| SEND IN THE TANKS: After insisting for months that sending advanced U.S. M1A2 tanks to Ukraine was a really bad idea that would "burden" the Ukrainian army instead of bolstering it, the Biden administration appears about to execute a sudden about-face, although it's unclear if any of the Abrams tanks will arrive in advance of an expected spring offensive by Russian forces. Instead, the expected announcement that the United States will provide 30 of America's premier main battle tanks appears to be part of a long-term plan to transform the Ukraine military to one using NATO weapons rather than delivering an immediate infusion of combat firepower. The compromise plan, under which the U.S. would purchase new M1s from General Dynamics Land Systems using funds from the congressionally approved Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, would address the Pentagon's objections that the U.S. tanks require extensive training and complex logistical support while providing political cover for Germany to ship its Leopard 2 tanks, which can more easily be integrated into the battlefield, and unlock the export of Leopard's from other NATO countries as well. Today German Chancellor Olaf Scholz informed his Cabinet he has approved a plan to initially make 14 Leopard 2 battle tanks available to the Ukrainian armed forces. General Dynamics already has a $1.15 billion contract to deliver 250 M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams main battle tanks to Poland awarded last August, and with its production line running full tilt, some of those Abrams could in theory go to Ukraine first. US TO PROVIDE UKRAINE WITH ABRAMS TANKS: REPORTS HIGH MAINTENANCE EXPLAINED: In recent weeks, as the pressure built on the Biden administration, critics became increasingly skeptical of the argument that Ukrainian tankers would be unable to quickly master the Abrams and handle its requirements for jet fuel and spare parts, given the demonstrated ingenuity of the Ukrainian armed forces in employing other advanced U.S. systems. But the Pentagon argued the tanks are useless without the proper training and logistics support. "The M1 is a very capable battlefield platform, and it's also a very complex capability. And so, like anything that we're providing to Ukraine, we want to ensure that they have the ability to maintain it, sustain it, to train on it," said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, stressing he was not confirming that M1s would be sent. "I would predict you'll see the Leos [Leopards] on the battlefield within two to three months. The Abrams are probably going to be a lot longer," said retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, a former U.S. Army Europe commander, on CNN. "The Leo runs on a diesel tank. It's much easier to repair. It's much easier to maintain. The Abrams has, as you know, that multifuel turbine engine that has a lot of different moving parts." "I'd place those sometimes six to eight months out before they can establish not only the training capability for the crews but the unit capabilities as well as the establishment of the sustainment approach to the Abrams," said Hertling, who explained the training and operational challenges of the Abrams in a Twitter thread yesterday. "Those saying 'just give them the damned tanks!' have likely never seen the choreography to making this work on the battlefield," Hertling tweeted. "And those saying 'Ukraine has already incorporated other things, they can do this too!' I'd only say I've seen US units — at our training centers and in combat get just a few things wrong and it causes disaster and failure. Lethal tanks turn into pillboxes that don't move or shoot." GERMANY URGES ALLIES TO TRAIN UKRAINIANS ON LEOPARD TANKS US URGES SHIFT IN STRATEGY: The U.S. is urging Ukraine to shift its strategy to kneecap the Russians with battlefield maneuvers in the south, instead of tying down its forces in the valiant but increasingly fruitless defense of Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas, where losses on both sides are appallingly high, according to several reports. One account comes from Washington Post columnist Max Boot, who traveled with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and had a sitdown discussion with him after his meetings with 54 allies at Ramstein Air Base in Germany. "Although a staunch supporter of Ukraine, he was critical of the way the Ukrainian military is engaging in artillery duels with Russian forces. The Ukrainians are firing artillery rounds at twice the rate that the West is producing them," Boot wrote. "They need more work in terms of utilizing fires to shape the battlespace and then maneuvering," he quoted Austin as saying. "Austin sees an 'opportunity' — indeed, an imperative — for the Ukrainians to conduct a major offensive in late winter or early spring and wants to 'pull together a significant mechanized capability' to allow them to punch through Russia's fortified lines," according to Boot. "Austin told me that a 'realistic goal for this year' would