Getting Basic Facts Wrong Undermines the Argument You’re Trying to Make

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November 24, 2015
 
 
Morning Jolt
... with Jim Geraghty
 
 
 


Let's take it from the top. Here's what Donald Trump said at a rally in Birmingham, Alabama, on November 21:

Hey, I watched when the World Trade Center came tumbling down. And I watched in Jersey City, New Jersey, where thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down. Thousands of people were cheering.

Here's what Trump said the following day when asked about it by George Stephanopoulos:

TRUMP: It did happen. I saw it.

STEPHANOPOULOS: You saw that . . .

TRUMP: It was on television. I saw it.

STEPHANOPOULOS: — with your own eyes.

TRUMP: George, it did happen.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Police say it didn't happen.

TRUMP: There were people that were cheering on the other side of New Jersey, where you have large Arab populations. They were cheering as the World Trade Center came down. I know it might be not politically correct for you to talk about it, but there were people cheering as that building came down -- as those buildings came down. And that tells you something. It was well covered at the time, George. Now, I know they don't like to talk about it, but it was well covered at the time. There were people over in New Jersey that were watching it, a heavy Arab population, that were cheering as the buildings came down. Not good.

As discussed Sunday night, there is no television footage of "thousands and thousands" "cheering as the World Trade Center came down," and it certainly was not "well-covered at the time." There was footage of Palestinians and Arabs celebrating in East Jerusalem on September 11. (You would be amazed how many Trump fans sent me that video, without bothering to check where the footage was recorded.) It is likely that Trump is mixing up the East Jerusalem footage with rumors of celebrating Arabs in New Jersey.

Many Trump fans pointed to this video from 2009 of two Muslim radicals who were celebrating outside the New York City mosque. Abominable, but the Anderson Cooper report is eight years later, and essentially profiles two guys.

Other Trump fans pointed to the 15th paragraph of a Washington Post story from September 18, 2001, claiming it validated Trump's claim:

In Jersey City, within hours of two jetliners' plowing into the World Trade Center, law enforcement authorities detained and questioned a number of people who were allegedly seen celebrating the attacks and holding tailgate-style parties on rooftops while they watched the devastation on the other side of the river.

Except. . . police questioning "a number of people" after reports of celebrations is not the same as "thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down", an event that Trump contended was televised and was "well-covered at the time."

The idea that some people celebrated the devastation is quite possible, even probable, but not in the numbers or openness that Trump describes. This September 23, 2001 story in the Newark Star-Ledger discusses rumors of Palestinian-Americans celebrating in the streets of Paterson, New Jersey, reports that the local police could never corroborate upon arrival. Of course, this doesn't rule out any Arab-Americans in the area ever saying anything celebratory.

Abdallah, the Clifton electrician who grew up in Paterson, said there may have been a small handful of teenagers who shouted "revenge" the night of the bombing. That account is corroborated by WABC radio host Curtis Sliwa, one of those criticized by city officials for acknowledging accounts of celebrations on the air. But Sliwa says no neighborhood should be judged by the behavior of its rowdy teens on the street corner.

"They got put in their place by the elders - they were clobbered," Sliwa said. "The reaction of the community as a whole, that's really the story they should tell instead of this complete denial. There are a lot of American flags flying down there now."

Let's turn to a glaring piece of counter-evidence to Trump's Jersey City tale: In the 2000 Census, Jersey City had 6,755 Arab-Americans. That sounds like a lot, but the population of the city was 240,000. So Arab-Americans made up roughly 2 percent of the city's population. Jersey City is not Little Fallujah. In the 2000 Census the city was 34 percent white, 28 percent African-American, 16 percent Asian, 15 percent "other," 5 percent more than one race. The city is currently 10 percent Indian-American; many Indians are Hindu and Sikh and would not be cheering Islamist terror attacks.

