improves upon his past performance. He still has a sterling economic record to point to, he's been going toe-to-toe with the Obama administration consistently, he's got enough charm to work on Jimmy Kimmel. This time, he won't be coming off back surgery, he won't start late, and we'll see just how much the hipster glasses help.

Bobby Jindal: Yes, he needs to speak slower. Yes, it's not clear that what works in Louisiana will work on the national stage. But he's a bit like Walker in that he's amassed an indisputably conservative record while getting things done in two terms. There's probably not another contender who knows more detail about more policies, and he's guided his state through some severe challenges -- post-Katrina rebuilding, a pair of serious hurricanes, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and the drilling moratorium. What's more, he's been fighting the administration on issues like school choice for years and he moves fast when an opportunity opens like the House GOP botching a late-term abortion bill.

Second Tier:

Jeb Bush: Sure, he'll have the money, and he'll have the name. But let's not even get into the immigration, Common Core, business ties, or family-dynasty issues yet. Republican primary voters, particularly conservative ones, think that the Obama presidency is the worst calamity to hit America in their lifetimes, and fear it is doing permanent damage to the national values, identity, and standing in the world. GOP primary voters are going to want a fighter, and do they think Jeb Bush has been leading the fight against Obama?

Mitt Romney: When people tell Mitt Romney, "Governor, I really wish you had won in 2012," they're not saying, "Governor, I think you would have been one of the greatest presidents in our lifetimes." They're saying, "Governor, Obama is really, really, really terrible, and electing you would have spared the country a lot of pain." He's a good man, but a lot of Republicans are ready to move on to new options. Plus, you know . . . Gruber.

Chris Christie: If Bush and Romney are both in, you have to wonder how many big donors stick by him. He did better in his Iowa appearance than some might have expected, and he's undoubtedly going to be a dominant figure in the debates. But he's positioned himself in opposition to the rest of the party way too often, and you can't win the GOP nomination from the Jon Huntsman slot, as the Republican nominee most acceptable to the Acela class that can't stand Republicans.

Rand Paul: He'll have his dad's network, and he's way more compelling. But there's a ceiling to Libertarian-minded candidates in the modern Republican party, and it's going to be tougher to sell quasi-isolationist non-interventionism as the world blows up even worse in Obama's final two years in office.

Ted Cruz: He will easily get elected President of Conservative America. The question is whether he can win votes among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents who don't already agree with him. The path to being king-maker may be easier to see than being king.

Mike Huckabee: He will easily get elected President of Socially Conservative America. The problem is that his less jovial analogue, Rick Santorum, tried the same approach in 2012 and you remember where that got him: leverage phenomenal popularity with social conservatives to a win in the Iowa caucuses, concede New Hampshire, don't do quite as well in South Carolina as you hoped, and then you're the dog chasing the big-spending frontrunner's limousine.

Rick Santorum: See above. He's got the same odds as 2012, except that Huckabee's competing for the same base of support.

Ben Carson: Buckets of charisma and a dedicated fan base, but some primary voters are wary about him having zero experience in government. Plus . . . you know.

Carly Fiorina: Whether she is open about it or not, she's running for vice president, not president. The thing is, the way she tears into Hillary and touts her own accomplishments, she may be a much more serious contender for that slot than most people think right now. For example -- did you know she's with CSIS?

We must understand our role in the world – which is to lead – and the nature of our allies and especially, our adversaries. Like Hillary Clinton, I too have travelled hundreds of thousands of miles around the globe. But unlike her, I have actually accomplished something. Mrs. Clinton, flying is an activity not an accomplishment. I have met Vladimir Putin and know that it will take more to halt his ambitions than a gimmicky red "Reset" button. Having done business in over 80 countries and having served as the Chairman of the External Advisory Board at the CIA, I know that China is a state-sponsor of cyberwarfare and has a strategy to steal our intellectual property. I know Bibi Netanyahu and know that when he warns us, over and over and over again, that Iran is a danger to this nation as well as to his own, that we must listen. And unlike Hillary Clinton I know what difference it makes that our Ambassador to Libya and 3 other brave Americans were killed in a deliberate terrorist attack on the anniversary of 9-11 and that the response of our nation must be more forceful that the arrest of a single individual a year later.

For someone who has never been elected to anything, she's got a pretty good résumé.

The President Attempts to Single-Handedly Rope Off ANWR

Hey, who needs Congress, right?

