Walker, Paul, Rubio Lead New Poll of GOP Iowa Caucus–Goers
A new Quinnipiac poll out this morning, surveying likely Iowa caucus–goers: Walker is at 21 percent of likely GOP caucus participants, compared to 25 percent in a February 25 poll . . . In the scramble for second place are U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 13 percent each, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas with 12 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee with 11 percent. Physician Ben Carson has 7 percent, with 5 percent for Jeb Bush. No other candidate is above 3 percent and 6 percent are undecided. Not many surprises in there, and obviously there's a lot of road ahead. Having said that, if they finished in that order on Caucus Night, it would be a nice burst of momentum for Walker, Paul, Rubio, and Cruz. For Huckabee, after winning Iowa in 2008, 11 percent would be a disappointment. Somehow previous caucus winner Rick Santorum is at 2 percent! Also, if Bobby Jindal doesn't move much beyond one percent, where's his next stronghold? South Carolina? If you're in that five percent or less category, should you put a lot of effort in Iowa in the next seven months or so? How Much Can a President Shape America's Culture? I get the feeling readers are split down the middle on this question. Dr. Carson may very well be right. (Mike Huckabee, announcing today, has also emphasized the need for an American cultural and/or spiritual renewal to overcome our current plethora of problems, as has once and perhaps future candidate Rick Santorum.) It's easy to imagine an America with a better, healthier, culture: Children raised by moms and dads in stable homes. Teenagers finishing high school and going on to trade school or college. Young adults staying away from crime and addictions of all kinds. Neighbors looking out for each other, instead of calling the cops on children of "free-range parents" they deem insufficiently irresponsible. Folks who are facing hard times embraced by a warm support network of family, friends, neighbors, and their broader community — Americans going through their lives reassured by the sense that if they stumble and fall, their churches, synagogues, and other faith groups and Burkean platoons will be there to catch them and help them back on their feet. The thing is, if you genuinely believe the biggest problems in America today are cultural, and not economic or political . . . should you really be running for president? Sure, the president of the United States is indisputably a pretty important cultural figure, and President Obama has been a ubiquitous, insufferably overexposed popular culture figure. But the job isn't primarily cultural, is it? (Perhaps Obama's preference to be celebrity-in-chief -- popping up on the late-night shows, inviting musicians to perform at the White House, holding a White House ceremony for every championship sports team, and little rituals like his March Madness picks -- represents some turning point in the role of the presidency in American life.) Still, there was a time when presidents were seen as boring and an arm's length, at least, from popular culture. The days of a president were occupied by life-and-death matters of state, national security, economics, foreign policy, and so on. Stephen Miller contended that Barack Obama is indeed the most powerful figure in American culture right now, and that if you don't like where our culture is going, it is impossible to change direction without a dramatically different figure in the Oval Office. I wouldn't dispute that presidencies influence culture . . . but are they decisive? In other words, is Obama the catalyst, or just a symptom? If you think Barack Obama came to office with a cultural agenda -- say, reducing the stigma around accepting government assistance, shifting to a less celebratory and more self-critical perspective of American history, a wholehearted embrace of "diversity" in all its forms (except for differing ideas), and an effort to get American Christians off their "high horse" . . . how much has Obama successfully influenced the culture around you? I suspect a lot of people are saying, "Well, he didn't influence me, but he influenced young people/the media/this demographic/that demographic" etc. Sure, Obama's really good at getting himself on television and on magazine covers. But has he really gotten Americans to change what they think, believe, embrace, or celebrate? For that matter, there are times Barack Obama pushes for cultural change that we would agree with, and those messages don't necessarily seem to have gotten traction. Think back to his message to schoolkids: At the end of the day, the circumstances of your life -- what you look like, where you come from, how much money you have, what you've got going on at home -- none of that is an excuse for neglecting your homework or having a bad attitude in school. That's no excuse for talking back to your teacher, or cutting class, or dropping out of school. There is no excuse for not trying. Where you are right now doesn't have to determine where you'll end up. No one's written your destiny for you, because here in America, you write your own destiny. You make your own future . . . I know that sometimes you get that sense from TV that you can be rich and successful without any hard work -- that your ticket to success is through rapping or basketball or being a reality TV star. Chances are you're not going to be any of those things. The truth is, being successful is hard. You won't love every subject that you study. You won't click with every teacher that you have. Not every homework assignment will seem completely relevant to your life right at this minute. And you won't necessarily succeed at everything the first time you try. That's okay. Some of the most successful people in the world are the ones who've had the most failures. Or his message to young black men: We know that too many young men in our community continue to make bad choices. And I have to say, growing up, I made quite a few myself. Sometimes I wrote off my own failings as just another example of the world trying to keep a black man down. I had a tendency sometimes to make excuses for me not doing the right thing. But one of the things that all of you have learned over the last four years is there's no longer any room for excuses. (Applause.) Nobody cares how tough your upbringing was. Nobody cares if you suffered some discrimination. And moreover, you have to remember that whatever you've gone through, it pales in comparison to the hardships previous generations endured -- and they overcame them. And if they overcame them, you can overcome them, too. Barack Obama has his days where he beats the drum for culturally conservative messages emphasizing individual responsibility. I think the reason those speeches with those messages don't "catch on" is because it's a harder message! A lot of people don't want to hear it, whether it's from Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Bennett, pre-scandal Bill Cosby, or anyone else. 'Social-Justice Warriors' and Our Brave New Era of Citizen Purges Dang it, Ace, stop writing brilliantly clarifying stuff that is way too long to excerpt. Okay, here's the tasting plate: While the Tea Party purges politicians, the social justice warriors purge everyday citizens. Note that we are supposed to have a political vote as to whether Politician X keeps his job. That is the basis of democracy. But we're not supposed to have a national plebescite over whether Justine Sacco should be fired and driven from society, or whether the family that owns Memories Pizza should be driven into bankruptcy. In case you wonder why I am as mean as ever to politicians, while being a crusader against political smear campaigns directed at citizens: Because it's fair and normal and expected to use political campaigning in political campaigns, but it is aberrant, Stalinist, and Salem-like to begin using political campaign tactics -- whipsawing opinion, planting smears, ginning up emotion, calling for people to be un-elected from their jobs -- as to non-political actors. ADDENDA: I'm scheduled to appear on the panel of Greta Van Susteren's On the Record tonight . . . of course, the political panel can always get bumped for breaking news. A delightful, accurate piece about what it's like to be a mom of boys, which also largely applies to us dads, too: When I'm introduced to another mother of only boys, there are a few seconds of expectation. As if maybe we are going to have a secret handshake. Or maybe we are going to say, "Hey, are there black handprint marks all over your walls? Me too!" Instead, we just nod our heads and exchange a little smile, knowing we are kindred spirits. Having boys leads to a set of personality traits, namely that you're not fussy and that you roll with the (actual) punches. If you have a bunch of boys, you've probably seen a femur up close. You can get blood out of anything. Mothers of boys are strangely laid back about property damage. In fact, property damage is to boy moms what frequent costume changes are to girl moms. A golf club through the drywall, a child through the drywall, and a basketball game ending triumphantly with glass showering down from the ceiling lights. That's just what being a boy mom is. It's knowing the number of the window repair company by heart, and not having to tell them your address when you call. | 
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