| MORE ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE: Russia claims its continued attacks on Ukraine's electrical grid and power plants are legitimate military targets while arguing Ukraine is crossing a red line when its drone swarm targeted Russian warships in the port of Sevastopol in Russian-occupied Crimea. It's unclear if any of the ships were hit in the Saturday attack by the swarm of seven unmanned surface vessels and nine aerial drones, but dramatic footage posted on social media showed at least one of the speedboat size maritime drones getting within feet of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship, Admiral Makarov. In response, the Russian Foreign Ministry labeled the strike a "terrorist attack," accused "British specialists" of facilitating the attack "under the cover of the humanitarian corridor set up for the implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative," and then promptly announced it was rescinding the deal, which the United States said brought more than 9 million metric tons of food from Ukraine and lowered global food prices. A massive barrage of Russian strikes this morning hit critical infrastructure in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia, among other areas, plunging hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian civilians into darkness and disrupting water supplies. RUSSIA OFFERS TO STOP ATTACKING ELECTRIC GRID IN EXCHANGE FOR UKRAINIAN TERRITORY ZELENSKY: "RUSSIA IS THE ONLY ONE TO BLAME': While not claiming responsibility for the attack at Sevastopol, Ukraine immediately disputed that it took place anywhere near the humanitarian sea lanes, and other Ukrainian backers noted the Admiral Makarov was a frigate armed with the kind of missiles that have been hitting critical civilian infrastructure. "By suspending its participation in the grain deal on a false pretext of explosions 220 kilometers [136 miles] away from the grain corridor, Russia blocks 2 million tons of grain on 176 vessels already at sea — enough to feed over 7 million people," tweeted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. "Russia has planned this well in advance." "Russia is the only one to blame for the fact that food will now become more expensive for people across a vast expanse from West Africa to East Asia," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address. "Russia is the reason why people, in particular in Ethiopia, Yemen, or Somalia, are left with a catastrophic food shortage. … Week after week, Russia has been slowing down the grain corridor despite its own promises to partners and has now blocked it completely." UKRAINIAN FORCES HAVE SHOT DOWN OVER 300 IRANIAN DRONES FIRED BY RUSSIANS RUSSIA SAYS 'PARTIAL MOBILIZATION' COMPLETE: In a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, embattled Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu dutifully reported that the forced conscription of Russian men to replace the heavy losses suffered in the first eight months of war is over. "We have 218,000 at training grounds undergoing joint combat training, 82,000 people are already in areas where the special military operation is being conducted. Of these 82,000, 41,000 are operating as part of the military units," Shoigu told Putin, according to a Kremlin transcript. "The target you set, 300,000 people, has been achieved. No more notices are being served. … No additional objectives are planned. Military enlistment offices will continue to staff the troops for the special military operation only by accepting volunteers." Shoigu acknowledged that there were "problems" equipping and feeding all the new conscripts but insisted, "These problems have been resolved." "All those deployed to their units are provided with the required supplies, uniforms, equipment, and food at the same standard as professional military personnel serving under contract," he said. Meanwhile, the British Defense Ministry said many of the new troops have been issued antiquated and faulty rifles. "Open source images suggest that those rifles which have been issued to mobilized reservists are typically AKMs, a weapon first introduced in 1959. Many are likely in barely usable condition following poor storage," the ministry said in a Twitter thread. Other reports suggest that Russian forces have been ordered to establish a "second front line" to shoot deserters who flee from the advancing Ukrainian troops, citing an intercepted audio recording of a Russian soldier calling home. PUTIN WON'T SURVIVE THE WAR AND COULD BE TOPPLED BEFORE IT ENDS, TOP UKRAINE OFFICIAL SAYS Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! MORE ARMS AND AMMO TO UKRAINE: The Pentagon on Friday announced the latest tranche of military materiel headed to Ukraine, a $275 million package that brings the total dollar amount of security assistant to Ukraine to more than $18.5 billion since the beginning of the Biden administration. The latest commitment includes: - Additional ammunition for HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) launchers
- 500 precision-guided 155 mm artillery rounds
- 2,000 155 mm rounds of remote anti-armor mine systems
- Over 1,300 anti-armor systems, including AT4 anti-tank weapons and shoulder-launched multipurpose assault weapons
- 125 Humvees
- Small arms with more than 2.75 million rounds
- Four satellite communications antennas to augment Ukraine's communications capabilities, which include Starlink
"The United States is steadfast in our commitment to helping Ukraine address its immediate and long-term security needs," said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a tweet. "Friday's assistance package provides more of the systems and equipment the Ukrainians have been using so effectively to defend their country." DEFENSE DEPARTMENT ANNOUNCES $275 MILLION MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE ISW PREDICTS: At the eight-month mark, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War is making some predictions about how Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to conduct the war in Ukraine over the winter. The ISW forecast is based on two key assessments: "First, that Putin is setting conditions to continue throwing poorly prepared Russian troops directly into the fighting in Ukraine for the foreseeable future rather than pausing operations to reconstitute effective military forces. Second, that Putin's theory of victory relies on using the harsh winter to break Europe's will." "Putin will most likely try to continue conventional military operations in Ukraine to hold currently occupied territories, gain new ground, and set conditions for the collapse of Western support for Ukraine that he likely expects to occur this winter," the forecast said. "Putin has likely not abandoned hopes of achieving his maximalist aims in Ukraine through conventional military means … and is unlikely to escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons barring the sudden collapse of the Russian military." "Putin is extraordinarily unlikely to seek direct military conflict with NATO," the ISW said, but he "is very likely to continue to hint at the possibility of Russian tactical nuclear use and attacks on NATO, however, as parts of his effort to break Western will to continue supporting Ukraine." PUTIN 'WORRIED' ABOUT SOUTH KOREA SENDING WEAPONS TO UKRAINE GITMO'S OLDEST PRISONER TRANSFERRED: Over the weekend, the Pentagon announced it was releasing another prisoner from the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba into the custody of Pakistan, thereby reducing the remaining population at the prison camp to 35. Saifullah Paracha, 75, was arrested two years after the 9/11 attacks and was the oldest prisoner at Guantanamo. Paracha, a suspected al Qaeda sympathizer, was held for two decades but never formally charged with anything. "The United States appreciates the willingness of Pakistan and other partners to support ongoing U.S. efforts focused on responsibly reducing the detainee population and ultimately closing the Guantanamo Bay facility," the Pentagon said in a statement. Of the 35 remaining prisoners, 20 are judged to be eligible for transfer, three are eligible for a formal review, nine are currently involved in the military commissions process, and three have been convicted in military commissions. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The RundownWashington Examiner: Ukrainian forces have shot down over 300 Iranian drones fired by Russians Washington Examiner: Russia offers to stop attacking electric grid in exchange for Ukrainian territory Washington Examiner: Putin won't survive the war and could be toppled before it ends, top Ukraine official says Washington Examiner: Putin 'worried' about South Korea sending weapons to Ukraine Washington Examiner: Defense Department announces $275 million military aid to Ukraine Washington Examiner: Xi Jinping consolidates power by elevating intelligence and police chiefs to key roles AP: Barrage of Russian strikes hits key Ukrainian infrastructure Washington Post: Desperate Russia Cultivates Ties With Iran, Saudi Arabia Reuters: Russia Says UK Navy Blew Up Nord Stream, London Denies Involvement New York Times: Leaders Urge Russia To Rejoin Grain Deal As Hunger Rises AP: West says no biological weapons in Ukraine, Russia disagrees Lawfire: Is Attacking the Electricity Infrastructure Used by Civilians Always a War Crime? Bloomberg: Blinken Speaks With China's Top Diplomat in Latest Sign of Thaw Politico: EU Lawmakers Sanctioned By Beijing Are Due To Visit Taiwan Military.com: Meet the Vets Running for Congress, the Largest Group of Candidates Who Served in a Decade Aviation Week: USAF to Start Next-Generation Airlifter Work Next Year Air & Space Forces Magazine: KC-46 Flies Without Co-Pilot as AMC Explores Limited Aircrew Operations Air & Space Forces Magazine: No Space War College: USSF Partners With Johns Hopkins for PME Program Air & Space Forces Magazine: State Department Issues New Plan to Track Weapons to Ukraine Washington Post: 100 Dead In Two Mogadishu Bombings Australian Broadcasting: U.S. Air Force To Deploy Nuclear-Capable B-52 Bombers To Australia As Tensions With China Grow Agence France Presse: Former U.S. Marine Who 'Trained Chinese Crew' To Face