| 'MY GUT TELLS ME WE WILL FIGHT IN 2025': A two-page memo dated Feb. 1 from the four-star head of Air Mobility Command predicting war between the United States and China within two years ricocheted around the internet over the weekend, after being reported by NBC News on Friday. In the memo, Gen. Michael Minihan, orders his troops to prepare for war, including scheduling time with the base legal office to get their personal affairs in order. "I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025," Minihan wrote in his first paragraph. "[Chinese President Xi Jinping] secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan's presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States' presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025." Minihan, who oversees the fleet of Air Force transport and refueling aircraft, directed his airmen to "go faster. ... If you are comfortable with your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk." "All AMC aligned personnel with weapons qualifications will fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head," he ordered. All commanders are ordered to submit a report on their "accomplishments preparing for the China fight" by the end of February. "I alone own the pen on these orders, My expectations are high and these orders are not up for negotiation. Follow them," he wrote. AIR FORCE GENERAL WARNS TROOPS OF WAR WITH CHINA BY 2025, DISAGREEING WITH PENTAGON ASSESSMENT 'COWBOY AGGRESSION': While the Pentagon has foot-stomped the theme that China is America's "pacing threat" and that the U.S. and its allies must build up forces in the region to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a defense official, speaking on background, said the tone of Minihan's comments "are not representative of the department's view on China." On Fox News Sunday, the only regular Sunday show to discuss the Minihan memo, House Armed Services ranking member Adam Smith (D-WA) cautioned against creating a narrative that war with China is inevitable. "It's not only not inevitable, it is highly unlikely," said Smith. "We have a very dangerous situation in China, but I think generals need to be very cautious about saying we're going to war. …Their job is to prepare for a wide range of eventualities." "We have to be in a position to deter China," he said. "That's a very dangerous situation that we need to be prepared for, but I'm fully confident that we can avoid that conflict if we take the right approach." Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey accused Minihan of "cowboy aggression" and "bad judgment," tweeting, "This General officer needs to be placed on terminal leave." McCAUL: 'I THINK HE'S RIGHT': Republicans were less concerned about whether Minihan was being overly alarmist, instead focusing on the need to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. "I hope he's wrong as well. I think he's right though, unfortunately," House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mike McCaul (R-TX) told Fox News's Shannon Bream. "Wait, an actual war?" she interjected. "Well, I think China's looking at reunification of Taiwan, right?" McCaul replied, arguing that if China can't achieve its goals by influencing Taiwan's presidential elections next year, its next option could well be the use of military force. "We have to be prepared for this. And it could happen I think as long as Biden is in office, projecting weakness, as he did with Afghanistan that led to Putin invading Ukraine, that the odds are very high we could see a conflict with China and Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific," McCaul said. Other Republicans also endorsed the dire warning from Minihan. "Having just returned from Taiwan, I share and applaud General Minihan's urgency about the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses both to Taiwan and the world," tweeted Sen. Todd Young (R-IN). "The DOD and our diplomatic community must be ready to address China's aggression." "Gen. Mike Minihan has the correct mentality — our bureaucracy needs to catch up," tweeted Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR). "The U.S. military must be ready and able to respond at anytime to growing Chinese aggression." TOP DEMOCRATIC, GOP LAWMAKERS SPLIT ON AIR FORCE GENERAL'S FORECAST OF A COMING WAR WITH CHINA Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Seoul, South Korea, this morning (late Monday evening there) for high-level meetings with President Yoon Suk Yeol and South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup. The visit comes as Yoon recently floated the idea that South Korea may have to develop its own nuclear arsenal to deter the growing threat from North Korea's Kim Jong Un, who has made increasingly bellicose statements about building up the North's nuclear strike capability. "I look forward to meeting my counterpart and other senior government leaders to chart an ambitious path forward to advance our shared security priorities in the Indo-Pacific," Austin said on Twitter. It's Austin's sixth official visit