Welcome to the Real Campaign, Different from All the Preceding Hype
Hey, remember when Fox News Channel host Jeanine Pirro said, "The National Review needs to get in line with the rest of the Republicans. How dare they trash the frontrunner Donald Trump!" Good times, good times. Jeremy Carl offers a stunning observation: Despite its best attempts to fail, the biggest winner of the Iowa Caucus last night was the GOP itself, which generated an unprecedented level of energy and engagement among voters in a critical swing state. That energy was generated thanks to a group of leading candidates who actually appealed to the GOP's grassroots voter base. Turnout was more than 186,000, more than 50 percent higher than any Iowa GOP Caucus in history, and 46 percent of those were first-time caucus attendees. And this turnout boom can't be all chalked up the "Trump Effect". Even if every Trump voter had stayed home, turnout for the remaining candidates would have still been more than 15 percent higher than it had been at any previous caucus. That's remarkable. My thoughts from last night still stand; I'm going to expand on the never-had-a-chance candidates clogging up the GOP arteries like globs of human cholesterol later today. 1. Trump foes shouldn't get too excited. This is one contest, for a handful of delegates. Trump will have the resources to continue for as long as he likes. 2. Having said that, Trump dominated the discussion of this campaign for most of the past year and led the last 13 polls in this state. Chuck Laudner, who ran Santorum's 2012 get-out-the-vote operation, was running Trump's operation this year and you would think he would know how to maximize the turnout for his boss. But observers wondered about Trump's ground game, and the billionaire finished with about 24 percent. Polls had him in the high 20s, low 30s. Does Trump have a good get-out-the-vote operation anywhere? Is he a paper tiger? 3. The Cruz campaign earned applause tonight. The turnout was huge, and their man won, and won solidly, in the face of some withering attacks, with almost everything on the line. Take that bow, senator; you just won more votes in the Iowa caucus than any other Republican in history. 4. The coverage of Trump needs to change, national media. The story is no longer the novelty of the Trump phenomenon and shock and surprise that he's attracting such big crowds and leading the polls. He's an aspiring commander-in-chief, and he needs to be pressed for details on his health-care plan, his infrastructure-spending plans, how he plans to balance the budget, and so on. This race is not a reality show. Also, the talk of Trump taking over the GOP has been proven wildly overwrought and premature. About 76 percent of Iowa Republicans preferred somebody else. 5. Mike Huckabee's out. It's about time, and Rick Santorum should think about that, too. The past two GOP caucus winners won about 3 percent combined in this year's contest. 6. To hell with ethanol. 7. Marco Rubio can feel good about last night. Only one poll had him above 20 percent in Iowa the past year. He's at 23 percent, about a percentage point behind Trump. It's a three-man race, and he's in position to occupy the "Establishment" lane. Scoff if you like, but there are a lot of resources available in that lane. 8. Hey, Trump fans, still sure skipping the Iowa debate was such a great move? It's extremely dangerous to be surrounded by people who believe every move you make is golden. 9. Over on the Democratic side, a near-loss is good enough for Sanders. Hillary Clinton had about eight years to prepare for this night. He should roar to victory in New Hampshire and really have Democrats sweating about a 2008 flashback for her. 10. Ben Carson is a really nice and accomplished man who seems like a bad fit for the presidency. If he couldn't catch fire in Iowa . . . where's the next state that looks good for him? South Carolina? Nevada? No offense to Rand Paul, who's a bright guy who speaks for an important perspective within the party, but it may be time to contemplate focusing on that Senate race. He won about 4.5 percent last night; he's at 3 percent in New Hampshire, and 2 percent in South Carolina. John Kasich, Chris Christie, and Carly Fiorina can argue, with varying degrees of plausibility, that they were always more focused on New Hampshire than Iowa. Right now Kasich is at 11.5 percent, Christie's at 6.5 percent, and Fiorina's at 3.5 percent. If they're sputtering in the low single digits a week from tonight, it's probably time to wave and exit the stage. Hillary Collapse 2.0 Is Now Underway! On the other side of the aisle, the Democrats are speaking more openly about the fact that they're losing their minds: In her speech Monday at Drake University, Clinton -- as she has done at appearances all over the state -- rattled off a laundry list of programs she'd enact as president. But Sanders scored big with younger voters -- 70 percent of those under-30 backed him -- on the strength of his simple message of change. One Sanders precinct captain summed up the difference while rallying the troops: "Vote your heart, not your mind." Don't let any Hillary fan tell you this wasn't a collapse. She was ahead by twelve in mid-January. She came out last night for a not-quite-victory, not-quite concession speech decked out in blood red and glaring angrily and hard in her tone. If I were Bernie Sanders, I might call Ken Starr to see what's coming my way. 
Hey, Remember Alison Lundergan Grimes, the Democrats' Great Hope in Kentucky? Meanwhile, in Kentucky . . . A federal grand jury in Lexington has subpoenaed records of Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes and her father Jerry Lundergan in an investigation that relates to the finances of her political campaigns in 2014 and 2015. David Guarnieri, an attorney for Grimes, confirmed Monday that she received the subpoena last week. He said Grimes is not a target of the inquiry and said she is fully responding to the subpoena. "Secretary Grimes has received a request from the U.S. Attorney's Office to provide certain documents from her Senate and Secretary of State campaigns," Guarnieri and his associate Jaron Blandford said in a statement. "Secretary Grimes intends to cooperate fully with respect to this request." Guarnieri and Blandford said, "This information is being requested of her because she was the candidate in those campaigns." Lundergan, reached on his cell phone Monday, said, "I have no comment about any of that stuff, OK." Guthrie True, his attorney, said Monday that a federal grand jury subpoenaed records of Lundergan and two of his companies. "There's nothing that would indicate that either he or his companies are in any way the subjects of any inquiry. So we're intending to provide documents in response to the subpoenas in a timely fashion," True said. "But no one has shared with me the specifics of whatever inquiry is being conducted or who may be the subject of that inquiry." Lundergan was deeply involved in his daughter's 2014 campaign against U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell and used his companies to provide more than $60,000 worth of services to the campaign. After Lundergan was complimented for his daughter's campaign roll-out at a historic home owned by one of his businesses, he said, "That's what daddies do for their little girls." ADDENDA: I hope to see you in New Hampshire Saturday night! We've had a tremendous response to our upcoming (quadrennial!) National Review GOP debate-watch this coming Saturday night (February 6) at the Radisson Hotel in beautiful Manchester, N.H. Originally we planned for 400 people, but given the demand expanded to 500. Right this moment, over 470 people are confirmed attending. Which means: We have a handful of seats remaining. If you have yet to reserve a seat, do so now. Right here. The event is free, and we're even providing some grub. Of course, as conservatives, you know that there is no such thing as a free lunch, or even free food. So we'll be asking you and your conscience to throw a sawbuck or two in the tip jar. You don't have to, but we're confident that as a solid citizen who detests moochers, you will. Anyway . . . here's what's in store. The doors open at 5:00 p.m. At 6:00 p.m., we'll commence with our first panel session, featuring Rich Lowry, Jim Geraghty, Charlie Cooke, and Tim Alberta, who will pontificate about the state of America's presidential primaries. Up next, the stage will be occupied by the "GLoP Culture" trio of Jonah Goldberg, Rob Long, and John Podhoretz, who will share their Ricochet-powered wisdom and analysis. Around 8:30 p.m., on the big, fat screen we've rented, we'll watch the Republican debate (being held not too far away at Saint Anselm College). When that's over, at 10:30 p.m., the GLoP boys will reassemble to chortle, guffaw, and critique what we will have all just seen (or endured).  | 
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