Morning Jolt: Midterm Polls Look Better for Republicans Than We’ve Been Led to Believe

On the menu today: As the midterm elections get closer, it's worth keeping some key lessons in mind while perusing the latest polls. First, a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll buried the lead, which shows Republicans well ahead in the key swing districts — and this tells us a lot more than the usual generic-ballot numbers. Second, it's getting a little late in the cycle for polls of registered voters, but they keep showing up, and there's good reason to think that the polls are using a way-too-generous definition of a "likely voter." Third, even if the midterm outlook isn't as good for Republicans as it was in the early summer, that doesn't mean the outlook is bad. And finally, NBC News commentator Jen Psaki, Biden’s former White House press secretary, offers some surprisingly blunt truth for her party and former boss.

Checking the Numbers . . .

There are a few things to keep in mind about polling as the days grow shorter and September turns to October:

One: The generic-ballot question isn't focused on the districts that matter most.

The generic-ballot question is an imperfect measurement ...

WITH JIM GERAGHTY September 27 2022 WITH JIM GERAGHTY September 27 2022 Midterm Polls Look Better for Republicans Than We've Been Led to Believe On the menu today: As the midterm elections get closer, it's worth keeping some key lessons in mind while perusing the latest polls. First, a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll buried the lead, which shows Republicans well ahead in the key swing districts — and this tells us a lot more than the usual generic-ballot numbers. Second, it's getting a little late in the cycle for polls of registered voters, but they keep showing up, and there's good reason to think that the polls are using a way-too-generous definition of a "likely voter." Third, even if the midterm outlook isn't as good for Republicans as it was in the early summer, that doesn't mean the outlook is bad. And finally, NBC News commentator Jen Psaki, Biden’s former White House press secretary, offers some surprisingly blunt truth for her party and former boss. Checking the Numbers . . . There are a few things to keep in mind about polling as the days grow shorter and September turns to October: One: The generic-ballot question isn't focused on the districts that matter most. The generic-ballot question is an imperfect measurement ...   READ MORE

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