FBI: No Sign of Criminal or Intelligence Ties between Trump and Russia

November 01, 2016

We all made it to November. Let's give ourselves a little round of applause for that.

Go figure!

The New York Times:

For much of the summer, the F.B.I. pursued a widening investigation into a Russian role in the American presidential campaign. Agents scrutinized advisers close to Donald J. Trump, looked for financial connections with Russian financial figures, searched for those involved with hacking the computers of Democrats, and even chased a lead — which they ultimately came to doubt — about a possible secret channel of email communications from the Trump organization to a Russian bank.

Law enforcement officials say that none of the investigations so far have found any conclusive or direct link between Mr. Trump and the Russian government. And even the hacking into Democratic e-mails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump.

Hillary Clinton's supporters, angry over what they regard as a lack of scrutiny of Mr. Trump by law enforcement officials, pushed for these investigations. In recent days they have also demanded that James B. Comey, the director of the F.B.I, discuss them publicly, as he did last week when he announced that a new batch of emails possibly connected to Mrs. Clinton had been discovered.

The good news: Donald Trump is NOT offering kind words and a strangely consistent preference for a more conciliatory attitude to Vladimir Putin because he's being bribed or blackmailed.

The bad news: Donald Trump is offering kind words and a strangely consistent preference for a more conciliatory attitude to Vladimir Putin because he actually thinks it's a good idea.

It does say something that so many Democrats were convinced Trump had to be all warm and fuzzy towards Moscow because he was being paid to have that position. That motivation makes sense to them, sort of like taking it easy on Morocco's human-rights record because a mining company connected to the kingdom has made a $12 million donation to your personal foundation.

But those of us who have watched Trump for a while remember his Tiananmen Square comments and kind words for Saddam Hussein, Moammar Qaddafi, and the rest. You don't really have to bribe the mogul to get him to say nice things about foreign strongmen with brutal methods. He just does it instinctively.

The core question at the heart of every Trump decision and interaction is, "Am I being respected enough?" Any slight, insult, or lack of respect sets off Trump's sense of grievance and need for revenge. All slights, insults, and signs of disrespect are indications of weakness. They must be rooted out and snuffed out; they must be humiliated. Counter-punch anyone who dares criticize — even a Gold Star family. No act, comment, or gesture can be ignored. Even loyalists need to be periodically humiliated so that they'll remember their place — think of Chris Christie.

Trump looks at Vladimir Putin's Russia and sees a well-run place. Nobody messes with the boss over there. Everybody knows their place. It's orderly. Everybody respects that leader's strength. As longtime Trump employee Michael Cohen put it, "To those of us who are close to Mr. Trump, he is more than our boss. He is our patriarch."

This is a terrible, dangerous attitude to have in a president. Of course, the Clintons are as narcissistic, egomaniacal, and vindictive, with an enemies spreadsheet instead of an enemies list. No, that's not comic exaggeration.

A Crazy Tracking Poll? Or Is Hillary the Worst Closer of All Time?

Either the ABC News-Washington Post tracking poll is wildly volatile, or the FBI news really has taken a sledgehammer to Hillary Clinton's once-considerable lead.

While vote preferences have held essentially steady, she's now a slim point behind Donald Trump -- a first since May -- in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Forty-six percent of likely voters support Trump in the latest results, with 45 percent for Clinton. Taking it to the decimal for illustrative purposes, a mere .7 of a percentage point divides them. Third-party candidate Gary Johnson has 3 percent, a new low; Jill Stein, 2 percent.

This is the tracking poll that had Clinton ahead, 50 percent to 38 percent, on October 23. Yes, if this survey is correct, in eight days, Hillary Clinton has lost a 12-point lead.

Similarly, I still think Hillary Clinton is a safe bet to win Virginia, but the latest Washington Post poll has her up by 6 points and the new Emerson poll has her up by 4 points. That may sound secure, but three polls had her with a double-digit lead a little more than a week ago. (How may Virginians work for the FBI? How many have a friend or neighbor who does? How many bristle at the Hillary campaign's complaint that the Bureau is behaving in a partisan way by investigating her insecure e-mail server?)

Democrats, Not Quite Seeing the Early Vote Numbers They Wanted to See

One other blinking red light on the Clinton campaign car dashboard says "FLORIDA EARLY VOTE":

African-Americans traditionally dominate early in-person voting. But they didn't show in force this weekend. And Hastings said he wasn't surprised. After Sunday night's polls closed, black voters accounted for 16 percent of the in-person early vote ballots cast. And that included five previous days of in-person early voting.

But in 2012, in just two days of in-person early voting, blacks cast 25 percent of those early ballots, according to Dan Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who published some of the early voting data on his must-read Election Smith blog.

Due to such strong African-American turnout after the beginning of in-person early voting in 2012, Democrats began outpacing Republicans in total ballots cast before Election Day, by about 10,000. This year, though, Republicans still cling to their own lead of about 9,000. As of Monday morning about 3.7 million absentee and in-person early ballots had been cast, 40.5 percent of them by Republicans and 40.2 percent by Democrats.

Meanwhile, in Ohio:

More than 1 million early votes had been cast as of Friday, according to Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted. At the same point in 2012, more than 1.2 million had been cast. But remember, there was a heavy push to get voters to the polls Saturday and Sunday. This does not include any totals from in-person voting at local boards of elections over the weekend.

One early vote Trump didn't get: John Kasich's. The Ohio governor, whose bid for the GOP presidential nomination fell short this year, said last month he wouldn't vote for the New York real estate developer whose rhetoric he often criticized. Kasich followed through Monday, writing in Arizona Sen. John McCain on his absentee ballot.

Last cycle, 5.5 million Ohioans voted in the presidential election.

ADDENDA: If you have CNN, I'm scheduled to appear with John Berman and Kate Bolduan sometime in the 11 a.m. hour Eastern. If you have CNN International, I'm scheduled to appear on State of the Race at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.

Looks like the Hillary campaign has to put a new caveat in her advertising: