| US COMMUNICATED 'CLEARLY AND DIRECTLY' TO PUTIN: As President Joe Biden huddled with his top defense leaders at the White House and Russian President Vladimir Putin presided over mock nuclear war games, the United States continued to look for any sign Russia might employ a so-called dirty bomb and blame Ukraine as an excuse to unleash a tactical nuke to regain the advantage in his faltering war. "We're watching that very carefully," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in an interview with Bloomberg. "We haven't seen reason to change our own nuclear posture, but it's something that we're tracking very carefully, and we've also communicated directly and very clearly to the Russians, to President Putin, about the consequences that would flow from any use of a nuclear device." Blinken again dismissed Russian allegations that Ukraine is preparing a dirty bomb that would use conventional explosives to disperse deadly radiological material as "an utter fabrication," but he said he takes seriously it's something Russia might do. "The reason this particular allegation gives us some concern is because Russia has a track record of projecting, which is to say accusing others of doing something that they themselves have done or are thinking about doing," Blinken told Bloomberg's Peggy Collins. "I'm not going to get into speaking publicly to what we and others will do, other than to say that we've communicated that clearly and very directly to the Russians, including President Putin." 'OUT OF THE QUESTION': In an interview with CNN, Moscow's ambassador to the United Kingdom Andrei Kelin insisted Putin has never threatened the use of nuclear weapons and that Russia will not use them in Ukraine. "The minister of defense, [Sergei] Shoigu, he assured every minister once again that we are not going to use nuclear weapon," Kelin told CNN's Christiane Amanpour. "So Russia is not going to use nukes. So it is out of the question." Amanpour pushed back on Kelin's assertion that Putin "never mentioned a possibility" of using nuclear weapons. "Yes, but he has. You know, he's raised veiled threats, and he's worried everybody." Kelin dismissed that as "speculation." "But again, you're saying it is off the table," said Amanpour. "Yes, I am saying that," replied Kelin. PUTIN DUBBED 'FIGHTER OF THE ANTICHRIST' AS 'DE-SATANIZATION' RHETORIC ESCALATES 'WE CAN'T ALLOW PUTIN TO WIN': At the beginning of yesterday's meeting with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, and other top Pentagon officials at the White House, Biden stressed the need to keep the NATO alliance "strong and united." "We're going to continue to support Ukraine, together with our allies and partners around the world, as it defends itself against Russia's brutal aggression," Biden said At NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated that the alliance is ready to support Ukraine for as long as it takes. "We cannot allow President Putin to win. That would be a disaster, a tragedy for Ukrainians, but it would also make us, NATO allies, more vulnerable," Stoltenberg said at a joint news conference with Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca. "Because then the lesson learned from Ukraine for President Putin is that he can achieve his goals by using military force. And that will be a lesson learned not only for him but also for other authoritarian leaders around the world." NATO ALLIES FEAR CONSEQUENCES OF CAVING TO RUSSIA'S 'NUCLEAR BLACKMAIL' Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! POLL: AMERICANS SPLIT ON SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE: A new poll of more than 1,000 likely voters in next month's midterm elections shows that while most people favor supporting Ukraine, they are split on whether that support should be limited to money or weapons or include both. Asked, "What type of ongoing aid from the U.S. to Ukraine are you most likely to support?" only 40% said the U.S. should continue to send both weapons and money. Thirty percent said the U.S. should send weapons but not money, with 4% favoring monetary support but no weapons. That left 25% of respondents who said the U.S. should send nothing at all. "Americans want to continue to help Ukraine defeat Putin, but when you look at the numbers, less than half of voters think that U.S. assistance should include sending more money to Ukraine," said Mark Meckler, president of the Convention of States, which conducted the poll Oct. 8-11 in conjunction with the Trafalgar Group. "Voters believe the U.S. is shouldering the burden of supporting Ukraine and seem to be questioning why we are sending billions overseas while our own economy slides deeper into recession," said Meckler in a statement accompanying the poll results. "Our nation would benefit from hearing President Biden provide a clearly defined mission and role in the U.S. support to Ukraine, and reassurances that this will not just become a never-ending conflict that drains American resources and skyrockets our nation's debt." The poll also found that 51% of voters believe that, considering the U.S. level of commitment to Ukraine, NATO and other European countries are not doing their fair share, with 32% unsure. 