My Latest Exercise in Telling People Something They Don't Want to Believe
Right now all indications are that Hillary Clinton will crush Donald Trump in a general election, and there will be no big surge for Trump in longtime blue states like New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In New York, the most recent Siena poll has Clinton beating Trump, 57 percent to 34 percent. This is not a reflection of phenomenal popularity on her part; the survey finds 48 percent of registered voters in the Empire State feel favorable to her, and the same percentage feels unfavorable. But, the protestations of Root and other boosters aside, voters in Trump's home state like him even less than Clinton; only 29 percent have a favorable view of him, compared with 59 percent who see him unfavorably. And what limited support Trump does get in New York doesn't come from blue-collar voters, either: He does best among those who make more than $100,000 per year, and a full 64 percent of voters in that group still have an unfavorable opinion of him. The outlook is equally grim across the river in New Jersey, where Trump's Atlantic City casinos once made him a key employer. Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind survey, conducted last week, shows Clinton leading Trump 52 percent to 36 percent among registered voters in the Garden State. When asked to offer one word that describes Trump, New Jerseyans most commonly answered "arrogant," "idiot," "good," "bad," "obnoxious," and "ass." In Michigan, the latest Marist poll has Clinton ahead of Trump, 52 percent to 36 percent. The exit poll from that state's GOP primary found that 48 percent of its participants would be "dissatisfied" if Trump won the nomination, and 50 percent did not think Trump was "honest and trustworthy." Trump is at least within single digits of Clinton in the two biggest Rust-Belt states. The Republican firm Harper Polling finds Clinton ahead of Trump, 45 percent to 40 percent, in Pennsylvania, while in Ohio, PPP has Clinton ahead by the same margin and CNN has her ahead 50 percent to 43 percent. When you say this to a Trump fan, they insist, "those polls mean nothing right now." Even if the head-to-head numbers are not necessarily predictive, the favorable-unfavorable numbers are pretty relevant. Right now Donald Trump is detested by the general electorate -- the most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, an astonishing 56 percent of respondents had a strongly unfavorable opinion of Trump -- and he would begin the general election as the most unpopular figure ever nominated to be the presidential candidate for a major party. Or they point to the fact that 4.3 million people have already voted for him as a sign that he's popular, blissfully ignoring the fact that the general election will feature around 130 million voters. Or they point out that Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan, 58 percent to 33 percent, in 1980. Of course, 55 to 67 percent of Americans didn't think unfavorably of Ronald Reagan. Take a look. Trump has always been seen unfavorably by at least 50 percent in every poll conducted going back to May 2015. 
No, Don't Burn Down Anything If your rallying cry is, "BURN IT DOWN!" we're not on the same side. That call is popping up more frequently lately. Back in October, during the fight over who should replace John Boehner as speaker of the House, Erick Erickson wrote that, "given Washington these days, I think the default should be to burn it to the ground (metaphorically speaking)." Joe Miller, onetime GOP Senate candidate in Alaska, wrote, "I will endorse the first 2016 candidate to make 'burn it down' their campaign theme." He was in luck. Mike Huckabee's short-lived campaign ran an ad declaring, "Let's burn down the Washington political machine!" In New Hampshire Chris Christie said, "I'm angry, too. I want to burn Washington down because it's so ineffective." That strikes me as even less focused than a promise to "fundamentally transform the United States of America." Our legitimate gripe with Obama's closing rallying cry in 2008 was that the United States of America didn't need to be fundamentally transformed. The country was pretty much okay; it was the government policies that needed to be changed. America is more than a tax code, series of regulations, and Supreme Court rulings. Trump has said, to applause, that this country is a "hellhole," "our military is a disaster, our health care is a horror show," "the country is going to hell," and so on. A reality check: This morning, about 50 million American children took the bus to a public school, and for the vast majority of them, nothing went wrong. About 121 million Americans went off to a full-time job, worked hard, and thought about what they would do with their paycheck at the end of the week. For those out of work, there were 5.6 million job openings at the end of 2015, at least 57,000 of them offering on-the-job training. About 60 million married men and women across the country went to bed last night thinking about their spouse -- most of them still in love, and not worried about how he left the toilet seat up. Last year, American families adopted about 135,000 children who needed homes. And in the last year of complete statistics, we gave more to charity than ever before. The average American is not sitting in his basement, typing on his keyboard with Cheeto dust on his fingers, watching anime porn and leaving profane, hateful comments on a YouTube video. This is a country full of kind, loving, hardworking, decent people who look out for their neighbors. They haven't gone away. They didn't get into a fistfight in Chicago Friday night. They were too busy doing their jobs, raising their families, and helping their communities to get caught up in the hateful sideshow engulfing American politics. Burn it all down? Are you crazy? Donald Trump and Ben Carson Truly Deserve Each Other Caleb Howe notices a pretty stunning admission from Ben Carson. DR. BEN CARSON: I do believe, and certainly in my discussions with Donald Trump, he does love America and he does want to be successful. And, he will surround himself with very good people. STEVE MALZBERG: And will one of them be Dr. Ben Carson? Carson: I will be doing things as well, yeah. Malzberg: In the administration. Carson: Certainly in an advisory capacity. Malzberg: That's been determined? You've, when you sat down with him that was discussed? Carson: Yes. So Trump and Carson have discussed the doctor serving in a Trump administration. By itself, that's pretty normal. But moments later, Carson had this exchange: Carson: Is there another scenario that I would have preferred? Yes. But that scenario isn't available. Malzberg: With one of the other candidates you mean? Carson: Yeah. So Carson wanted to go with "another scenario" with one of the other candidates, but it "wasn't available," so he endorsed the rival who compared him to a child molester. Anyway, Carson's endorsement seems to be getting more passive-aggressive with time: "The way I look at it, even if Donald Trump turns out not to be such a great president -- which I don't think is the case, I think he's going to surround himself with really good people -- but even if he didn't, we're only looking at four years," Carson said. "[That's] opposed to multiple generations and perhaps the loss of the American dream forever." I can think of no endorser and endorsee who deserve each other more than Ben Carson and Donald Trump. ADDENDA: For those of you in the Hilton Head, South Carolina area, I'll be speaking to the First Monday Club (not actually meeting on the First Monday) at Aunt Chiladas, 69 Pope Avenue, at noon on Wednesday, March 23rd. Reservations are not required and lunch, including beverage, tax, and tip is $10.  | 
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