The Horse Race: 2024 Hopefuls Nip at DeSantis's Heels

with Brittany Bernstein

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

2024 Hopefuls Nip at DeSantis's Heels

It's been another good week in 2024 polling for Ron DeSantis.

A new poll of likely Iowa Caucus–goers by Neighborhood Research found support for DeSantis skyrocketing compared to this time last year. Thirty-two percent of respondents listed DeSantis as their first choice, while 30 percent chose Trump. For context, Trump enjoyed a 21-point lead over DeSantis in June and a whopping 44-point lead last November in polls conducted by the same firm.

In an analysis of the data, Neighborhood Research's Rick Shaftan argued that "with support barely half what it was a year ago in a time when DeSantis's vote has nearly tripled, Trump becomes a severe underdog in the race."

Isaac Schorr has more on the Trump vs. DeSantis post-midterms polling:

DeSantis has led Trump in a number of state-level polls released since the 2022 midterm elections, including in another survey of Iowa Republicans sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which showed DeSantis with an eleven-point lead. Other Club for Growth polls suggest that DeSantis is preferred by GOP voters in Florida, Georgia, and New Hampshire. He also leads in Texas, according to a CWS Research.

Nationally, the picture is less clear. DeSantis outpaced Trump by seven points in a YouGov poll that was conducted right after the midterms, but other polls, including from Emerson University and Harris Insights and Analytics, indicate that Trump still holds a commanding lead.

While DeSantis has not formally announced an intention to run, Florida's top Republican state lawmakers say it would be a "good idea" to change a state law that would force the governor to resign if he did become the GOP nominee. Florida house speaker Paul Renner and senate president Kathleen Passidomo told Politico they are open to changing the requirement that a person seeking federal office must resign ahead of the election.

"If an individual who is Florida governor is running for president, I think he should be allowed to do it," Passidomo told reporters. "I really do. That's a big honor and a privilege, so it is a good idea."

With another week of good news for the Florida governor, DeSantis Derangement Syndrome is in full effect. Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin is trying to convince readers to "Beware, DeSantis is as much a threat to America as Trump."

Despite the recent DeSantis media frenzy, however, Maryland governor Larry Hogan (R.) said Friday he's not sure if the Florida Republican wants to take on Trump to be the GOP presidential nominee in 2024.

"He's certainly one of the voices. I'm not sure he's going to be a candidate." He noted DeSantis has not even been sworn in for his second term yet and he is a "young guy."

"Does he want to take on Trump? I'm not sure," said Hogan, whose view on the matter may be colored by the fact that he is also a potential 2024 contender.

"I know that most of the media is focused on that but again, six months is an eternity in politics and I can tell you in almost every race I've ever seen the guy that comes out of the box first that everybody's talking about two years out is almost never the nominee," he said.

For his part, Trump dominated the news this week, if not always for good.

Twitter CEO Elon Musk reinstated Trump's Twitter account over the weekend, nearly two years after the former president received a lifetime ban after the events of January 6, 2021. Trump, however, has said he plans to stay over on his own platform, Truth Social, and has not yet availed himself of the newly restored account.

In one sign that 2024 is heating up, attorney general Merrick Garland last week appointed a special counsel to oversee two criminal investigations into former president Donald Trump. Garland cited Trump's 2024 announcement and Biden's "stated intention" to run in 2024 as reasons for the special counsel, saying he has "concluded that it is in the public interest."

The special counsel, Jack Smith, will take over investigations surrounding the extent of Trump's involvement in the events leading to the January 6 Capitol riot and his alleged mishandling of sensitive government documents, Garland said at a press conference.

The appointment comes after Trump stirred rumors that he launched his third run last week in an effort to insulate himself from some eight different investigations he currently faces by becoming a presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, Biden and his family could be subject to their own investigations in the new year after Republicans take control of the house.

Nonetheless, former vice president Mike Pence — another potential 2024 candidate — said Garland's decision to appoint a special counsel is "very troubling."

