Daily on Defense: Carter’s prescient Putin warnings, Biden meets with DOD leaders, Jayapal’s embarrassing walk back

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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CARTER ON PUTIN: Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter, who died Tuesday of a heart attack at his home in Boston at the age of 68, will mostly be remembered for opening military combat roles for women, removing barriers for transgender troops, and helping to fashion the "by, with, and through" strategy that defeated the Islamic State.

But the Harvard- and Oxford-educated Pentagon chief also saw himself as the lone voice sounding the alarm about the dangers posed by an increasingly embittered Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to his 2019 memoir Inside the Five-Sided Box.

"In my view, Putin is a man consumed by three bitter beliefs: that the end of the Cold War was not a rebirth for Russia and its people but a humiliation; that the United States had made a mess of things by destabilizing countries and unhorsing their leaders, and would do the same to Russia and him if it could; and that, therefore, thwarting the United States around the world must be a central objective of Russian foreign policy," Carter wrote, arguing Putin's revanchist motivations made it "almost impossible" to build a bridge to better relations with Russia.

"There's no way the United States can collaborate in the frustration of its own policies. Thus, Putin's attitudes toward the United States place our two countries on course for continual friction, including potential military conflict," he wrote.

"Russia," Carter warned, "has used its political, economic, and military power to undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia and Ukraine, flouting accepted international principles such as nonaggression. … It has sought to intimidate Sweden, Finland, and the Baltic states, as well as other countries along Russia's periphery."

'NOT EVERYONE IN THE WHITE HOUSE SHARED MY CONCERNS': Carter described reluctance among some in the Obama administration to see Putin's Russia as "a serious political and military threat to the democracies of the West."

"Not everyone in the White House shared my concerns about Russia," he wrote. "For example, the White House staff had drafted a Russia-strategy document that I had a chance to review before it was adopted. … Unfortunately, working in haste, I didn't catch one phrase in it that I should have: the words that Russia was 'not an existential threat' to the United States. This was factually nonsensical: How could a country with many thousands of nuclear weapons trained on the United States not be an existential threat?"

Carter said in his one-on-one meetings with Barack Obama that the then-president shared his concerns but said there were others in his administration "who didn't want to bear the political burden" of developing new war plans to counter Putin. "Doing so required us to admit that the relationship with Russia had become largely antagonistic rather than cooperative."

"I was the only senior member of the administration actually describing the policy the president's actions reflected and its strategic rationale."

'I SMELLED A TRAP': Carter's hard-line views about Putin's Russia clashed with then-Secretary of State John Kerry, who was tasked with trying to work out some arrangement for cooperating with Russia on ending the civil war in Syria.

"The administration's less-than-wholehearted pushback against Russian aggression almost led to disaster in Syria," wrote Carter. "When the crafty Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov began talking to John Kerry about the possibility of 'cooperating' with Russia militarily in Syria, I smelled a trap."

"I had some sharp debates on this issue with John Kerry. I admired his efforts to get Russia on a more constructive path, but I believed his diplomatic effort to forge a Syria cooperation pact was doomed from the start," he recalled. "We did work with our counterparts in the Russian military to develop some principles of deconfliction to prevent accidental contact between our operations. But beyond this, there was no military cooperation with Russia in Syria."

FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY ASH CARTER DIES AT AGE 68

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, and other Pentagon officials after he welcomes Israeli President Isaac Herzog to the White House this morning.

Biden said he spent considerable time yesterday discussing what's behind Russia's allegation that Ukraine is preparing to use a radiological "dirty bomb" to escalate the war, something the U.S. believes could be a prelude to a "false flag" tactic by Russia to justify going nuclear.

"Let me just say Russia would be making an incredibly serious mistake for it to use a tactical nuclear weapon," Biden said. "I'm not guaranteeing you that it's a false flag operation yet, I don't know, but it would be a serious, serious mistake. "

ALSO TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference with Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca at NATO Headquarters, which will be livestreamed on the NATO website at 8:15 a.m.

Speaking from the hanger deck of the American aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush, which has been chopped to NATO command for exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, Stoltenberg said yesterday that Russia is not fooling anyone with its "transparently false allegation."

"Russia often accuses others of what they intend to do themselves. We have seen this pattern before," said Stoltenberg. "Russia must not use false pretexts for further escalation. The world is watching closely."

"So far, we have not seen any changes in Russia's nuclear posture, but of course we monitor it very closely, and we are vigilant and ready to act if necessary," he said. "But the most important thing now is to convey a clear message or show that they should, of course, not use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine."

RUSSIA WALKS BACK RISK OF DIRTY BOMB PLOT AMID NATO WARNINGS

THE PROGRESSIVE LETTER FIASCO: In the face of withering blowback and charges that liberal Democrats were playing into Putin's strategy to force Ukraine to trade land for peace, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, was forced to withdraw a letter that urged Biden to prioritize diplomacy to end the war, including direct talks with Moscow.

In a tacit admission that the letter was a serious misstep, Jayapal released a mea culpa one day after the letter was publicly released.

"The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine," she said. "The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting. As chair of the caucus, I accept responsibility for this."

Jayapal said the original letter was misinterpreted as a lack of support for Biden's strategy to support Ukraine's war effort until Ukraine itself decides it's time to pursue peace talks.

"Nothing could be further from the truth. Every war ends with diplomacy, and this one will too after Ukrainian victory," Jayapal wrote. "The letter sent yesterday, although restating that basic principle, has been conflated with GOP opposition to support for the Ukrainians' just defense of their national sovereignty. As such, it is a distraction at this time and we withdraw the letter."

RO KHANNA STANDS BY 'COMMON SENSE' LETTER TO BIDEN URGING DIPLOMACY IN UKRAINE

CARTER REMEMBERED: The sudden, unexpected death of Ash Carter, the 25th secretary of defense, prompted an outpouring of condolences, including from Biden, who called Carter "a man of extraordinary integrity" who was "born a patriot."

"Ash was a leader on all the major national security issues of our times — from nuclear deterrence to proliferation prevention to missile defense to emerging technology challenges to the fight against Al Qaeda and ISIS. He opened every field of military service to women and protected the rights of transgender service members," Biden said in a statement.

Austin said Carter was "a scientist, a scholar, and a strategist" who "understood early the importance of innovation and technological progress."

"He forged vital new relationships with Silicon Valley, and his legacy continues today," Austin said in a statement.

The leaders of the Senate Armed Services Committee praised his leadership in a joint release. Committee Chairman Jack Reed (D-RI) called Carter "a dedicated patriot and public servant" who "committed his life and career to strengthening our nation."

"Secretary Carter was a fearless advocate for our military men and women, and his life's work will live on as his insights and initiatives continue to serve as a part of the foundation of America's defense strategy," said ranking member Jim Inhofe (R-OK). "The honor and integrity that he showed throughout his career made our country a better place." 

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter dies at age 68

Washington Examiner: 'Madness': Putin plays nuclear mind games as war pressure builds on Kremlin

Washington Examiner: Russia walks back risk of dirty bomb plot amid NATO warnings

Washington Examiner: Jayapal blames staff for retracted Ukraine diplomacy letter amid backlash

Washington Examiner: Ro Khanna stands by 'common sense' letter to Biden urging diplomacy in Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Chinese spy made demands of US double agent just days before Huawei hostage scandal

Washington Examiner: Britain's new prime minister will raise hopes in Beijing and concerns in Washington

Washington Post: Russia plots a dark winter

Washington Post: Mercenary group chief has Putin's ear on war

Washington Post: European allies worry U.S. could dial back support for Ukraine

Sky News: 'Ready For Anything': U.S. Aircraft Carrier Crew Training For War With Russia But Aims To Deter Threats

USNI News: Russian Sea-Based Kalibr Cruise Missiles Part Of New Round Of Strikes In Ukraine

Defense News: Ukraine-Bound NASAMS Are In U.S. Hands Now: Raytheon

AP: US Vows Full Military Defense of Allies Against North Korea

CBS: Russia Has Notified the US Its Annual Nuclear Exercise Has Begun, US Officials Say