The Obama administration will propose setting aside more than 12 million acres in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as wilderness, the White House announced Sunday, halting any chance of oil exploration for now in the refuge's much-fought-over coastal plain and sparking a fierce battle with Republicans, including the new chair of the Senate Energy Committee…

The move marks the latest instance of Obama's aggressive use of executive authority to advance his top policy priorities. While only Congress can create a wilderness area, once the federal government identifies a place for that designation, it receives the highest level of protection until Congress acts or a future administration adopts a different approach.

The local reaction:

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, said the idea would be dead on arrival in the all-Republican Congress.

Nevertheless, she and the rest of the state's congressional delegation, along with Gov. Bill Walker, said that move -- and two other anticipated announcements involving offshore drilling in the Arctic and development in National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska -- amounted to "declaring war on Alaska's future."

Murkowski, in a Sunday telephone interview from her home in Washington, D.C., called the administration's moves a "trifecta" with a cumulative impact that could harm Alaska's economy.

That's the independent governor of Alaska, Bill Walker, a former Republican who ran with a Democratic lieutenant governor. More from the governor:

"Having just given to Alaskans the State of the State and State of the Budget addresses, it's clear that our fiscal challenges in both the short and long term would benefit significantly from increased oil production," Gov. Walker said. "This action by the federal government is a major setback toward reaching that goal. Therefore, I will consider accelerating the options available to us to increase oil exploration and production on state-owned lands. This further underscores the need for Alaska to become a participant in the infrastructure development for the benefit of all North Slope participants and the residents of Alaska."

Greece Is the Word, Is the Word, Is the Word . . .

Remember Greece? That economic basket-case full of beautiful islands, fantastic cuisine and almost no job creation whatsoever? (They recently celebrated that unemployment was down to . . . 25.9 percent. "More than 100,000 businesses have closed, and roughly a quarter of Greek households live close to the poverty line.")

You may recall a watching footage of angry Greeks throwing rocks at cops and setting cars on fire few years ago. The riots stopped and most of us went back to our standard policy on other countries' economic problems: ignoring them. Back then, Europe said they would keep the loans coming, as long as the Greek government accepted "austerity" policies -- that is, not borrowing and spending as much as the Greek people would like.

And now the deal is running out:

Greece—one of 19 countries that use the euro—needs billions of euros in coming months from other Euro-zone governments and the International Monetary Fund to avoid defaulting on public debts. Greek banks also need continual liquidity from the European Central Bank. Europe's current bailout plan for Greece expires on Feb. 28. A successor can't wait too long.

Greeks did not enjoy being told that their government couldn't continue to borrow and spend and borrow and spend. So Greek voters elected a party that's classified as far-left, but perhaps ought to be reclassified as anti-reality:

Syriza says it wants to replace the bailout plan, with its tough requirements on budget rigor and economic overhauls, with a new agreement that relaxes austerity, reverses free-market reforms, and relieves some of Greece's debt burden. Officials in Berlin and other key eurozone capitals say Greece must stick to the agreed path of rigor and reform if it wants further financing.

They want "debt forgiveness." In short, if you loaned money to Greece, you're in deep doo-doo. (Also, if you loaned money to Greece . . . what were you thinking?)

Right-of-center British Euro-skeptic Louise Mensch cheers it on: "For the first time, quite happy to see a Left-wing party win #greeceElections. With any luck, will pave the way for break-up of Euro."

You may wonder why someone on the right might think of this as good news, but reality always laughs last, particularly if you don't pay the money you owe. A big chunk of the Greek electorate -- and they're not alone -- think that there's always somebody else willing to loan them money at a reasonable rate. Advocates of that view have to meet realty some time; might as well move up the date of that appointment.

Also, the entire mess is leaving a lot of egg on the races of those central-planning-minded European Union bureaucrats, as our Andrew Stuttaford notes:

Fun fact No. 1: One of the two sons of Syriza's leader was given the middle name "Ernesto" in honor of the murderer better known as Ernesto "Che" Guevara.

Fun fact No. 2: The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn probably came in third with 6 percent or so.

I, for one, continue to be grateful that the single currency has proved to be such a bulwark against extremism.

ADDENDA: Laura K. Fillault, writing over at RedState: "If your hardest challenge was that somebody didn't like what you said, you need to try harder things and grow up."

Of course, I'll give Salman Rushdie a pass in that category.