'NO WINDOW AT THIS TIME' FOR DIPLOMACY: LEFT-WING SPLIT ON UKRAINE PERSISTS OUTRAGE OVER AIR FORCE LEAK: Two Republican House members said an unauthorized leak of confidential military personnel records of Jennifer-Ruth Green, a Republican candidate for Congress in Indiana, has "improperly affected" the competitive race just weeks before the election. According to Indiana Reps. Jim Banks and Larry Bucshon, both Republicans, the Air Force Inspector General Lt. Gen. Stephen Davis has said the Air Force has taken "full responsibility" for improperly releasing the records of Green, who was a lieutenant colonel in the Air Force. The records were cited in a generally positive profile of Green by Politico, which described her military record as "mostly stellar" but said it was marred by several disciplinary actions and bad reviews of her leadership. The Air Force has identified the alleged leaker, whom it said will be held accountable, and is now investigating whether the leaker had a political or financial motive and whether the leaker acted alone. "The Air Force improperly affected a competitive House race and must provide transparency before election day," said Banks and Bucshon in a statement. "No servicemember should have to fear that their confidential service records will be used against them." HERITAGE FIRES BACK: After an anonymous defense official complained to Politico that the Heritage Foundation's latest ratings of the armed services in its 2023 Index of U.S. Military Strength were "silly and dangerous," the editor of the widely respected report is firing back. "Perhaps one can forgive someone in the Pentagon for taking offense when an outsider says their baby is ugly, but, if it is true, prideful umbrage does not overrule the fact of the matter," writes Heritage's Dakota Wood in a blistering defense on the website 19FortyFive. "When it comes to assessing our military, it's size, readiness, and capabilities that counts. The Pentagon should care far more about its ability to protect U.S. interests than its self-esteem." The Heritage report rated the readiness of the Army as "marginal," the Navy and Space Force as "weak," and the Air Force as "very weak" — the lowest grades in the nine-year history of the highly respected index. Only the Marine Corps and U.S. nuclear forces were rated "strong." "The Index draws its information from the Pentagon's own reports, testimony to Congress, statements from senior officials, acquisition data, and other publicly available information relevant to understanding the state of America's military," writes Wood. "The military assessment section of the 2023 Index includes nearly 700 footnotes supporting our conclusions." SPEAKING OF THE MARINES: The Marine Corps Recruiting Command will debut its new ad campaign during the broadcast of Saturday's Florida-Georgia college football game. The ads depict a futuristic environment with the theme "Shifting Threats" showcasing "the increasingly complex and chaotic global environment that Marines are currently operating in, characterized by 'un' threats: unpredictable, unimaginable, unknown, and undeclared." You can see the new ads here. INDUSTRY WATCH: Boeing reported a whopping third quarter loss of $3.3 billion on revenue of $16 billion, according to its latest earnings report. Boeing's defense, space, and security sector lost $2.8 billion in cost overruns on fixed-price development contracts, including $1.2 billion on the KC-46 Pegasus tanker and a $766 million loss on the new Air Force One. "We continue to make important strides in our turnaround and remain focused on our performance," said Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun. "We remain in a challenging environment and have more work ahead to drive stability, improve our performance, and ensure we're consistently delivering on our commitments. Despite the challenges, I'm proud of our team and the progress we've made to strengthen our company." CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The RundownWashington Examiner: NATO allies fear consequences of caving to Russia's 'nuclear blackmail' Washington Examiner: White House: Iran and Russia have grown closer since invasion of Ukraine Washington Examiner: Putin ally urges Russia's Chechen Muslims to start 'jihad' attacks in Europe Washington Examiner: 'No window at this time' for diplomacy: Left-wing split on Ukraine persists Washington Examiner: Security forces clash with mourners honoring Mahsa Amini 40 days after her death Washington Examiner: Putin dubbed 'fighter of the Antichrist' as 'de-Satanization' rhetoric