| A FLAT 'NO': It's the same underlying question: Is the United States willing to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to defeat Russia this year or just enough not to lose? The debate has shifted from main battle tanks to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's urgent pleas for modern fighter aircraft, specifically U.S. F-16s, of which the U.S. Air Force has nearly 50 C/D models that are being retired. Asked point-blank yesterday as he stepped off Marine One on return to the White House if the U.S. will provide F-16s to Ukraine, President Joe Biden gave a simple "no." But Ukraine is not giving up. As Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said of the German refusal to send tanks to Ukraine: "It's always a similar pattern: First they say 'no,' then they fiercely defend their decision, only to say 'yes' in the end." "We need decisions. We would like to involve as many countries as possible in the tank coalition to have success on the battlefield," said Zelensky yesterday after meeting with Denmark's prime minister in the southern port city of Odesa. "Because sometimes good decisions, when slowed down, end up being weak." BIDEN SAYS US WON'T PROVIDE UKRAINE WITH FIGHTER JETS A LOT OF THIS COULD HAVE BEEN DONE SOONER: While the Biden administration generally gets high marks from former commanders for building and holding together a coalition of countries supporting Ukraine with money and weapons, the one constant criticism is that the assistance is too slow in arriving. "A lot of this could have been done sooner. And then, you know, they're talking about it potentially being six months, a year or more before the Abrams tanks get there," said Robert Gates, former Bush and Obama administration defense secretary, on NBC. "I tend to think we have been a little bit overly risk averse, especially when it came to the tanks," said retired Gen. David Petraeus, former commander of the U.S. Central Command, in a Washington Post virtual chat yesterday. "At some point, we have to give the Ukrainians a longer-range precision munition for the HIMARS, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. … And at some point, I think F-16s probably are going to begin to be discussed." Petraeus argued that fear of Russian escalation, in particular its veiled nuclear threats, are overblown. "I don't think … Russia wants to pick a fight with a NATO country. I think that they have recognized that use of tactical nuclear weapons would backfire on them. So I'm not sure what their options are. You know, they make these threats. But in every case, they have proven to be empty. And I think that that will continue to be the case." US HAS BEEN 'RISK AVERSE' IN MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE, PETRAEUS SAYS ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN COMING MONTHS LIKELY: "Western, Ukrainian, and Russian sources continue to indicate that Russia is preparing for an imminent offensive," said the latest assessment from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. "An offensive in the coming months is the most likely course of action. The ISW pointed to comments from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during his visit to South Korea over the weekend, in which he warned all signs point to Russia preparing for more war. "They are actively acquiring new weapons, more ammunition, ramping up their own production, but also acquiring more weapons from other authoritarian states like Iran and North Korea," Stoltenberg said. "We don't see any signs that President Putin and rulers in Moscow are preparing for peace. We see the opposite. We see that they are preparing for more war, that they are mobilizing more soldiers, more than 200,000, and potentially even more than that." Stoltenberg urged South Korea to "step up" and provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. "If you believe in freedom, if you believe in democracy, if you don't want autocracy and tyranny to win, then they need weapons." Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Seoul today where at a joint press conference with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, Lee said South Korea "shares the sentiment on the need for international support" for Ukraine and is giving the matter "our close attention." NATO CHIEF WARNS UKRAINE COULD LOSE WAR IF 'URGENT NEED' FOR WEAPONS GOES UNMET Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Austin is wrapping up his visit to South Korea, where he signed a joint statement condemning North Korea for its "provocations and violations," with "missile launches and drone incursions" that violate U.S. Security Council resolutions. The statement committed the U.S. to "further expand and bolster the level and scale of this year's combined exercises and training." "We've deployed 5th generation aircraft F-22s, F-35s, also deployed a carrier strike group to visit the peninsula," said Austin. "You can look for more [of] that kind of activity going forward, but in addition to that, you can look for deeper consultation between our two countries. We will do a number of tabletop exercises to ensure that we're seeing things eye to eye … to make sure that no stone is left unturned." ONE WAGNER DEFECTOR'S STORY: A man identified as a former fighter for the Wagner Group in Ukraine gave an interview with CNN that aired last night in which he gave an account of poorly trained and equipped