be for the Ukrainians to cut the 'land bridge' between Crimea and Russia that Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces occupied last year," Boot wrote. "If that doesn't happen, he warns, we could see a 'frozen conflict,' with the Russians 'squatting on the territory they currently occupy.'" US CONCERNED 'PROVOCATEURS' UNDERMINING SWEDEN'S BID TO JOIN NATO Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: There have been hints that President Joe Biden may make the announcement of his decision to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine as early as today, although as of this morning, there is nothing on his public schedule other than his regular daily intelligence briefing and lunch with the vice president. The White House has a regular briefing with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre scheduled for 1:30 p.m. PREDICTABLE REACTION FROM RUSSIA: "If the United States decides to supply tanks, it will be impossible to justify such step using arguments about 'defensive weapons.' This would be another blatant provocation against the Russian Federation," said Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Anatoly Antonov on Twitter and Facebook. "If a decision to transfer to Kiev M1 Abrams is made, American tanks without any doubt will be destroyed as all other samples of NATO military equipment." Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov weighed in with a statement condemning the expected announcement. "Unfortunately more weapons from NATO bring more suffering for people in Ukraine. It also brings more attention to the continent but it cannot prevent Russia from reaching our goals." The statements were dismissed as empty bluster by former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, who said it is impossible to know how Russian President Vladimir Putin will respond. "Frankly, he has said and his people have said over and over they're going to do things if we send more weapons, and they've never done that," Taylor said on CNN. 90 SECONDS TILL DOOMSDAY: With someone in Russia threatening nuclear war every other day, the folks over at the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists have moved the hands of their symbolic "Doomsday Clock" to just 90 seconds before midnight, signaling their belief that the world is closer to global catastrophe than it has ever been. "Russia's thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons remind the world that escalation of the conflict — by accident, intention, or miscalculation — is a terrible risk. The possibility that the conflict could spin out of anyone's control remains high," the arms control advocacy groups said in a statement. "In Russian media, Russian government officials are continuing to drum up the thought that with the Russian people, they may have to use nuclear weapons," said retired Army Gen. Wes Clark, former NATO commander, earlier this week. "We know they've even gotten their nuclear artillery pieces moved forward into Ukraine. We don't know if that's preparation, routine, or something else." "We are sending a message that the situation is becoming more urgent," said Bulletin of Atomic Scientists President Rachel Bronson. "Crises are more likely to happen and have broader consequences and longer-standing effects." POMPEO'S KHASHOGGI DESCRIPTION UPSETS POST: The Washington Post is calling former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's description of murdered columnist Jamal Khashoggi "shocking and disappointing" and is accusing Pompeo of "outrageously misrepresenting" Khashoggi's life and work. In his just-released memoir, Never Give an Inch, Pompeo questioned Khashoggi's journalism credentials, calling him "a journalist to the extent that I and many other public figures are journalists. We sometimes get our writing published, but we also do other things." Far from a "Saudi Arabian Bob Woodward," Pompeo called Khashoggi "an activist who had supported the losing team in a recent fight for the throne in Saudi Arabia," who was "cozy with the terrorist-supporting Muslim Brotherhood." While describing Khashoggi's dismemberment at the hands of Saudi agents in Turkey as "outrageous, unacceptable, horrific, sad, despicable, evil, brutish, and, of course, unlawful," he said that "it wasn't surprising. … I'd seen enough of the Middle East to know that this kind of ruthlessness was all too routine in that part of the world." "Jamal was brutally murdered on the orders of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. His only offense was exposing corruption and oppression among those in power — work that good journalists around the world do every day," said Washington Post Publisher and CEO Fred Ryan in a statement. "It is shameful that Pompeo would spread vile falsehoods to dishonor a courageous man's life and service — and his commitment to principles Americans hold dear — as a ploy to sell books." Noting King Salman and the crown prince "vigorously denied" any knowledge or involvement in the murder, Pompeo wrote, "We were right to