Our Eliana Johnson and Alexis Levinson give it to us straight: Going into Tuesday's primaries, the last elections before the race enters its final and determinative phase when Ohio and Florida award 165 delegates on a winner-take-all basis next week, Trump's enemies had hoped to stall his momentum. In particular, they hoped that Ted Cruz, whose campaign is based in large part on his appeal to Evangelical voters, could throw up a roadblock in Mississippi, and that John Kasich could arrest Trump's momentum in Michigan. Both Cruz and Kasich failed. And as they did, the slow death of the Republican party ground onward. Hope of preserving the conservative movement that has sustained it for nearly four decades diminished further. This morning, Ben Domenech declares, "Republicans, you can have a Ted Cruz party or a Donald Trump party. Choose." But they have chosen. More than 12.4 million people have voted in the Republican presidential primary so far. Donald Trump has won 4.3 million votes, or nearly 35 percent. Cruz won 3.6 million votes, or 29 percent. The arguments have been made, and the largest chunk of the Republican party has chosen to send the country to Trump University. Sure, in the eyes of most conservatives who actually care about policy, Ted Cruz would be a much better nominee and president than Donald Trump. But a time when enormous numbers of Evangelical Christians and Catholics are convincing themselves to see what they want to see in Trump, other factions of the Republican party -- businessmen, veterans, federalists, judicial strict-constructionists, gun owners, school choice advocates -- are likely to see what they want to see, too. It's not just primary voters. As Jonah points out, some one-time conservative philosophical and policy leaders have come to embrace ideas that they rejected just a short while ago, reflecting either a sudden and complete reversal in thinking or Chris Christie levels of political opportunism. Consider Larry Kudlow and Stephen Moore. In August, the two legendarily libertarian-minded economists attacked Trump, focusing on what they called Trump's "Fortress America platform." His trade policies threaten the global economic order, they warned. "We can't help wondering whether the recent panic in world financial markets is in part a result of the Trump assault on free trade," they mused. As for Trump's immigration policies, they could "hardly be further from the Reagan vision of America as a 'shining city on a hill.'" Months later, as Trump rose in the polls, Kudlow and Moore joined the ranks of Trump's biggest boosters -- and not because Trump changed his views. On the contrary, Kudlow has moved markedly in Trump's direction. He now argues that the borders must be sealed and all visas canceled. He also thinks we have to crack down on China. Keep voting for the candidate you think is best, but recognize that the base of the party has been told that Trump lies all the time, and they've chosen to believe the lies. Building a wall will be easy. Trade tariffs will restore prosperity. He would never lie to me. I'm going to pick the right card in three-card monte. 
Spare Me One Last Media-Generated 'Kasich Surging' Narrative The Cleveland Plain Dealer asks, "Has John Kasich eclipsed Marco Rubio in the establishment lane?" Dave Weigel reports from Kasich's rally: He took the stage at his election night party before half the Michigan votes were in. He declared a second place finish while that was very much in doubt. And then, almost as an afterthought, Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio) shoved Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) out of the presidential race. Metaphorically speaking. "In the contest going forward, the three of us that remain -- we are in a virtual dead heat," said Kasich, surrounded by his family and by supporters in a hotel just blocks from Ohio's state capitol. "The home court advantage is coming north, and next week, we're going to win the state of Ohio." This is amazing round of good press for a guy who hasn't won a state anywhere, who's got 54 delegates to Rubio's 154, and who has 1 million votes to Rubio's 2.4 million votes. Kasich has won six counties so far; in a greatly disappointing race, Rubio has won dozens, including some of the most densely populated. Remember the "Midwestern Beachhead" that was going to give Kasich this awesome bargaining position at the Cleveland convention? Kasich finished third in Michigan last night, 8,000 votes behind Cruz. He won less than 6 percent in Minnesota. He was eighth, with less than 2 percent, in Iowa. He was fourth in Kansas, with 11 percent. Kasich is a rare example of a regional candidate who can't win in, you know, his region. As bad as last night was for Marco Rubio -- and it was bad -- there's no logic to the idea that the guy who's running a disappointing third should drop out so people can unite behind the distant fourth. You Know Who's Won Nine States and 3.3 Million Votes? Bernie Sanders. You know who does have a "Midwestern Beachhead"? Bernie Sanders. Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post writes what the Hillary campaign didn't want to read -- that the Democratic primary isn't over, and she can't pivot to her general election pitch yet. Hillary Clinton took more delegates out of the primaries in Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday night. But Bernie Sanders, by winning in Michigan, scored a massively important symbolic victory that will likely re-energize his campaign and extend the Democratic presidential race for weeks if not months. "What tonight means is that the Bernie Sanders campaign . . . is strong in every part of the country," Sanders said in brief remarks in Florida Tuesday night. "We believe our strongest areas are yet to happen." Given Sanders's remarkable comeback in Michigan -- most polling had him losing by 20-plus points -- there are a handful of large, industrial states, many clumped in the Midwest, where Sanders now has to be considered viable assuming he continues to ride the trade message that catapulted him to the top in the Wolverine State. Yes, the Republican Party is falling apart. But the Democratic Party isn't that far behind it; as I wrote in a piece yesterday about the splintering factions within the parties, the two wings of the Democratic party look at each other and ask what they have in common anymore: Hillary Clinton (4.2 million votes, 26 percent): Hillary's candidacy is the closest option to the status quo of the Obama presidency. But even Bill Clinton acknowledges the current discontent, declaring: "Millions and millions and millions and millions of people look at that pretty picture of America [Obama] painted, and they cannot find themselves in it to save their lives." As Andrew O'Hehir wrote recently at Salon, the Hillary Clinton vision is one in which the current problems can be rectified by a "competent and compassionate administrator." (Ambassador Chris Stephens could not be reached for his assessment of Clinton's competence and compassion.) In this branch of the party, denunciation of corporate greed and Wall Street is mostly pro forma; many Democrats work on Wall Street and for corporations, too. You can find the best Treasury secretaries there. ("Hillary Clinton won't rule out appointing a Wall Street veteran to the top economic post in the White House," CNN reported last month.) This faction of the party focuses most intently on boutique issues such as climate change, gun control, alternative-energy subsidies, and it most enthusiastically touts amnesty, open borders, and mass legalization. Bernie Sanders (2.7 million votes, 17 percent): In Sanders's vision, Hillary Clinton and her supporters are part of the problem, not part of the solution. The political and economic systems of the United States in 2016 don't need better administration or tinkering; they need a radical, far-reaching overhaul. An abused underclass of millions of people need government to step in and start providing what capitalism has utterly failed to provide: free college tuition, Medicare for everyone, subsidized child care for working parents, expanded Social Security benefits. Pay for it all with a top tax rate of 52 percent, hike estate and inheritance taxes up to 55 percent, and apply the Social Security payroll tax on all income above $250,000. Sanders supporters describe Hillary Clinton and her supporters with terms such as "oligarchy" and contend that the relatively pro-business, not-quite-so-radical approach has left Democrats with frustratingly small minorities in Congress and a wipeout in governors' mansions and state legislatures. ADDENDA: Morning Jolt reader Mike writes in, "When I do my NCAA basketball tournament brackets next week, I'm going to write in Trump University."  | 
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