to the region, a trip that will also take him to the Philippines to meet with recently elected President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. STOLTENBERG: N. KOREA SUPPORTING RUSSIA: Austin's arrival in Seoul coincides with the departure of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who met with Yoon over the weekend. In a speech to students, Stoltenberg said, "What happens in Europe matters to the Indo-Pacific, and what happens in Asia matters to NATO," and in a meeting with Foreign Minister Park Jin, Stoltenberg condemned North Korea's nuclear program and its support for Russia's war in Ukraine. "We also know that North Korea is providing military support to the Russian war efforts with rockets and missiles, and this just highlights how we are interconnected," he said. BLINKEN TO MIDDLE EAST: At the same time, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Jerusalem, the second stop on a three-day trip that began with a stop in Egypt and will conclude with a visit to the West Bank. Blinken meets today with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his counterpart, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen, and will consult "on a range of global and regional priorities," according to the State Department, "including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Iran, Israeli-Palestinian relations and preserving the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the protection of human rights and democratic values." Blinken's visit to Israel comes as violence has flared with a Palestinian Jewish settlement in east Jerusalem that killed seven people and an Israeli raid in the West Bank city of Jenin last week that killed 10 people. "We will be encouraging the parties to take steps to calm things down," Blinken told reporters at a news conference in Cairo before departing for Israel. CIA DIRECTOR BURNS TRAVELS TO ISRAEL AND WEST BANK AS VIOLENCE GROWS ISW: DELAYS PREVENT UKRAINE FROM PRESSING ADVANTAGE: So far this winter, Ukraine has largely succeeded in blunting Russia faltering counteroffensive, but the long delays in getting fresh armaments from the West have squandered its battlefield advantage, according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War. "Western reluctance to begin supplying Ukraine with higher-end Western weapons systems, particularly tanks, long-range strike systems, and air-defense systems, has limited Ukraine's ability to initiate and continue large-scale counter-offensive operations," the ISW said. "Delays in the provision to Ukraine of Western long-range fires systems, advanced air defense systems, and tanks have limited Ukraine's ability to take advantage of opportunities for larger counter-offensive operations presented by flaws and failures in Russian military operations." "The speed of supply has been and will be one of the key factors in this war," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address. "Russia hopes to drag out the war, to exhaust our forces. So we have to make time our weapon. We must speed up the events, speed up the supply and opening of new necessary weaponry options for Ukraine." POLAND TO ADD 60 TANKS TO LATEST ROUND OF AID TO UKRAINE The RundownWashington Examiner: US tanks will take 'many months' to reach Ukraine, White House says Washington Examiner: The West is losing weapons production race to Russia, NATO ally says Washington Examiner: Poland to add 60 tanks to latest round of aid to Ukraine Washington Examiner: Ilhan Omar reveals some GOPs have privately said they will not vote to remove her from committee Washington Examiner: Swalwell accuses McCarthy of 'political abuse' for removal from Intel committee Washington Examiner: Air Force general warns troops of war with China by 2025, disagreeing with Pentagon assessment Washington Examiner: Top Democratic, GOP lawmakers split on Air Force general's forecast of a coming war with China Washington Examiner: West Point grad in Congress urges GOP to stop 'woke' accusations against military Washington Examiner: CIA Director Burns travels to Israel and West Bank as violence grows Washington Examiner: Iranian government contracted Russian mobsters to assassinate Masih Alinejad New York Times: Battling Over Villages In East As Russia Strives To Encircle Bakhmut 19fortyfive.com: Thanks for the M1 Abrams Tanks, But Ukraine Wants F-16 Fighters Politico: At the Pentagon, Push to Send F-16s to Ukraine Picks Up Steam AP: How to Fix a Howitzer: US Offers Help Line to Ukraine Troops New York Times: Mossad Conducted Drone Attack on Iran, Intelligence Officials Say Business Insider: For The 2nd Year In A Row, Iran Is Sailing Its Biggest Warship Around The World To Show Off Its Growing Navy Reuters: In Beijing's Backyard, U.S. Demonstrates Its Military Might Wall Street Journal: Chinese Nuclear Lab Used U.S. Chips After Ban The Hill: Top Armed Services Democrat: U.S. Military Readiness A 'Huge Problem' Air & Space Forces Magazine: New KC-46 Deficiency Revealed as Contract Is Signed for 15 More Tankers Naval Technology: U.S. Navy Takes