escalates Washington Examiner: Opinion: The US needs a larger Navy, but first American shipping and shipbuilding must be revived Politico: U.S. Speeds Up Plans To Store Upgraded Nukes In Europe Politico: Ukraine's Defense Minister 'Optimistic' About New Tanks, Fighter Jets From Allies Reuters: Ukrainians Hold Out In East, Prepare Battle For Kherson New York Times: Despite Strains On Coalition, U.S. Foresees No Imminent Peace Talks USNI News: Russian Aggression In Ukraine Boosts Arctic Security Concerns Reuters: Analysis: Need For Speed: China Xi's New Generals Offer Cohesion Over Possible Taiwan Plans Space News: Starlink's Survivability in War a Good Sign for DOD's Future Constellation Military.com: Delay to Incentive Pay Boost for Guard and Reserves Draws Rebuke From Lawmakers Washington Post: In Mozambique, A Brutal ISIS Revolt Of Global Import Air & Space Forces Magazine: SDA Working on 'Translators' to Connect Transport Layer to Other Network Air & Space Forces Magazine: LaPlante on Why Weapon Production Constitutes Deterrence Defense News: Pentagon's Project Maven Transition Stymied by Congress, Official Says Defense Scoop: DOD Creates New JADC2 Integration Office, Puts CDAO in Charge of Data Integration Air & Space Forces Magazine: Boeing Posts $2.8B Quarterly Loss in Defense Business Attributed to KC-46, New Air Force One 19fortyfive.com: Russia and Ukraine Are Headed for a Winter (Nuclear?) War of Hell 19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Says Russia Has Attacked with 400 Kamikaze Drones 19fortyfive.com: NLAW 'Tank-Killer' Missile Continues to Bring the Pain to Russia 19fortyfive.com: What Arms Would Taiwan Need from America to Fight China? 19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Yes, The U.S. Military Is Weak Hudson Institute: Ten Myths about US Aid to Ukraine CalendarTHURSDAY | OCTOBER 27 9 a.m. 400 New Jersey Ave. N.W. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 2022 Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, with discussions on "Can the Russo-Ukrainian War End Without Nuclear Use?" and "Tick, Tick, Book? Presidential Decision-making in a Nuclear Attack," with Gustavo Zlauvinen, president of the Tenth Review Conference for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/28/2022 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on "U.S. cybersecurity," with National Cyber Director Chris Inglis and Anne Neuberger, deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technology https://www.csis.org/events/conversation 5:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: "Breaking the Nuclear Taboo after 77 Years: Are Putin's Threats Credible, Crazy, or Just Psywar?" with Josef Joffe, senior fellow at the SAIS Kissinger Center https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events 6 p.m. 1625 I St. N.W. — Women's Foreign Policy Group book discussion on Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise, with author Susan Shirk, chairwoman of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego https://www.wfpg.org/ FRIDAY | OCTOBER 28 11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual conversation: "DHS Cyber Priorities for the Coming Year," with Rob Silvers, undersecretary for policy, Department of Homeland Security, and Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser, homeland security, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/dhs-cyber-priorities-coming-year FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 18 TBA Halifax, Nova Scotia — 2022 Halifax International Security Forum with more than 300 participants from more than 60 countries across six continents helping to shape strategic thinking leading into 2023. Attendees from the United States include Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member, Senate Foreign Relations Committee; Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE), and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) https://halifaxtheforum.org FRIDAY | DECEMBER 2 TBA Simi Valley, California — Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute annual Reagan National Defense Forum https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute THURSDAY | DECEMBER 8 TBA — Aspen Strategy Group's "Aspen Security Forum: D.C. Edition" https://web.cvent.com/event/ | | | | "Perhaps one can forgive someone in the Pentagon for taking offense when an outsider says their baby is ugly but, if it is true, prideful umbrage does not overrule the fact of the matter. When it comes to assessing our military, it's size, readiness, and capabilities that counts. The Pentagon should care far more about its ability to protect U.S. interests than its self-esteem." | | Dakota Wood, one of the authors of the Heritage Foundation's Index of Military Strength, which rated several services "weak," with only the Marine Corps being rated "strong" |
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