Think back to September 11. Do you really think that "thousands and thousands" of people could celebrate the attacks -- from a spot where you could see the towers collapse -- and not generate a violent reaction from other people in the neighborhood? The 9/11 attacks killed 37 Jersey City residents. You think the residents of that city just ignored the "thousands and thousands" of people celebrating the attacks in their midst?

Do you think this footage was broadcast once, was seen by Donald Trump, and then authorities suppressed it out of political correctness or fear of a violent anti-Muslim backlash? And no one else in the New York City area remembers it? You think not a single person who had access to the footage would have resisted this theorized police-state censorship? If so, we're deep in the realm of conspiracy theories here. If Trump saw it on 9/11 or the day after, doesn't it seem odd that he never mentioned it during any of his media appearances in the intervening years? Doesn't it seem unusual that he didn't mention it during an interview at Ground Zero two days later?

Yesterday I did my first Twitter poll. It's unscientific; the respondent pool is limited to (1) people on Twitter, (2) people following me on Twitter, and (3) people who feel like responding. My question came from Trump's words: "Do you believe that on 9/11 in Jersey City 'thousands and thousands of people were cheering' the carnage?" The only options were "yes" or "no."

Still, more than 300 people responded, and the split was 81 percent "no" to 19 percent "yes." That's about what I expected, and strangely reassuring. But it tells us that something in the neighborhood of 10, 15, 20, 25 percent of conservative news junkies on Twitter will believe anything Donald Trump says, in the absence of any supporting evidence, and in the face of common sense, logic, and contrary evidence. I suspect this blind faith is stronger if the assertion is in line with their suspicions, such as the idea that large numbers of Arab-Americans and Muslim-Americans hate this country and support al-Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist groups.

Some will say, "Does it really matter if it was a dozen teenagers or 'thousands and thousands' as Trump says?" The answer is, "Hell yes, it does."

Donald Trump is presumably telling this mis-remembered story in support of a larger point, which is that there are radical Muslims on American soil -- some immigrants, some native-born and radicalized.

One poll in May of 600 self-identified Muslim-Americans found 51 percent agreed that agreed that "Muslims in America should have the choice of being governed according to shariah" and the same percentage "believe either that they should have the choice of American or shariah courts." The same survey also found 25 percent agreeing fully or in part that "violence against Americans here in the United States can be justified as part of the global jihad." There may be some quibbles with the poll sample -- for example, it's 55 percent men, 45 percent women -- but even if the numbers are half what the survey found, a portion of this community is in direct conflict with American liberty and rule of law.

It's in this context that Hillary Clinton's statement, "Muslims are peaceful and tolerant people and have nothing whatsoever to do with terrorism," is so maddening. The number of Muslims in the United States ranges from 2.6 million to 8 million, depending upon who you ask. If just one percent is extremist or supports Islamist terrorism, we're talking about 26,000 to 80,000 people -- not a group small enough to ignore. The Fort Hood shooter, one man, killed 13 and injured 30 people.

"Jim, why are you writing about Donald Trump again?"

Because this stuff matters, and we have an obligation to get our facts right. A lot of people won't want to think about any percentage of American Muslims supporting violence against Americans. They'll want to tune it out as hatred and xenophobia. If you get this stuff wildly wrong, as Trump just did, and then refuse to acknowledge any error, people dismiss you as a crazy lunatic. The people who insisted Trump was right kept sending me videos from the wrong place or the wrong time period.

Not long ago, a figure familiar in these parts posted pictures, contending that

"every Friday afternoon in several locations throughout New York City where there are mosques with a large number of Muslims that cannot fit into the mosque. They fill the surrounding streets, facing east for a couple of hours between about 2 & 4 p.m." That figure could not be stirred to do the minimum Googling to determine that the pictures of Muslims praying in the streets were not from weekly prayers, but from the Muslim Day Parade, an annual event.

We cannot be a party or a movement that gets its understanding of the world from chain-e-mails from Uncle Leo.