convicts being used as cannon fodder and the execution of those who refuse to fight or attempt to escape. The self-described defector was identified as Andrei Medvedev, a former convict who crossed into Norway seeking asylum. He told CNN's Anderson Cooper he witnessed the executions. "Such cases happen very often there. There was a question of how to persuade new recruits who arrived at the front lines and saw what is going on there and decided they don't want to fight, to still go ahead and fight. They would round up those who did not want to fight and shoot them in front of the newcomers to develop their self-preservation instinct," Medvedev said. "I planned to leave Wagner for a while, but I didn't have the opportunity. I was afraid I will be captured and shot as a traitor," he said of his decision to leave the mercenary force run by Yevgeny Prigozhin. "I am ready for serious action, but I also want to live. By the end, I knew they won't let me go. I will return as part of the dead or the wounded. It was time to make a radical decision. If it wasn't for my guys, my comrades, I would have been buried at some training ground." KREMLIN DENIES BORIS JOHNSON'S CLAIM OF PUTIN THREATENING MISSILE STRIKE INDUSTRY WATCH: Northrop Grumman's board of directors has elected Stephen O'Bryan corporate vice president and global business development officer, effective Feb. 6. He will report to Kathy Warden, chairwoman, CEO, and president, and be responsible for leading the business development organization and enabling the company's international growth strategy. O'Bryan will succeed David Perry, who has announced his intent to retire effective March 31. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The RundownWashington Examiner: Biden says US won't provide Ukraine with fighter jets Washington Examiner: NATO chief warns Ukraine could lose war if 'urgent need' for weapons goes unmet Washington Examiner: NATO's Stoltenberg warns Russia is 'preparing for more war' Washington Examiner: US has been 'risk averse' in military aid to Ukraine, Petraeus says Washington Examiner: Ukraine's Zelensky wants the West to deliver him weapons faster Washington Examiner: Kremlin denies Boris Johnson's claim of Putin threatening missile strike Washington Examiner: Netanyahu hints at displeasure with Russia's military ties to Iran Washington Examiner: Gov. Greg Abbott hires Border Patrol agent as Texas border czar AP: Talk of fighter jets for Kyiv puts strains on Western unity AP: 5 Ukrainian civilians killed as warring sides mull next move New York Times: NATO's Chief Hints That South Korea Should Consider Military Aid For Ukraine, A Move Seoul Has Resisted. Stars and Stripes: Poll Shows Growing Public Support For A Stronger Japanese Defense Wall Street Journal: Israeli Drone Strike Said To Be Broader Than Iran's Account Washington Post: U.S. military poised to secure new access to key Philippine bases 19fortyfive.com: Putin Threatened Missile Strike Against UK Before Ukraine Invasion 19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Going to Be Mad: Will France Send Fighter Jets to Ukraine? Defense News: Turkey Frustrates Finland's And Sweden's NATO Bids 19fortyfive.com: It Might Be Time to Kick Turkey Out of NATO Air & Space Forces Magazine: Photos: US-Israel Conclude Massive Exercise with F-35s, B-52s, and More Air & Space Forces Magazine: Saltzman: 'We're in a Race to Build Combat Credibility Before We're Put to the Test' USNI News: Bath Irons Works Delivers Destroyer Carl M. Levin to Navy National Defense Magazine: Navy's First 'Extra' Large Unmanned Sub To Go Underwater 'Very Soon' The Drive: DARPA's Hypersonic Cruise Missile Flew Its Final Test, Follow-On To Come Air & Space Forces Magazine: Hypersonic Scramjet Missile HAWC Successfully Tested for Last Time Defense One: Defense Business Brief: Hyten Sets Up Shop in the Private Sector Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force ROTC Unveils Sweeping New Scholarship for Older Cadets Military Times: New Bill Pushes To Ensure South Carolina Marine Base Stays Open Military.com: 'That Pisses Me Off': Congressman to Lead Panel on Struggles for Troops Focusing on Pay, Food Insecurity Marine Corps Times: All Marines Can Now Take Nearly 3 Months Of Parental Leave New York Times: The Navy's Dolphins Have a Few Things to Tell Us About Aging CalendarTUESDAY | JANUARY 31 8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Assessing the Future Trajectory of China-Japan Relations," with Rumi Aoyama, director of the Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies; Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project; Christopher Johnstone, CSIS Japan chairman; and Jude Blanchette, CSIS China studies chairman https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-future-trajectory-china-japan-relations 9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "The real impact of Western sanctions on Russia," with Vladimir Milov, vice president of international advocacy at the Free Russia Foundation; Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute for International Finance; and Leonid Volkov, head of the Network of Regional Headquarters for Alexei Navalny https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-real-impact-of-western-sanctions-on-russia/ 11 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: "A Tale of Two Winters: How Winter is Shaping the War in Ukraine," with Lesia Vasylenko, member