Reuters: China Likely To Ramp Up Diplomatic 'Attacks' On Taiwan, Island's Foreign Minister Says

Inside Defense: Del Toro Sounds Alarm To Defense Industry On Chinese Spying

Washington Times: New British Prime Minister Vows To Counter Chinese Communist Threats

Military Times: U.S. Launches Airstrike To Assist Somali Forces Under Attack

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Working from 'Clean Sheet,' China Building Up Space Power at 'Incredible Rate,' USSF Leaders Say

Federal News Network: Space Force Moves to Consolidate Its Intelligence Community

Air & Space Forces Magazine: LaPlante: DOD Won't 'Kick the Can' on F-35 New Engine Decision; Won't Break Up JPO

Stars and Stripes: Navy's Goshawk Jet Fleet Remains Grounded For Second Week As Engine Probe Continues

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force to Get New CSO, INDOPACOM Component in November, Vice Chief Says

National Defense Magazine: Marine Corps Pursues Multi-Purpose Ground Robot

19fortyfive.com: $115 Billion Dollars in U.S. Aid To Ukraine Is A Bad Idea

19fortyfive.com: Is Putin Building His Very Own Maginot Line in Ukraine?

19fortyfive.com: Putin's Dirty Bomb Scam in Ukraine: What is Russia Thinking?

19fortyfive.com: Why are NATO and Russia Both Now Training for Nuclear War?

19fortyfive.com: B-21: The New Stealth Bomber Russia and China Will Hate

Forbes: Air Force, Navy Plans Look Totally Out Of Sync With China Threat Estimates

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 26

8:15 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference with Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

9 a.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council conference Oct. 25-26: "Turmoil and Transition: Iraq Twenty Years After the Invasion," with panel discussions "Energy, Economy, and the Environment" and "Iraq's Democratic Experience" https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/iraq-twenty-years-after

4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: "Crisis Stability in Space: China and Other Challenges," with National Security Council Space Policy Director Audrey Schaffer; Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation; and Kari Bingen, director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies's Aerospace Security Project https://www.eventbrite.com/e/crisis-stability-in-space-china

4:30 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies book discussion: "Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise," with author Susan Shirk, chairwoman of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

6:30 p.m. — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute virtual discussion: "Great Power competition, the legacy of the late former Secretary of State George Shultz," with former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Burt, managing partner at McLarty Associates; former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Eric Edelman; and former Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute/events

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 27

9 a.m. 400 New Jersey Ave. N.W. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2022 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, with discussions on "Can the Russo-Ukrainian War End Without Nuclear Use?" and "Tick, Tick, Book? Presidential Decision-making in a Nuclear Attack," with Gustavo Zlauvinen, president of the Tenth Review Conference for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/28/2022

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on "U.S. cybersecurity," with National Cyber Director Chris Inglis and Anne Neuberger, deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology https://www.csis.org/events/conversation

5:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: "Breaking the Nuclear Taboo after 77 Years: Are Putin's Threats Credible, Crazy, or Just Psywar?" with Josef Joffe, senior fellow at the SAIS Kissinger Center https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

6 p.m. 1625 I St. N.W. — Women's Foreign Policy Group book discussion on Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise, with author Susan Shirk, chairwoman of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego https://www.wfpg.org/

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 28

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual conversation: "DHS Cyber Priorities for the Coming Year," with Rob Silvers, undersecretary for policy, Department of Homeland Security, and Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser, homeland security, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/dhs-cyber-priorities-coming-year

FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 18 

TBA Halifax, Nova Scotia — 2022 Halifax International Security Forum with more than 300 participants from more than 60 countries across six continents helping to shape strategic thinking leading into 2023. Attendees from the United States include Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) https://halifaxtheforum.org

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Russia often accuses others of what they intend to do themselves. We have seen this pattern before. … Russia must not use false pretexts for further escalation. The world is watching closely."
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking to reporters from the U.S. aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush
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