"Jim, why don't you write about the lies coming from the White House?" Somebody really asked me that yesterday. I mean, I have a rule named after me, decreeing that "all statements from Barack Obama come with an expiration date. All of them."

Meanwhile, Checking in with Ben Carson . . .

Oh, come on. Come on! I suppose we should give Ben Carson credit for realizing he made a mistake, and coming back and attempting to correct the mistake.

Trump initially did get back up from Carson, who told reporters gathered in Nevada that he did see celebrations of American Muslims in New Jersey after 9/11.

"I saw the film of it, yes," he said. Asked what kind of film, he said: "The news reels."

"You know there are going to be people who respond inappropriately to virtually everything," Carson said. "I think that was an inappropriate response. I don't know if on the basis of that you can say all Muslims are bad people. I really think that would be a stretch."

Carson's campaign walked that comment back later.

"Dr. Carson does not stand behind the statement attributed to him early today regarding events surrounding 9/11," said Carson communications director Doug Watts.

Arrgh, that blasted passive voice. See, it wasn't "a statement attributed to him." It was something he said. It's on video. You can watch it.

"He does not believe Muslim Americans in New Jersey were celebrating the fall of the Twin Towers, rather he recalls the ample news footage of crowds in the Middle East celebrating the tragic events of 9/11," he said. "He found their jubilation inappropriate and disturbing, but did not and does not consider it representative of the Muslim American population or the Muslim population at-large."

Eh, you know what, everybody makes mistakes.

Feeling the Love for Heavy Lifting

Thank you to Jazz Shaw of Hot Air for his kind review of Heavy Lifting!

I'll just begin by saying that this book is a fantastic gift which comes along at a time when we've been observing the decay of many societal norms which were once viewed as the glue that held our culture together. It might be a gift for yourself or a friend, but particularly if you're a person of a certain age, it's probably one of the best presents ever to offer to a young man anywhere from his middle teens to his late twenties. For that matter, it's a pretty good gift for young ladies as well, since men can be tricky animals to figure out sometimes . . .

All through this book the sense of humor of both these men comes through in a subtle way, but it's mixed in nicely with a genuine sense that they're really trying to help. Being a man in the classical sense is becoming an antiquated notion and society is not better for it. Well written and easy to digest either all in one go or as an occasional evening read before bed, this book is approachable for all ages and, in my opinion, enjoyable for all. As I mentioned at the start, give this as a gift for yourself or for any younger person struggling to make sense of the world.

Underneath the humor and homespun stories there's an awful lot of truth. You'll feel better when you finish reading it.

The comments section underneath was quite fascinating. I enjoyed this critique . . .

The author of this book leaves out God and Godly principles, expecting young men to act manly for the sake of acting manly. If that's all you want then the Hells Angels and other group valuing brute strength and combat are your role models.

Yes, of course, sir. You're right, a book that asks "What would Ward Cleaver do?" is pretty much a direct order for all men to become Hell's Angels and join Fight Club. And then, further down the page, this review:

Men have to be exactly what the authors think they should be, regardless of the massive differences in "manhood" as it is and has been perceived by countless religions, cultures and societies throughout the ages. You can bet that the authors are both practicing Christians, and "manhood" as they see it, will subscribe and comply precisely to Timothy, Luke, the Book of Acts and John.

Heavy Lifting: Simultaneously not Christian enough and too Christian at the same time!

Anyway, as Jazz notes, the only way to understand why Cam and his wife spent their first family Christmas at Hooters is to buy the book.

ADDENDA: American Encore unveils a new ad in Iowa: "Leading from Behind"; our Eliana has more.

The ad charges, "When Ted Cruz had the chance to fight Barack Obama's dangerously weak anti-terrorism policies, he didn't."

(head scratching)

Does that . . . sound like Ted Cruz to you? The guy who takes it too easy on Obama? The guy who's always working for a bipartisan consensus?

You're sure we're talking about Ted Cruz? Did you maybe mean Tom Cruise? Penelope Cruz? 

 
 
 
 
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