Morning Jolt: The Polls Aren’t Always Wrong

The autumn begins in earnest, your life is about to be inundated with pumpkin-spice everything, and the presidential election kicks into a higher gear. Today we dispel the "the polls are always wrong and don't mean anything" argument, looking hard at the aggregate polling in the swing states in the 2018 midterms. You can find a few surprises here and there, particularly in the Sunshine State, but by and large, pollsters knew what they were doing two years ago.

Psst! The State Polls Were Pretty Darn Accurate in 2018!

When we discuss the presidential polling in 2020, what should interest us the most is the state polling for Arizona, Florida, maybe Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, probably Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin . . . and that's about it. Maybe New Hampshire and Maine's Second Congressional District.

And perhaps the most important question is, do the state polls in aggregate give us a good sense of who is going to win in these key states? In a lot of the big statewide races in these states in 2018, the aggregate polling did give us a clear view of who was ahead.

In Arizona, the gubernatorial ...

WITH JIM GERAGHTY September 08 2020 WITH JIM GERAGHTY September 08 2020 The Polls Aren't Always Wrong The autumn begins in earnest, your life is about to be inundated with pumpkin-spice everything, and the presidential election kicks into a higher gear. Today we dispel the "the polls are always wrong and don't mean anything" argument, looking hard at the aggregate polling in the swing states in the 2018 midterms. You can find a few surprises here and there, particularly in the Sunshine State, but by and large, pollsters knew what they were doing two years ago. Psst! The State Polls Were Pretty Darn Accurate in 2018! When we discuss the presidential polling in 2020, what should interest us the most is the state polling for Arizona, Florida, maybe Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, probably Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin . . . and that's about it. Maybe New Hampshire and Maine's Second Congressional District. And perhaps the most important question is, do the state polls in aggregate give us a good sense of who is going to win in these key states? In a lot of the big statewide races in these states in 2018, the aggregate polling did give us a clear view of who was ahead. In Arizona, the gubernatorial ...   READ MORE

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