Australian Court New York Times: Many Military UFO Reports Are Just Foreign Spying or Airborne Trash Washington Post: Capt. Kyle King Wins One For The Home Team At The Marine Corps Marathon 19fortyfive.com: Putin Will Send Anyone to Fight and Die in Ukraine Now 19fortyfive.com: Australia's Submarine Force: A Threat to China or Not? 19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Just Attacked the Russian Navy with a Drone Swarm 19fortyfive.com: Opinion: How Can the U.S. Military Innovate? Ask Isaac Asimov CalendarMONDAY | OCTOBER 31 10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "Nukes, Protests, and Iran," with State Department Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/31/carnegie-connects 10 a.m. 1521 16th St. N.W. — Institute of World Politics lecture: "The Intersection of Human Rights Crimes and National Security," with Heather Fischer, senior adviser for human rights crimes at Thomson Reuters Special Services https://www.iwp.edu/events/the-intersection-of-human-rights 2 p.m. 1744 R St. N.W. — German Marshall Fund of the United States discussion: "Germany's New Security Outlook: What Zeitenwende Means for the Transatlantic Partners," with Ekkehard Brose, former German permanent representative to NATO and president of the German Federal Academy for Security Policy, and Kristine Berzina, GMFUS senior fellow for security and defense policy https://www.gmfus.org/event/germanys-new-security-outlook TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 1 8:15 a.m. Hyatt Regency Crystal City — Naval Submarine League 2022 symposium on "Expanding the Reach of the Undersea Force," Nov. 1-2, with Adm. Frank Caldwell, director of Naval Reactors; Vice Adm. Bill Houston, commander of Submarine Force; and Adm. Christopher Grady, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff https://www.navalsubleague.org/events/annual-symposium 9 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: "Terminator on the battlefield: Emerging and evolving tech in the Russia-Ukraine war," with Margarita Konaev, deputy director of analysis and research and fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology; Gavin Wilde, senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Technology and International Affairs Program; Samuel Bendett, analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses's Russia Studies Program; Tom Stefanick, visiting fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology; and Jaclyn Kerr, nonresident fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution's Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology's Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative https://www.brookings.edu/events/terminator-on-the-battlefield 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: "CISA Strategic Plan for 2023-2025: The Future of U.S. Cyber and Infrastructure Security," with CISA Director Jen Easterly; CISA Chief Strategy Officer Valerie Cofield; Ron Green, executive vice president and chief security officer at Mastercard; and Grant Schneider, senior director of cybersecurity services at Venable https://www.csis.org/events/cisa-strategic-plan-2023-2025 12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: beginning at noon, on "The Pentagon, Climate Change, and War," with former Gov. Jerry Brown (D-CA); former Rep. John Tierney (D-ME) executive director of the Council for a Livable World; and Neta Crawford, nonresident fellow at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/event/the-pentagon-climate-change-and-war/ 1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: "Focused on Resilience: Future Proofing Government Networks At Scale," with Air Force CIO Lauren Barrett Knausenberger; Glenn Jones, director of the Navy's Information Technology Division; Kevin Walsh, director of information technology and cybersecurity at the Government Accountability Office; Ken Gonzalez, associate director of Verizon's Solutions Architects; and Jim Westdorp, chief technologist at Ciena Government Solutions https://www.govexec.com/feature/ciena-verizon-focused-resilience 2 p.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion: "The future of U.S. nuclear strategy: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review," with Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy Richard Johnson; Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance Alexandra Bell; and Cindy Lersten, director of the National Nuclear Security Administration's Office of Policy and Strategic Planning https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-future-of-us-nuclear-strategy 8 p.m. 1212 Cathedral St., Baltimore, Maryland — Stevenson University "Baltimore Speaker Series," with former CIA Director John Brennan https://baltimorespeakers.org/ | | | | "Another batch of Russian missiles hits Ukraine's critical infrastructure. Instead of fighting on the battlefield, Russia fights civilians. Don't justify these attacks by calling them a 'response.' Russia does this because it still has the missiles and the will to kill Ukrainians." | | Dmytro Kuleba, Ukrainian foreign minister |
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