Morning Jolt: Are Republican Candidates Taking the Red Wave for Granted?

On the menu today: Democrats are claiming that the red wave is canceled, and are even whispering that they have a shot of keeping control of the House of Representatives. You can over-interpret a late-August special House election or two, but there are definite signs that Republicans' momentum has slowed — or maybe even stalled. The big question now is: How well can this crop of GOP candidates perform if they don't have a strong wind at their backs?

Stay Alert, Republicans

Yes, you can over-interpret a special-election result. When you hold an election on a day besides the first Tuesday in November, turnout is usually significantly lower. Only the diehards are interested, the process of selecting candidates is dependent upon a smaller group of party regulars, and odd things can happen as a result.

In special elections, parties can win seats that they would never win under normal circumstances. Back in 2010, Republican Charles Djou won a seat in an exceptionally Democratic-leaning district in Hawaii, in part because it was an unusual three-way race. Back in 2011, Republican Bob Turner won Anthony Weiner's district ...

WITH JIM GERAGHTY August 26 2022 WITH JIM GERAGHTY August 26 2022 Are Republican Candidates Taking the Red Wave for Granted? On the menu today: Democrats are claiming that the red wave is canceled, and are even whispering that they have a shot of keeping control of the House of Representatives. You can over-interpret a late-August special House election or two, but there are definite signs that Republicans' momentum has slowed — or maybe even stalled. The big question now is: How well can this crop of GOP candidates perform if they don't have a strong wind at their backs? Stay Alert, Republicans Yes, you can over-interpret a special-election result. When you hold an election on a day besides the first Tuesday in November, turnout is usually significantly lower. Only the diehards are interested, the process of selecting candidates is dependent upon a smaller group of party regulars, and odd things can happen as a result. In special elections, parties can win seats that they would never win under normal circumstances. Back in 2010, Republican Charles Djou won a seat in an exceptionally Democratic-leaning district in Hawaii, in part because it was an unusual three-way race. Back in 2011, Republican Bob Turner won Anthony Weiner's district ...   READ MORE

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