Delivery Of Future USS Carl M Levin (DDG 120) Air & Space Forces Magazine: Hypersonic ARRW Missile Criticized for Lack of Test Plan Air & Space Forces Magazine: Report: Despite Losses in Ukraine, Russia Remains a Threat in the Arctic Defense News: U.S. Navy Suspends Work At Four West Coast Dry Docks Over Seismic Risks AP: Nuclear Strike Chief Seeks Cancer Review of Missile Crews Space News: L3Harris 'Optimistic' Aerojet Rocketdyne Acquisition Will Close in 2023 19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Should Space Force Look at the Moon or the Earth? Stars and Stripes: Let It Grow: Sailors, Marines Disgruntled By Beard Ban Find Favorable Reception To Challenges Wall Street Journal: Editorial: Telling the Truth About War Over Taiwan CalendarMONDAY | JANUARY 30 10 a.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: "New Western Aid for the War in Ukraine and Russian Military Shake-up," with retired Gen. David Petraeus, former CIA Director, partner at KKR, and chairman of the KKR Global Institute https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live 10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: "Troubled Water — Navigating the Black Sea," with Iulian Chifu, state counselor and adviser to the Romanian prime minister; former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Robert Cekuta, president of Hudson Partners; Yoruk Isik, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute; and Alina Inayeh, adviser to the GMFUS president https://www.gmfus.org/event/troubled-water-navigating-black-sea 12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: "Blinken's Trip to Beijing: U.S.-China Relations at a Crossroads," with Kendra Schaefer, partner at Trivium China; Michael Davidson, assistant professor at the University of California, San Diego; Michael Swaine, senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute's East Asia Program; and Jake Werner, research fellow at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/event/blinkens-trip-to-beijing 12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: "The Russian War in Ukraine: What Was Accomplished in Minsk 2014-2022 and Why Did the Peace Process Ultimately Fail?" with Wolfgang Sporrer, member of the adjunct faculty at the Hertie School https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events 12:30 p.m. 300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute and Ukraine Friends discussion: "Bucha After Russian Occupation," with Bucha, Ukraine, Mayor Anatolii Fedoruk; Bucha, Ukraine, Deputy Mayor Mykhailyna Skoryk-Shkariska; former USAID Administrator Mark Green, president, director, and CEO of the Wilson Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center's Global Europe Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/bucha-after-russia 1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual briefing: "Readying Defense for the Future of Work," with James Sumpter, chief enterprise architect at the Air Force Research Laboratory; Brian Lau, HP future of work product manager; and Stephen Pieraldi, HP technologist https://events.govexec.com/defense-future-of-work 4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies conference call briefing: "Previewing Secretary Blinken's China Visit," with Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project; Jude Blanchette, CSIS chairman in China studies; and Scott Kennedy, CSIS chairman in Chinese business and economics. RSVP required to Paige Montfort at pmontfort@csis.org 5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics lecture: "Lessons Learned From the Russo-Ukraine War and How They Can be Applied to a U.S. China Conflict," with Robert Roseberry, IWP Masters candidate https://www.iwp.edu/events/lessons-learned 7 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: "A South Korean Nuclear Program? Assessing the Risks," with Siegfried Hecker, distinguished professor of practice, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies; Robert Gallucci, distinguished professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; Jamie Kwong, fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Jenny Town, senior fellow, Stimson Center, and director, 38 North https://www.stimson.org/event/a-south-korean-nuclear-program TUESDAY | JANUARY 31 8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Assessing the Future Trajectory of China-Japan Relations," with Rumi Aoyama, director of the Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies; Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project; Christopher Johnstone, CSIS Japan chairman; and Jude Blanchette, CSIS China studies chairman https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-future-trajectory-china-japan-relations 9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "The real impact of Western sanctions on Russia," with Vladimir Milov, vice president of international advocacy at the Free Russia Foundation; Elina Ribakova, deputy chief economist of the Institute for International Finance; and Leonid Volkov, head of the Network of Regional Headquarters