not give an inch. We could not afford to lose a critical American security ally ready to help reduce the threat of Iran. Stable and affordable energy prices depend on Saudi Arabia's output." WHITE HOUSE SAYS TRUMP AND POMPEO FAILED ON KHASHOGGI ACCOUNTABILITY The RundownWashington Examiner: US to provide Ukraine with Abrams tanks: Reports Washington Examiner: Germany urges allies to train Ukrainians on Leopard tanks Washington Examiner: US concerned 'provocateurs' undermining Sweden's bid to join NATO Washington Examiner: Ukrainian deputy defense minister resigns following corruption allegations Washington Examiner: White House says Trump and Pompeo failed on Khashoggi accountability Washington Examiner: McCaul demands answers from Blinken on classified documents at Penn Biden Center Washington Examiner: Former presidents coy on classified documents as senator suggests 'they're all sitting on stuff' Washington Examiner: 'Integrity matters': McCarthy rejects Schiff and Swalwell from Intel Committee Washington Examiner: Swalwell says McCarthy will 'regret' booting him off Intel: 'I'm not going to be quiet' Washington Examiner: McCarthy puzzled by GOP defectors who won't boot Ilhan Omar from committee Washington Examiner: Former Proud Boy testifies against five members in Jan. 6 seditious conspiracy trial Washington Examiner: Unvaccinated National Guard members excited 'about the opportunity to come back' Washington Examiner: Opinion: Turkey and Hungary should be suspended from NATO Wall Street Journal: Turkey Postpones Sweden-Finland Talks New York Times: Pentagon Will Increase Artillery Production Sixfold to Aid Ukraine 19fortyfive.com: Will M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 Tanks Win the War for Ukraine? 19fortyfive.com: Forget Tanks: Ukraine Could Get F-16 Fighters? 19fortyfive.com: My Military Experience In a Leopard 2 Tank 19fortyfive.com: Sweden's JAS-39: The Fighter Jet Ukraine Needs (But Won't Get)? Defense News: Colorado Dem Threatens to Hold Pentagon Nominees over Space Command HQ Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lockheed: F-35 Deliveries Still Frozen, Classified Programs Growing Fastest Defense News: DoD Delays Key F-35 Tests, Lowering Chance Of 2023 Production Decision Navy Times: GAO Concerned Columbia Program May Struggle To Stay On Schedule Defense One: Advanced F-16 Version Makes First Flight, Lockheed Says Breaking Defense: DIU Asks Industry for Help Getting Hypersonic Test Jet Closer to Lift Off Sydney Morning Herald: 'Huge Moment': Government Prepares To Unveil AUKUS Plan Washington Times: Polar Opposite: China's Growing Push In Antarctica Sparks Concern, Backlash Radio Free Asia: China Puts Missile Bases On Disputed South China Sea Islands, Analysts Say Air & Space Forces Magazine: What Concerns These Air Force Generals Most about Nuclear Modernization Right Now Military.com: West Point Grad Congressman Says He Has 'Zero Time' For Complaints About Woke Military, Focused On China USNI News: New Marine Training Plan Emphasizes Technology to Prepare for Modern Conflict Marine Corps Times: Sink Or Swim: More Rigorous Swimming Standards Coming For All Marines Air & Space Forces Magazine: MH-139 Production Decision Coming in Weeks; New Squadron Standing Up As Well Forbes: Raytheon Realigns Business Units To Reduce Customer Costs, Drive Innovation The Cipher Brief: Opinion: It's Time to Accept that North Korea is a Nuclear Power The Cipher Brief: Book Review: Untangling Pashtun History Deadline: 'Top Gun: Maverick' Lands Best Picture Nom & Five Others; No Tom Cruise Acting Nom But A Nod For Bringing Moviegoing Back From Pandemic CalendarWEDNESDAY | JANUARY 25 9 a.m. 400 Courthouse Sq., Alexandria, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Homeland Security Week Conference, with Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Troy Miller https://www.idga.org/events-homelandsecurityweek 9 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association Science and Engineering Technology Division breakfast discussion with Ben Petro, director of defense research operations in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering https://www.ndia.org/events 10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: "How Russia Handles Western Sanctions," with Polina Ivanova, foreign correspondent, Financial Times https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/25/carnegie-connects 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion: "Challenges to America's Weapons Supply Chain," with Lockheed Martin CEO James Taiclet https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/lockheed-martin-ceo 11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion on "DISA's (Defense Information Systems Agency) Priorities for 2023 and Beyond: An Indepth Look Through the Lens of Agency Leadership," with Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, DISA director; Stephen Wallace, chief technology officer of DISA; Marine Corps Sgt. Maj. Daniel Krause, DISA senior enlisted adviser; Don Means Jr., director of the DISA