"The timing of this decision — just a few short days after the president announced his intention to seek reelection, I think that the history of it, the facts that I am aware of behind it, I think it is very troubling." Pence told Fox News at the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) annual leadership conference.

Other potential 2024 hopefuls battled it out for the spotlight at the RJC conference over the weekend.

Former secretary of state Mike Pompeo began his RJC speech by joking about participating in future presidential debates and receiving his own insulting nickname from Trump. Afterwards, he caught up with Semafor. The outlet asked Pompeo what makes his potential 2024 path different from others.

He replied:

I don't think about that. I haven't decided whether I'm going to run, and my decision whether to run doesn't depend on what lane I'm in or who else gets in the race. I've been at this for decades. The central thesis of the conservative movement is deeply embedded in my DNA, and I care about it.

Ahead of his RJC speech, Pompeo tweeted: "We were told we'd get tired of winning. But I'm tired of losing. And so are most Republicans." The message was an apparent reference to Trump's comments on the campaign trail in 2016 and 2020 that the GOP and the U.S. would get "tired of winning" under his leadership.

Former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said in a short video before her own speech that if Biden enters into a new Iran deal, "the next president will shred it on her first day in office."

"A lot of people have asked if I'm going to run for president," Haley told the conference. "Now that the midterms are over, I'll look at it in a serious way, and I'll have more to say soon."

"I've won tough primaries, and tough general elections," she later added. "When people underestimate me, it's always fun. But I've never lost an election, and I'm not going to start now."

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie concluded his own conference speech saying: "It is time to stop whispering. . . . It's time to stop being afraid of any one person. . . . I am ready for that fight."

AROUND NR

• Andrew McCarthy offers an update on the eight different investigations centered on Trump.

• While we could have a "clean fight like Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan in 1976" if Republicans allowed 2024 to be a battle between Trump and DeSantis, instead we will have a crowded field where every new entrant lowers the bar for others, writes Michael Brendan Dougherty.

We're not even at Thanksgiving, and the minibus of GOP 2024 candidates is already starting to unload. Half a dozen have made noises about running since the election. They include former vice president Mike Pence, former governor of New Jersey Chris Christie, former CIA director and secretary of state Mike Pompeo, former governor of South Carolina and ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson, and governor of Maryland Larry Hogan.

Were you longing for those debate nights when the field was split into two groups of ten or more candidates making their cases for national leadership in 90 seconds or less? Well, that may be coming again. Every new entrant lowers the bar for others.

• Trump 2024 doesn't have Jeb Bush — and that could make all the difference, Rich Lowry says.

Bush is an honorable man and accomplished public servant who served, largely through circumstances beyond his control, as the ideal opponent for Trump in 2016. There's no Trump rival on the horizon in 2024 so neatly tailored to Trump's purposes, in part because Trump-catalyzed changes in the party now make a Jeb Bush–type figure impossible.

• Nate Hochman on how not to stop Trump:

But if they do want the party to move on from Trump, the Republican establishment will have to take care: Trump's populist appeal and the fierce loyalty he enjoys from a segment of the Republican base are predicated on his being the anti-establishment heavyweight. His critics may contend, with good reason, that a former president and de facto party leader is hardly "anti-establishment." But ultimately, it will be the perception among rank-and-file Republican voters that counts.

• Trump, who for several years has been a favorite of conservative talk-radio hosts, really needs talk radio now to help attack DeSantis in a way that he can't. But that support is no longer guaranteed, writes Peter Spiliakos.

Whatever their alleged principles or ideology, conservative talk-show hosts are terrified of alienating their audiences. That kept them in line during the Trump era, but it could work against Trump now. It is one thing to attack a candidate on behalf of Trump when that candidate is polling in the 20s. It is another thing entirely to attack a candidate on behalf of Trump when that candidate is polling in the 30s or 40s, and thus likely has many supporters among the host's listeners.