| Don't Let the Orlando Discussion Shift Away from the Government's Failure From where I sit, this is the most important aspect, and the one most likely to be under-discussed, in the aftermath of the Orlando terrorist attack: The glaring, red-siren revelation in recent terror attacks on American soil is that the perpetrators were so often briefly investigated by American authorities on suspicion of terrorist ties, and then cleared. The FBI interviewed Omar Mateen three times in 2013 and 2014, and he had been on a terrorism watch list during that time. He was subsequently removed. The FBI interviewed Boston Marathon bomber Tamerlan Tsarnaev in 2011. San Bernardino shooter Tashfeen Malik passed the Department of Homeland Security's counterterrorism screening during her visa-application process. Among the aspiring jihadists who opened fire at a Garland, Texas, "Draw Muhammad" contest was Elton Simpson, whom the FBI investigated for allegedly planning to join a terror group in 2010; he was sentenced to three years of probation for lying to investigators. The FBI never talked to the Chattanooga shooter, but his father had been on a terrorism watch list for suspicious overseas donations; he was subsequently cleared and removed from the list. Is it that the caseload simply doesn't allow the time for a thorough investigation or periodic reexamination of past persons of interest? In October, FBI Director James Comey said the Bureau had an estimated 900 active investigations pending against suspected Islamic State-inspired operatives and other home-grown violent extremists across the country. Thankfully, while some reporters question whether the real lesson is about tortured denial of sexual preference or whether to ban a gun the terrorist didn't use, a few voices are asking why terrorist attacks keep occurring on American soil, launched by figures who were already on the radar of federal agents: David Gomez, a former senior FBI counterterrorism official in Seattle, wrote in an online posting titled "How Did The FBI Miss Omar Mateen?" that "perhaps it is time to revisit" the basic legal standard that the FBI requires probable cause of a likely crime to open full-scale investigations. And James McJunkin, who once headed the FBI's counterterrorism division, said that if agents didn't dig deep enough in Orlando, it was probably because they were hampered by FBI guidelines. He said in preliminary investigations, for instance, there is a cap on the number of hours agents can conduct surveillance. "Those are rules or guidelines that were written by lawyers who don't have the responsibility or accountability for doing thorough investigations,'' McJunkin said. The agents probing Mateen, he added, "ran out of leads based upon the tools that they applied. But if they had more tools, would they have found more leads?'' Experts who study terrorism said that the bureau might require more agents and analysts to fight a metastasizing terror threat in which potential recruits are flooded with information online. FBI officials have said they have nearly 1,000 open investigations involving the Islamic State in all 50 states. Step back for a second: if you have "nearly 1,000 open investigations involving the Islamic State in all 50 states" then it means ISIS isn't "contained," as President Obama asserted in November. His comment apparently referred to only the portion of the group in Iraq and Syria, but if ISIS is growing and becoming more capable of launching deadly attacks more frequently in the Western cities, that almost makes the fight in the Middle East moot. The administration's message on ISIS has been consistent: We're containing them. We're making progress. They're not an existential threat. Don't worry. We've got this. It's hard to buy the idea that this is merely a funding or manpower issue; as I noted yesterday, the federal government has enormous resources devoted to counterterrorism: "A 2011 Washington Post report calculated that "some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States" and "51 federal organizations and military commands, operating in 15 U.S. cities, track the flow of money to and from terrorist networks." The vast majority of the people working in that giant security apparatus are dedicated, hardworking, intelligent and thorough. But something in their investigative process is generating false negatives: individuals who are indeed a threat are being scrutinized and assessed as non-threats, and Americans are dying as a consequence. Where Did This Guy Get All His Money? One more oddity: Orlando gunman Omar Mateen's two trips to Saudi Arabia, one of which was a pricey package that included four-star accommodations and fancy meals, were highly unusual and may have been cover for terror training, according to experts. The FBI is piecing together Mateen's radical Islam roots, and the trips to Saudi Arabia could be a sign of his growing religious devotion. His stated reason for both the 2011 and 2012 trips was umrah, a Muslim pilgrimage to the Kingdom that is not as significant as the hajj, a trip all Muslims must make to Mecca at least once in their lives. Either or both of the trips could also have included a side trip. "It's very possible for someone to take a trip to a country like Saudi Arabia and declare it as their destination when it is in actuality just a pit stop to a different country like Yemen," said Ryan Mauro, national security analyst for Clarion Project, a New York-based research institute that tracks global terrorism. "Based on his blatant extremism and ties to a convicted Orlando imam known for facilitating international jihadists traveling, the strong likelihood is that these trips were not benign." How many security guards do you know who go on ten-day and eight-day overseas vacations? Mateen's first trip to Saudi Arabia was for 10 days, and the jaunt a year later was for eight. The 2011 trip was arranged by U.S.-based Islamic travel agency Dar El Salam and was a package the company calls the "Sacred Caravan Umrah." The package costs up to $4,000 and is generally comprised of four nights at four-star accommodations in Mecca and six nights in Medina, complete with buffet meals, sightseeing and religious studies and lectures. Note his arsenal wasn't exactly cheap, either. How much was this guy making? Your Morning 'I Told You So' from the Nation's Pollsters The Democrats made a critical error in nominating such a widely disliked figure as Hillary Clinton to be their presidential nominee. Sadly, 45 percent of Republican primary voters chose to nominate the one man who could lose to her, and lose badly: Seven in 10 Americans see Donald Trump unfavorably in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, up 10 points in just the past month to a new high since he announced his candidacy for president. But Hillary Clinton reached a new high for unfavorability as well, 55 percent. The results mark the striking challenges facing both candidates, cementing their position as the two most unpopular presumptive major party nominees for president in ABC News/Washington Post polling dating to 1984. Trump's result reverses a boost he received after securing the Republican presidential nomination, from 37-60 percent favorable-unfavorable in mid-May to 29-70 percent now, after a week in which he took sharp criticism for suggesting that he was being treated unfairly by a federal judge because of the judge's Mexican heritage. Trump, back in January: Look, the African Americans love me because they know I am going to bring back jobs. They are going to like me better than they like Obama. The truth is Obama has done nothing for them.END Geraldo Rivera, back in March: "I predict that Trump may get as much as 25 percent of the African American vote." I know this will shock you, but the general election isn't quite turning out that way: Even more striking is Trump's unfavorability rating among racial and ethnic minorities -- a virtually unanimous 94 percent of blacks see him negatively, as do 89 percent of Hispanics; that declines to 59 percent among whites. Clinton is more unpopular than Trump among whites -- 68 percent see her unfavorably -- but vastly more popular among nonwhites. ADDENDA: Trump's latest argument: The troops in Iraq are a bunch of crooks: Iraq, crooked as hell. How about bringing baskets of money — millions and millions of dollars — and handing it out?," Trump said at an evening rally. "I want to know who were the soldiers that had that job, because I think they're living very well right now, whoever they may be. Trump's spokeswoman later clarified he only meant Iraqi soldiers. | 
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