Nov 15 - What
do the Federal Reserve and neoconservatives have in common? They both
refuse to admit that their policies — the neocons’ promotion of
perpetual war and the Fed's manipulation of the money supply — are
complete failures, having produced the opposite of the promised results.
The latest example of the Federal Reserve engaging in Bill Kristol-like
levels of denial is the Fed’s continued insistence that the return of
70s-style inflation is a “transitory” phenomenon resulting from the end
of the lockdowns. The Fed has acknowledged the “transitory” inflation
will last until at least 2022, yet it is still determined to keep
interest rates at or near zero until the “jobs situation” improves.
To be fair, the Fed has finally announced plans to cut back on its
money-pumping activities by reducing by 15 billion dollars a month its
monthly purchase of 80 billion dollars of Treasury bonds and 40 billion
dollars of mortgage-backed assets.
It is unlikely that the Fed will stick to its plans to “taper” its
purchase of Treasury bonds. The Fed’s Treasury bond purchases enable the
federal government to run up the debt without increasing taxes or
paying punishingly high interest on the debt.
The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2030 the federal debt
interest cost will more than double to 829 billion dollars. That is more
than the government spent on the military in 2020!
Despite the looming fiscal crisis, Congress is unlikely to cut spending
anytime soon. Instead, Congress members are debating a 1.75 trillion
dollars “social spending” plan, having just passed a 1.2 trillion
dollars infrastructure bill. Contrary to the claims of President Biden
and his allies, this new spending will not reduce inflation. What it
will do is hasten and deepen the inevitable economic crisis caused by
government overspending.
Of course, most Republicans will continue opposing big increases in
spending and debt ... as long as a Democrat sits in the Oval Office. A
Republican who becomes president will likely believe, as Dick Cheney has
said, that President Reagan taught us that deficits don’t matter. The
difference between the parties is Republicans are less likely to raise
taxes. So, no matter who controls Congress and the presidency, spending
and debt can keep increasing.
The Fed may also take dramatic action to keep interest rates low if
other purchasers of federal debt demand higher interest rates in
anticipation of future inflation. Such a situation would be a sign of
what Ludwig von Mises called a crack-up boom. A crack-up boom occurs
when the public anticipates continuing devaluation of the currency,
causing them to factor future price increases into their economic plans.
Crack-up booms are preceded or accompanied by economic crises that can
lead to the rise of authoritarianism. However, this is not inevitable.
Important steps can be taken including cutting spending on militarism
and corporate welfare, phasing out the entitlement and welfare programs,
and auditing and ending the Fed. Those of us who know the truth should
seek to convince our fellow citizens of the importance of restoring a
limited, constitutional government that does not try to run the economy,
run the world, or run our lives.
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