Morning Jolt: Don’t Get Your Hopes Up about Voter Turnout

Making the click-through worthwhile: why we shouldn't put much faith in those polls showing an extremely high percentage of the electorate is certain to vote in November; Beto O'Rourke's most desperate line in his debate; a long-forgotten figure hints he'll throw his hat in the ring in 2020; and some dramatic new survey numbers in Florida.

Lots of People Who Tell Pollsters That They'll Vote . . . End Up Not Voting

Every year, we get told that we've never seen young people so fired up to vote.

Back in 2014, the Pew Research Center went back and looked to see if the people they polled actually went and voted. Unsurprisingly, a good chunk of respondents did not vote.

While changed minds contributed to some of the difference between the September poll result and the final outcome, this factor was less important than the turnout differential between Republicans and Democrats. Fully 73 percent of pre-election registered voters who supported a Republican candidate in the pre-election survey ...

October 17 2018

VISIT NATIONALREVIEW.COM

Don't Get Your Hopes Up about Voter Turnout Jim Geraghty Making the click-through worthwhile: why we shouldn't put much faith in those polls showing an extremely high percentage of the electorate is certain to vote in November; Beto O'Rourke's most desperate line in his debate; a long-forgotten figure hints he'll throw his hat in the ring in 2020; and some dramatic new survey numbers in Florida. Lots of People Who Tell Pollsters That They'll Vote . . . End Up Not Voting Every year, we get told that we've never seen young people so fired up to vote. Back in 2014, the Pew Research Center went back and looked to see if the people they polled actually went and voted. Unsurprisingly, a good chunk of respondents did not vote. While changed minds contributed to some of the difference between the September poll result and the final outcome, this factor was less important than the turnout differential between Republicans and Democrats. Fully 73 percent of pre-election registered voters who supported a Republican candidate in the pre-election survey ... Read More ADVERTISEMENT Top Stories Why America Is Exceptional Dennis Prager Amidst division, don't forget the beauty of the American identity. In First Man, Look for the Moonwatch That Almost Wasn't Jibran Khan NASA's certification has served as something of a time capsule for the Omega Speedmaster, the moonwatch that was almost killed by trade protectionists before Buzz Aldrin got the chance to wear it in space. O'Rourke Recycles Trump's 'Lyin' Ted' Nickname in Debate with Cruz Jack Crowe "Sen. Cruz isn't going to be honest, he's dishonest," said O'Rourke. "That's why [Trump's] nickname stuck -- because it's true." ADVERTISEMENT What Do We Really Know about Saudi Arabia? Kevin D. Williamson Despite its awesome resources, the U.S. government does not seem to quite know what to make of the Khashoggi affair. The Grim Truth about Saudi Arabia J. J. McCullough A mature society would be able to handle a moderate dissident like Jamal Khashoggi. The Saudi kingdom apparently could not, and the consequences seem clear. Mississippi Shows Need for Transparency around Civil Forfeiture Aaron Rice Law enforcement agencies in Mississippi are using the system for personal gain. Ben Carson Takes on High Housing Costs Michael Tanner By setting his sights on local zoning and land-use laws, Ben Carson aims to tackle the serious problem of high housing costs. Roberts Breaks Silence on Kavanaugh Battle: 'We Serve One Nation' Jack Crowe Roberts said in light of the "contentious events in Washington in recent weeks" he wanted to "emphasize how the judicial branch is, must be, very different." ADVERTISEMENT JOIN NRPLUS All Our Content. Fewer Ads. Members-Only Privileges. NRPLUS is everything you would associate with a digital magazine subscription, and a whole lot more ─ including up to 90% fewer on-site ads, access to our private Facebook group, full commenting privileges, and invites to our writer/editor conference calls. SAVE 40% TODAY Photo Essays Barcolana Sailing Regatta Cartoons of the Day: October 16, 2018 ADVERTISEMENT Follow Us & Share 19 West 44th Street, Suite 1701, New York, NY, 10036, USA Your Preferences | Unsubscribe | Privacy View this e-mail in your browser.