In Search of a Red Wave

	The Morning Dispatch: In Search of a Red Wave Plus: Are employers getting used to the remote work model? Declan Garvey and Esther Eaton Aug 26 Happy Friday! Lin-Manuel Miranda’s next project is reportedly an adaptation of Martin Scorcese’s 1977 film, New York,  New York.  Finally, a Broadway musical about the Big Apple! Quick Hits: Today’s Top Stories Magistrate Judge Bruce Reinhart issued an order Thursday mandating the Justice Department unseal a redacted version of the affidavit used to justify the search of Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate earlier this month. The order requires prosecutors to make the document public by 12 p.m. ET today, but it’s unclear how much information it will actually contain after Reinhart approved redactions related to the identities of witnesses and the investigation’s “strategy, direction, scope, sources, and methods.” Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree on Thursday ordering the Russian military to boost troop levels by 137,000 to 1.15 million as the country’s military—which has taken enormous casualties in recent months—prepares for an extended conflict in Ukraine. The decree did not specify where the additional recruits would come from, or the rationale for the increase. With China’s provocations and rhetoric growing increasingly aggressive in recent months, Taiwanese officials on Thursday unveiled a proposal to boost the island’s military budget 13 percent—the largest year-over-year increase since 2007—and allocate an additional $3.6 billion in “special expenditures” to purchase fighter jets, missiles, naval ships, and weapons systems. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense also said yesterday it will install a drone defense system next year after a video of Taiwanese soldiers throwing rocks at a drone—thought to be piloted by a Chinese civilian—flying over a Taiwanese military post went viral. A report published this week by Graphika and the Stanford Internet Observatory indicated that Twitter and Meta, for the first time, recently removed a set of fake accounts from their respective platforms for “using deceptive tactics to promote pro-Western narratives in the Middle East and Central Asia.” The influence campaign had reportedly been active for years, promoting the interests of the United States and its allies, spreading anti-extremism messaging, and opposing countries like Russia, China, and Iran. Neither tech platform directly attributed the activity to the U.S. government, but the U.S. and United Kingdom were listed as the “presumptive” countries of origin. Alondra Nelson, the head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, issued guidance on Thursday recommending that, by 2026, every federal agency update its public access policies to ensure all scientific research funded by taxpayers is available for free immediately after publication. “The American people fund tens of billions of dollars of cutting-edge research annually,” she said. “There should be no delay or barrier between the American public and the returns on their investments in research.” The Internal Revenue Service issued a notice on Wednesday announcing it will refund $1.2 billion in late-filing fees on 2019 and 2020 tax returns due to complications related to the pandemic. The move supposedly affects 1.6 million individual and business taxpayers, and the credits/refunds will be processed automatically.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its updated estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday, finding the U.S. economy contracted less than previously thought. U.S. gross domestic product is now believed to have fallen at a 0.6 percent annual rate from April to June, rather than the initial 0.9 percent estimate. The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial jobless claims—a proxy for layoffs—decreased by 2,000 week-over-week to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 last week, holding steady near the measure’s highest level this year as the tight labor market continues to slacken. The average number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States has declined about 14.5 percent over the past two weeks according to the CDC, while the average number of daily deaths attributed to the virus—a lagging indicator—decreased approximately 15 percent. About 32,900 people are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in the U.S., down from approximately 37,000 two weeks ago. Is the ‘Red Wave’ Lost at Sea? Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election in New York’s bellwether 19th District this week. (Photo by Cindy Schultz for The Washington Post via Getty Images.) Political fundraising emails aren’t known for understatement even in the best of times, but a GOP appeal this week reeked of true desperation: “We’re completely devastated. … Republicans are now in serious danger of LOSING EVERYTHING. Democrats have the momentum.” A little panicked prose presumably gets the donor dollars flowing, but the copywriters do have a point: While Republicans aren’t likely to LOSE EVERYTHING in the midterms, a Democratic win in New York’s bellwether 19th congressional district on Tuesday suggested that Democrats may still have a chance of avoiding the full-on shellacking that’s been predicted for months. When Democrat Antonio Delgado left his seat in the district to become New York’s lieutenant governor in May, he set up a fascinating special election. Barack Obama won the 19th in 2012, Donald Trump took it in 2016, and Joe Biden reclaimed it by about 1.5 points in 2020. It’d be an uphill climb for Democrats to hold onto the seat, though, given the traditional headwinds facing the president’s party in midterm