For well over a year, a certain clique of researchers tarred the idea that COVID-19 initially escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan as a conspiracy theory. Now, their grip on that narrative within the scientific community is loosening, as a growing chorus of experts calls for a closer look at this lab-leak hypothesis.
In a letter published this afternoon at Science, 18 scientists call for an investigation into the pandemic's origins that does not discount the possibility of a lab leak. "Theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable," they write. "Knowing how COVID-19 emerged is critical from informing global strategies to mitigate the risk of future outbreaks."
These researchers have joined the WHO director-general, top intelligence officials, and other U.S. government experts in asserting that such a leak remains a possible explanation, despite a joint WHO-China study's findings that such a theory is "extremely unlikely." Like the Biden administration and 13 other countries that signed onto a U.S.-led statement after the report's release, they raise concerns about how the panel reached its findings. Their letter comes as members of Congress have started to ramp up their scrutiny of a potential lab-leak origin.
Jamie Metzl, an adviser to the WHO and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, explained the letter’s significance on Twitter. “The chokehold on public consideration of an accidental lab incident as a possible #pandemic origin has just been broken. Following publication of the Science letter, it will be irresponsible for any scientific journal or news outlet to not fully represent this viable hypothesis.”
The Science letter finds the joint WHO-China report lacking and evaluates the likelihood of the different origin theories that the panel assessed: "Although there were no findings in clear support of either a natural spillover or a lab accident, the team assessed a zoonotic spillover from an intermediate host as 'likely to very likely, and a laboratory incident as 'extremely unlikely.'"
The authors of the letters add, "Furthermore, the two theories were not given balanced consideration. Only 4 of the 313 pages of the report and its annexes addressed the possibility of a laboratory accident."
The letter doesn't claim that the lab-leak hypothesis is more credible than the zoonotic origin theory. It's notable, however, that a letter in a major scientific journal is putting these two theories on equal footing.
Some figures associated with The Lancet have called the lab-leak scenario a conspiracy theory, including Jeffrey Sachs, the chair of the medical journal's COVID commission, and Peter Daszak, the chair of the commission's sub-committee on COVID's origins. Daszak, whose nonprofit research group received hundreds of thousands of dollars from the National Institutes of Health for studies on bat coronaviruses at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, was a member of the joint WHO-China panel and has faced charges that he failed to disclose potential conflicts of interest.
Richard Ebright, a Rutgers University chemical biology professor, told National Review last month that their efforts helped to create the false impression that there is a scientific consensus against the possibility of a lab-leak origin. "No such consensus existed then. No such consensus exists now," he said.
This latest entry into the debate, in the pages of a preeminent scientific journal, shows that the ground is shifting away from a hollow narrative that has been all-too pervasive since the start of the pandemic.
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