Operations and Infrastructure Center; Ryan McArthur, program manager at the Defense Department's Joint Warfighting Cloud Capability contract; and retired Air Force Command Sgt. David Klink, former DISA senior enlisted adviser https://afceadc.swoogo.com/disa23 4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event: "A Global Outlook with Former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper," in discussion with Seth Jones, senior vice president and director, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/global-outlook-former-secretary-defense-mark-esper THURSDAY | JANUARY 26 8 a.m. 201 Waterfront St. National Harbor, Maryland — American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics SciTech Forum: "Ignite the Future: Explore the Frontiers of Aerospace," with Ellen Ebner, director of sustainable technologies, sustainability, and future mobility at Boeing; Jeff Shaknaitis, customer sustainability leader at GE Aviation; and Amanda Simpson, vice president of research and technology at Airbus Americas, participate in a discussion on "Sustainability Leadership: Addressing Industry Developments in Aviation" https://www.aiaa.org/SciTech/registration 9:30 a.m. 406 Dirksen — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing: "China's Military Diplomacy and Overseas Security Activities," with Phillip Saunders, director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies; Kristen Gunness, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation; Richard Weitz, senior fellow and director of the Center for Political-Military Analysis at the Hudson Institute; Jeffrey Becker, Research Program director of the Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Program at the Center for Naval Analyses; Melodie Ha, management analyst in the Defense Department; April Herlevi, senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses; and Meia Nouwens, research fellow for Chinese defense policy and military modernization at the International Institute for Strategic Studies https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/chinas-military-diplomacy-and-overseas-security-activities 9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book discussion: The Fragile Balance of Terror: Deterrence in the Nuclear Age, with co-editor Scott Sagan, senior fellow at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation; Ankit Panda, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nuclear Policy Program; and Nicholas Miller, associate professor of government at Dartmouth University https://www.csis.org/events/book-event-fragile-balance 10:30 a.m. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Albanian Defense Minister Niko Pelesh at the Pentagon 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and the Global Europe Program discussion: "Silicon Lifeline: Western Electronics at the Heart of Russia's War Machine," with James Byrne, director of open-source intelligence and analysis at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies; Gary Somerville, research fellow for open-source intelligence and analysis at the Royal United Services Institute; and Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/silicon-lifeline 1:30 p.m. — Wilson Center Polar Institute virtual discussion: "Achieving Security in the Arctic: the Role of DHS and its Components," with Deputy Homeland Security Secretary John Tien; Vice Adm. Peter Gautier, deputy commandant for operations at the Coast Guard; Willie Nunn, Region 10 administrator for the Federal Emergency Management Agency; Robert Hammer, special agent in charge of homeland security investigations at the Homeland Security Department; and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and Fisheries David Balton https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/achieving-security-arctic MONDAY | JANUARY 30 7 p.m. — Stimson Center virtual discussion: "A South Korean Nuclear Program? Assessing the Risks," with Siegfried Hecker, distinguished professor of practice, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Robert Gallucci, distinguished professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; Jamie Kwong, fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Jenny Town, senior fellow, Stimson Center, and director, 38 North https://www.stimson.org/event/a-south-korean-nuclear-program WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1 9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book discussion: No Limits: The Inside Story of China's War with the West, with author Andrew Small. Register at sophie.williams@thepresidency.org | | | | "The implication is obvious: The United States and its allies need to pull out all the stops to arm Ukraine now, before it's too late." | | Replace Washington Post columnist Max Boot, after Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told him Ukraine needs to cut the land bridge between Crimea and Russia this year or face a frozen conflict with the Russians squatting on the territory they occupy |
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