Has there ever been a year where April Fool's Day felt more redundant? In just the past month or so, we've seen people taking selfies with terrorists, the president dancing the tango the day the terrorists attacked the headquarters city of NATO, discussions of manhood at a Republican debate, a campaign manager charged with battery, and a Russian mogul claiming he spent a billion dollars on his daughter's wedding, booking Jennifer Lopez, Enrique Iglesias, and Sting. In light of all this, doesn't a prank like the "Taco Liberty Bell" look pretty mundane? Why the South Carolina Delegate Intrigue Is Less Than It Appears to Be At first glance, this looks like a good, intriguing controversy . . . The Palmetto State was one of several that required candidates to pledge their loyalty to the party's eventual nominee in order to secure a slot on the primary ballot. Though Trump won all of the state's delegates in the Feb. 20 primary, anti-Trump forces are plotting to contest their binding to Trump because of his threat on the pledge Tuesday. The loyalty pledge is nothing new in South Carolina, where it has been required for decades, but took on new focus in light of Trump's public musings about a third-party run or withdrawing his support from the eventual nominee if he is stopped at a contested convention. When asked about if he still would pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee during a town hall Tuesday with CNN's Anderson Cooper, Trump said "No. I don't anymore," adding that he has been "treated very unfairly." For what it's worth, South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Matt Moore declared on Twitter, "Regarding delegate questions today: to be clear, no one is seeking to unbind ANY of South Carolina's national delegates." . . . but ultimately, this is probably going to be moot. Let's say Trump goes into Cleveland with 1,237 ballots or more. Under that scenario, he's obviously going to honor his pledge to "support the nominees and platform of the Republican Party in the November 8, 2016 general election" -- he'll have a solid claim to be the nominee because he won the required number of delegates, and he'll be supporting himself. Could the South Carolina delegates claim, "Well, back in March, you told CNN you wouldn't support the nominee, so based on that off-the-cuff comment, we're free to break the one thing we're explicitly obligated to do under the party rules"? Sure, they could try, but if you thought Trump supporters were outraged now, imagine how they'll be when they have a legitimate claim that the nomination has been taken from them. Next, let's assume the more likely scenario, that Trump goes into Cleveland with the most delegates but less than 1,237. Then, none of this matters, because delegates from South Carolina are only bound on the first ballot: 
After that first ballot, the delegates are free to support whomever they like -- Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, or some other option. Republicans Prepare to Nominate a Man Radioactive Among Most Women The Pew Research Center finds Republican women are turning against Trump. The share of GOP voters saying Trump would be a good or great president has declined seven points since January (from 56%), while the share saying he would be poor or terrible has increased eight points. Though this change is seen across most Republican groups, the rising share saying he would be poor or terrible is somewhat more pronounced among Republican women than men. Today, 38% of GOP women say he would be a poor or terrible president, up from 24% in January (by comparison, just 24% of Republican men say Trump would be poor or terrible, little changed from 20% in January). The fact that Republican women are increasingly repulsed is undoubtedly driving overall numbers like these: The percentages of women who had an unfavorable or negative impression of Trump in recent public polls are staggering: 67 percent (Fox News), 67 percent (Quinnipiac University), 70 percent (NBC News/Wall Street Journal), 73 percent (CNN/ORC) and 74 percent (ABC News/Washington Post). This morning Gallup finds 70 percent of women feel unfavorably towards Trump. Their conclusion: There was a sizable gender gap in Americans' views of Trump as early as last July. But even as his overall image has worsened among both genders in recent months, the size of the gender gap has been fairly steady. Trump's "woman problem" has come into sharper focus this week with his latest high-visibility comments about women and abortion. It is too early to measure what effect those comments may be having on his image. But even before these remarks, fewer than one in four women viewed him favorably, suggesting he may already be down to a core of rock-hard supporters whose opinions aren't likely to change. When you mention this on Twitter, you inevitably get some Trump fan insisting that all of the polls have to be lies, because they love Trump and everyone, and in particular every woman they know, loves Trump. Forget what the data says, my anecdote feels so right! Meanwhile, Whit Ayres, the pollster for Marco Rubio's campaign, dispels the popular conception among the GOP that Mitt Romney was just an energized white working-class electorate away from winning the presidency: But what about "the missing white voters" whom Trump supposedly would energize and bring into the electorate? Weren't there more than 4 million whites who voted in 2008 but not 2012? Yes, and Mitt Romney lost by 5 million votes. Had every one of the missing white voters turned out and voted for Romney, he still would have lost. Those whites who did not vote were concentrated in the deepest red states -- Arkansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia -- where President Obama never had a chance and lack of competition drove down turnout. No evidence exists of a dramatic falloff among white voters in the swing states that decide the outcome of a presidential contest. ADDENDA: I'm scheduled to appear on CNN in the 11 a.m. hour, discussing the Republican race and the delegate hunt. On the pop-culture podcast this week, Mickey and I discuss awful restaurant experiences, the joys of Amazon's detective television series, Bosch; the strange food offerings from chains such as Burger King's new blood-red burger and the Red Robin Ramen Noodle bun, an upcoming documentary on Tony Robbins entitled I Am Not Your Guru, and our instinctive wariness of anything advertised on late-night television. This week's podcast is brought to you by Devlin MacGregor Pharmaceuticals -- the proud makers of Provasic, the new artery-clearing drug that completely passed all of its FDA testing and in no way causes liver damage! Don't let any fugitive doctors barging into Chicago medical conferences steer you wrong. It's time to stop running, and get yourself to your doctor for a prescription for Provasic! It won't cost you an arm and a leg -- just one arm!  | 
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