of the Ukrainian Parliament; Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War; Jonathan Katz, director of democracy initiatives at GMFUS; and Sudha David-Wilp, director of the GMFUS Berlin office https://www.gmfus.org/event/tale-two-winters 12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: "Moving Beyond Tragedy; Bucha's Mayor and Deputy Mayor Look to the Future," with Bucha, Ukraine, Mayor Anatolii Fedoruk; Bucha, Ukraine, Deputy Mayor Mykhailyna Skoryk-Shkarivska; and Peter Rough, director of the Hudson Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/moving-beyond-tragedy 4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: "A New Atlanticism for a Transitory International Order?" with Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events 6 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: "Holding Russia Liable for Invading Ukraine — Can It Be Done?" with Chiara Giorgetti, professor of law at the University of Richmond School of Law, and Brian Egan, partner at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom and former legal adviser at the State Department https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1 9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book discussion: No Limits: The Inside Story of China's War with the West, with author Andrew Small. Register at sophie.williams@thepresidency.org 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative discussion: "Responding to the Ukrainian Refugee Plight: The EU and US Perspectives," with Rep. Gerald Connolly (D-VA), president emeritus of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration Julieta Valls Noyes; Michael Koehler, acting director-general for European civil protection and humanitarian aid operations at the European Commission; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center's Global Europe Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/responding-ukrainian-refugee-plight 10:45 a.m. — Defense Innovation Board meeting, chaired by Michael Bloomberg. Public portion livestreamed on defense.gov 11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "Sustaining support to Ukraine," with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/conversation-with-boris-johnson 1 p.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: "Ukraine, China, and the International World Order," with former Defense Secretary Robert Gates https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live 4 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: "Putin's War or Russia's War?" with Leonid Volkov, chief of staff for Alexei Navalny; and Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://calendar.gwu.edu/putins-war-or-russias-war THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 2 10:30 a.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. discussion: "The Foreign Policy of Technology." with U.S. Ambassador for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick; David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Karen Kornbluh, director and senior fellow at the GMFUS's Digital Innovation and Democracy Initiative and former deputy chief of staff at the Treasury Department https://www.gmfus.org/event/foreign-policy-technology-ambassador-nate-fick 1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: "One Year On: Germany's Foreign Policy Shift and the War in Ukraine," with German Ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Steven Sokol, president of the American Council on Germany; Dan Baer, director of the CEIP Europe Program; and Sophia Besch, fellow at CEIP's Europe Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/02/one-year-on-germany-s-foreign-policy-shift FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3 12 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: "NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and Efforts to Reduce Risk and Build Public Trust in Artificial Intelligence," with Elham Tabassi, chief of staff of the NIST Information Technology Laboratory https://calendar.gwu.edu/nist-and-efforts-reduce-risk-and-build-public-trust-ai WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 8 6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army Coffee Series in-person event featuring Gen. James Rainey, commanding general, U.S. Army Futures Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-rainey MONDAY | FEBRUARY 13 TBA Brussels, Belgium — Press Conference by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg ahead of a two-day meeting of defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news 9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Stimson Center virtual and in-person discussion: "The End of History? Global Implications of the War in Ukraine" https://www.stimson.org/event/the-end-of-history TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 14 TBA Brussels, Belgium — Meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group followed by the beginning of a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO Headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news | | | | "The Ukrainians have shown incredible innovativeness, initiative, skill. You know, they're called the ultimate MacGyvers. They can make anything work. They can adapt to a HARM missile from an F-16 and put it on a MiG-29." | | Retired Gen. David Petraeus, in a Washington Post interview on Monday |
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