for Alexei Navalny https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-real-impact-of-western-sanctions-on-russia/ 11 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: "A Tale of Two Winters: How Winter is Shaping the War in Ukraine," with Lesia Vasylenko, member of the Ukrainian Parliament; Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War; Jonathan Katz, director of democracy initiatives at GMFUS; and Sudha David-Wilp, director of the GMFUS Berlin office https://www.gmfus.org/event/tale-two-winters 12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: "Moving Beyond Tragedy; Bucha's Mayor and Deputy Mayor Look to the Future," with Bucha, Ukraine, Mayor Anatolii Fedoruk; Bucha, Ukraine, Deputy Mayor Mykhailyna Skoryk-Shkarivska; and Peter Rough, director of the Hudson Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/moving-beyond-tragedy 4:30 p.m. 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: "A New Atlanticism for a Transitory International Order?" with Heather Conley, president of the German Marshall Fund https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events 6 p.m. 1717 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: "Holding Russia Liable for Invading Ukraine — Can It Be Done?" with Chiara Giorgetti, professor of law at the University of Richmond School of Law, and Brian Egan, partner at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom and former legal adviser at the State Department https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1 9 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book discussion: No Limits: The Inside Story of China's War with the West, with author Andrew Small. Register at sophie.williams@thepresidency.org 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Refugee and Forced Displacement Initiative discussion: "Responding to the Ukrainian Refugee Plight: The EU and US Perspectives," with Rep. Gerald Connolly (D-VA), president emeritus of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly; Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration Julieta Valls Noyes; Michael Koehler, acting director-general for European civil protection and humanitarian aid operations at the European Commission; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe Robin Quinville, director of the Wilson Center's Global Europe Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/responding-ukrainian-refugee-plight 10:45 a.m. — Defense Innovation Board meeting, chaired by Michael Bloomberg. Public portion livestreamed on defense.gov 11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "Sustaining support to Ukraine," with former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/conversation-with-boris-johnson 1 p.m. — Washington Post live virtual discussion: "Ukraine, China, and the International World Order," with former Defense Secretary Robert Gates https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live 4 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion: "Putin's War or Russia's War?" with Leonid Volkov, chief of staff for Alexei Navalny; and Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis https://calendar.gwu.edu/putins-war-or-russias-war THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 2 10:30 a.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. discussion: "The Foreign Policy of Technology." with U.S. Ambassador for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick; David Ignatius, columnist at the Washington Post; and former U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Karen Kornbluh, director and senior fellow at the GMFUS's Digital Innovation and Democracy Initiative and former deputy chief of staff at the Treasury Department https://www.gmfus.org/event/foreign-policy-technology-ambassador-nate-fick 1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: "One Year On: Germany's Foreign Policy Shift and the War in Ukraine," with German Ambassador to the U.S. Emily Haber; Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Steven Sokol, president of the American Council on Germany; Dan Baer, director of the CEIP Europe Program; and Sophia Besch, fellow at CEIP's Europe Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/02/one-year-on-germany-s-foreign-policy-shift FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 3 12 p.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual discussion: "NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and Efforts to Reduce Risk and Build Public Trust in Artificial Intelligence," with Elham Tabassi, chief of staff of the NIST Information Technology Laboratory https://calendar.gwu.edu/nist-and-efforts-reduce-risk-and-build-public-trust-ai | | | | "Lethality matters most. When you can kill your enemy, every part of your life is better. Your food tastes better. Your marriage is stronger." | | Gen. Mike Minihan, Air Mobility Command commander, speaking at the Air & Space Forces Association Air Space & Cyber Conference last year, as quoted by Task & Purpose |
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