elections. Biden’s approval rating has recovered somewhat from its late-July nadir, but it’s still barely above 40 percent, so Tuesday’s special election seemed like a good place for Republicans’ much-anticipated “red wave” to begin to crest. But Pat Ryan, the Democratic candidate, defeated Republican Marc Molinaro by about 2 percentage points, 51 percent to 49 percent. While Molinaro centered his campaign on crime and inflation, Ryan pivoted this summer to to focus on the fight for abortion access after the Supreme Courts’ Dobbs ruling. “Choice was on the ballot,” Ryan said in a victory statement. “Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won.” Ryan will serve out the remaining four months of Delgado’s term, and, thanks to redistricting, both he and Molinaro will be back on the ballot in separate, competitive districts come November. Join now to continue reading Work-From-Home is Here to Stay After about two years of remote work, Apple really, really wants its Bay Area employees to come back to the office—and Apple’s Bay Area employees really, really don’t want to do that.  CEO Tim Cook recently told employees they’ll be required to work in-person on Tuesdays and Thursdays starting in September, plus a third day decided on by their team. But nearly 1,000 employees have signed a petition asking Cook to let employees decide with their managers which days to work in-person. They may not prevail, but even Cook’s proposed hybrid plan reflects that—for the categories of employees who can telework—remote work is here to stay. About 7 percent of employed Americans are still working remotely specifically because of COVID-19, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But employees who plunged into remote work during pandemic lockdowns—many for the first time in their careers—increasingly cite other reasons for wanting to stick with it: no commute, better focus, flexibility to manage a chronic illness or watch a child, freedom to live somewhere cheaper or close to family. The Apple employee petition doesn’t even specifically mention COVID-19. Join now to continue reading Worth Your Time For many people without student loans, the sense of unfairness that accompanies President Biden’s decision this week is more experiential than financial. In an essay for Reason, Fiona Harrigan recounts spending her final years of high school taking the ACT and SAT five times to get a score high enough for merit scholarships, throwing away her “dream” list of schools and rewriting a “realistic” one, and ultimately settling on living at home and commuting to the local public university. “I took on heavy course loads and cashed in on AP credits to finish school a semester early. I didn’t study abroad in college. I dropped a second major and elected not to participate in language programs and research opportunities so I could finish school earlier,” she writes. “[Biden’s announcement] leaves me wondering which opportunities I unnecessarily gave up in the name of saving and scrimping. Could I have learned another language? Lived abroad? Taken an additional major? Conducted more independent research? Spent more time building professional connections rather than speeding through required courses?” Presented Without Comment Miles G. Cohen @MilesGCohen Charlie Crist says he doesn't want any DeSantis supporters' votes in November, in first presser as Dem. Gov. Nominee. "Those who support the governor should stay with him. I don't want your vote. If you have that hate in your heart, keep it there," he said. August 24th 2022 618 Retweets2,912 Likes Also Presented Without Comment Adam Wren @adamwren "He's from Indiana, he thinks he's seen everything, but he hasn't seen the Minnesota State Fair, which is the biggest state fair in the country," Klobuchar said. "I will be bringing him to the butter carving." Sen. Klobuchar plans to bring Pete Buttigieg to the State Fair butter carving booth ThursdayKlobuchar said that the Minnesota State Fair is a great opportunity for residents to get face time with their elected.cbsnews.com August 25th 2022 165 Retweets2,014 Likes Toeing the Company Line Donald Trump should not be trusted with classified information, Klon argues in Thursday’s edition of The Current (🔒). “Some will reject this out of hand and will attribute my critique to ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome,’ political naivete, or just plain stupidity,” he writes. “But my recommendation that this man never again be allowed anywhere near state secrets—or the Oval Office—is based on a pure, hard-nosed assessment of the situation.” Plus: How big a deal is that Twitter whistleblower? Drowning in book tour responsibilities, Chris promises to be “back and ranker than ever next week.” But he still managed to cobble together a slimmed-down Stirewaltisms (🔒) yesterday with his AEI colleague Nate Moore. “I am most eager to get back to writing about the news rather than the news about the news,” Chris says. “And with just 75 days to go until the midterm elections, it couldn’t happen at a better time.” On today’s episode of The Dispatch Podcast, Jonah, David, and Declan talk student loan forgiveness and the end of primary season. Has Florida—home of Florida Man—somehow managed to maintain pretty normal politics? Why does Declan feel like he is “legitimately losing his mind?” Is calling Anthony Fauci an “elf” fair game? On the site today, Mindy Belz details the latest humanitarian failure in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Andrew Fink digs into the hyperbolic rhetoric of Russia’s defense minister, and Brian Riedl looks at the weak Republican response to Biden’s student loan debacle. Like Join now . © 2022 The Dispatch 1020 19th Street NW, Washington, D.C., 20036