| ONE YEAR LATER: A year ago, the world vastly overestimated the combat effectiveness of the Russian military while vastly underestimating the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people and their indefatigable determination to preserve freedom and democracy whatever the cost. As Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of choice enters its second year, the big question is not about Ukraine's will to fight, but whether the coalition of Western allies led by the United States will hold together "as long as it takes" and continue the flow of high-tech weaponry crucial to dealing Russia a lasting defeat on the battlefields of eastern and southern Ukraine. In an anniversary video address to his people, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed, "One way or another, we will liberate all our lands." Zelensky called the past 365 days a year of "resilience, bravery, pain, hope, endurance, unity," but most of all, a "furious year of invincibility." "We withstand all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, blackouts, and cold," he said. "We endured. We were not defeated. And we will do everything to gain victory this year!" THE COLD HARD TRUTH: UKRAINE COULD LOSE TO PUTIN IF IT CAN'T WIN THIS YEAR 'A YEAR TOO LONG': The White House announced yet another aid package for Ukraine this morning — another $2 billion worth of materiel, including drones and counter-drone systems, but mostly ammunition for 155mm artillery systems and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers that Ukraine has been burning through faster than it can be replaced. Despite almost weekly announcements of more U.S. weapons and ammunition being sent or pledged for Ukraine — during his visit to Kyiv Monday, President Joe Biden announced more Javelin anti-tank missiles and surveillance radars — the Republican leaders of the three key House committees say it's not enough. "President Biden needs to stop dragging his feet on providing the lethal aid necessary to end this war. Continued half-measures by the Biden administration will only drive up the cost of this war in lives and dollars," said the chairmen of the House Foreign Affairs, Armed Services, and Intelligence committees, Reps. Michael McCaul (R-TX), Mike Rogers (R-AL), and Mike Turner (R-OH), in a joint statement. "Putin's unprovoked, full-scale invasion of Ukraine has lasted a year too long," the lawmakers said. "The gruesome Russian war crimes and atrocities must end." While there are some Republican House members calling for an end to Ukraine funding, they are in the distinct minority, says Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS). "I think there is strong support among the Republican conference," Wicker told CNN this week. "I'd say 90% support giving Ukraine the tools it needs to win the war. We're not asking our troops to go over there and fight. They're doing the dirty work." PENTAGON ANNOUNCES $2 BILLION MILITARY AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE ON ANNIVERSARY OF WAR SEND IN THE PLANES: Wicker is among the many in Congress scratching their heads over the Biden administration's reluctance to provide Ukraine with an air force when modern fighter jets such as American F-16s could help turn the tide of battle. "There's always an excuse. You know, 'they're used to flying MiGs over there, and there will be a training gap.' Well, we've had a lot of time for training. And if there's more training that needs to be done, we need to start it this afternoon," Wicker said. In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) teamed up to plead for a massive increase in the number and speed that weapons are sent to Ukraine. "There is no conceivable reason to delay getting weapons to Ukraine. Those machines — Abrams, Challengers and Leopard tanks — are needed to make a difference now, not next year. Training Ukrainian fighters to fly advanced NATO jets is admirable, but why are we doing it before we've even decided to give them the planes? Let's cut to the chase and give them the planes, too," they write. "The Ukrainians have shown what they can do," argue Johnson and Graham. After a year of slaughter, the West needs to do more to show the people of Russia what they are losing under Mr. Putin's misrule." US SEEKS STRATEGY FOR UKRAINE WAR THAT MANAGES FEAR OF CRIMEA SHOWDOWN Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden has called a virtual meeting at 9 a.m. with leaders of the G-7 (Germany, France, Italy, the U.K., Canada, and Japan) to discuss continued coordination of efforts to "support Ukraine and hold Russia accountable for its war," according to the White House. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be on the call, one of several virtual appearances he has scheduled for today. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in New York City to attend the U.N. Security Council ministerial meeting on Ukraine. Blinken's schedule includes a meeting with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and remarks during the ministerial at 10 a.m., which will be streamed live at www.state.gov, www.youtube.com/statedept, and on UNTV. STATE DEPARTMENT PREVIEWS G-7 SANCTIONS TO BE ANNOUNCED ON UKRAINE WAR ANNIVERSARY STILL NO F-16s: In a town hall-style event on CNN last night, national security adviser Jake Sullivan defended the decision to hold off for now on sending U.S. F-16s for the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive expected in the May-June time frame. "They're about to mount a significant counteroffensive. From our perspective, F-16s are not the key capability for that offensive. It is the stuff that we are moving rapidly to the front lines now," Sullivan said, referring to tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, artillery, and HIMARS launchers. "F-16s are not a question for the short-term fight. F-16s are a question for the long-term defense of Ukraine," Sullivan said. "These decisions are not just people sitting around and say, 'thumbs up, thumbs down.' A wide variety of factors go into the decision to provide a particular system, to train up the Ukrainians on it, and then to get it into the fight." "As always is the case, we can't do enough fast enough, and our focus has been to meet Ukraine's most pressing needs," said Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in an interview on MSNBC yesterday. "And so, as we pull these pieces together, I think the Ukrainians are going to have a pretty good capability by the time that they look to launch their next offensive operation." Austin released a statement this morning marking the first year of the war. You can read it here. FIGHT BETWEEN WAGNER LEADER AND RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY IS 'UNPRECEDENTED': STATE DEPARTMENT CHINA'S 'PEACE' PLAN: The Chinese Foreign Ministry released a 12-point position paper calling for a political settlement to the war, which includes proposals for a ceasefire and a resumption of peace talks, conditions which Ukraine has flatly rejected. Zelensky said he will only negotiate with Putin after his forces leave Ukrainian soil, and that any ceasefire would only give Russia's beleaguered forces a breather to rest and rearm. The Chinese plan does include a call for "respecting the sovereignty of all countries," "Keeping nuclear power plants safe," and "resolving the humanitarian crisis." But it also calls for "stopping unilateral sanctions," which is another non-starter. CHINA WOULD SEND ARMS TO RUSSIA 'AT THEIR OWN PERIL,' STATE DEPARTMENT SAYS At GITMO, THERE ARE NOW 32: With the Pentagon announcement yesterday that two brothers never charged with any crime were being repatriated to Pakistan from the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo, the prisoner population there is now down to 32. Abdul Rabbani, 55, and Mohammed Rabbani, 53, have been held for 20 years and were found by a military review commission in 2021 to no longer pose "a continuing significant threat to the security of the United States." "The United States appreciates the willingness of the Government of Pakistan and other partners to support ongoing U.S. efforts focused on responsibly reducing the detainee population and ultimately closing the Guantanamo Bay facility," the Pentagon said in its statement. "Today, 32 detainees remain at Guantanamo Bay: 18 are eligible for transfer; 3 are eligible for a Periodic Review Board; 9 are involved in the military commissions process; and 2 remaining detainees have been convicted in military commissions," the Pentagon said. The Rundown Washington Examiner: The cold hard truth: Ukraine could lose to Putin if it can't win this year Washington Examiner: Pentagon announces $2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on anniversary of war Washington Examiner: Putin 'must be under immense pressure' on anniversary of Ukraine invasion Washington Examiner: US seeks strategy for Ukraine war that manages fear of Crimea showdown Washington Examiner: State Department previews G-7 sanctions to be announced on Ukraine war anniversary Washington Examiner: China would send arms to Russia 'at their own peril,' State Department says Washington Examiner: Pentagon warns of 'consequences' for China deepening relationship with Russia Washington Examiner: Fight between Wagner leader and Russian Defense Ministry is 'unprecedented': State Department Washington Examiner: US aid to Ukraine tops $112 billion in first year as Biden promises more to come Washington Examiner: Timeline of Russia's yearlong war in Ukraine Washington Examiner: Opinion: Congress should help protect Ukraine's border and ours CNN: U.S. Defense Secretary Tells CNN Military Aid To Ukraine Will 'Change The Dynamics' Of War With Russia Washington Times: Pentagon Pushing Defense Industry To Churn Out More Arms For Ukraine New York Times: It's Complicated': How Biden and Zelensky Forged a Wartime Partnership New York Times: Prigozhin's Feud With Russia's Military Leaves Questions About Battlefield Results Wall Street Journal: Resolution At U.N. Demands Quick Exit Washington Post: Russian Propagandists Are Using Twitter Verification To Appear Trustworthy 19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Ruined Russia's Script for War. Will Ukraine Do Better? 19fortyfive.com: The Ukraine War Could Mean the End of Russia 19fortyfive.com: War in Ukraine: What Happens In Year Two? New York Times: To Convince Allies, U.S. Decided Some Intelligence Shouldn't Be Secret Wall Street Journal: Taiwan Foreign Minister Held High-Level Meeting In Washington CNN: U.S. Plans To Expand Training Of Taiwanese Forces Defense News: Boeing Will Close Super Hornet Production Line In 2025 Popular Mechanics: The Navy's New Ship Can Run Without Humans For 30 Straight Days USNI News: Unmanned Supply Drones, Forward Basing Key to Marines' New Logistics Plan Defense News: The Marine Corps' Logistics System Is Behind ― Here's The Overhaul Plan Marine Corps Times: How JADC2 Is Like A High-Tech Grill, According To One Marine Colonel Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Launches New Study of Cancer Risk in ICBM Crews Air & Space Forces Magazine: Heritage: Here's How to Answer South Korean Worries Over Nuclear Threats Air & Space Forces Magazine: Northrop Grumman Touts New Multimode Sensor As Quicker, Cheaper Upgrade Military.com: Navy SEAL Dies In Parachute Mishap, 4th Training Death In 14 Months Calendar FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 24 8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs. Email Thom Shanker at tshanker@email.gwu.edu 10 a.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies recorded event: "Securing Contested Waters: A Conversation with NAVCENT Commander Vice Adm. Charles 'Brad' Cooper" https://www.fdd.org/category/events 11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: "U.S.-China Relationship and war in Ukraine," with former White House National Security Adviser John Bolton https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live 11 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: "Meeting the Russia challenge: Lessons from the foreign policy transition from Bush to Obama," with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, senior fellow in public policy at the Hoover Institution; and former Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Stephen Hadley, founding principal of Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC https://www.brookings.edu/events/meeting-the-russia-challenge 11:15 a.m. 2134 Kalorama Rd. NW— U.S. Agency for International Development discussion marking the one year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; and USAID Administrator Samantha Power. RSVP: press@usaid.gov 11:30 a.m. Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance virtual discussion: "Ensuring Effective Integrated Missile Defense Architecture with our Allies and Partners," with retired Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, former U.S. Air Forces in Europe commander; Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, former U.S. European Command deputy director for plans, policy and strategy; and Riki Ellison, chairman and founder of MDAA https://missiledefenseadvocacy.org/virtual-crt-ensuring-effective-integrated-missile-defense-architecture-with-our-allies-and-partners 2:15 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research and Institute for the Study of War in-person discussion: "Russia's War on Ukraine: What Lies Ahead in 2023?" with Leon Aron, senior fellow, AEI; George Barros, Russia analyst, Institute for the Study of War; Nataliya Bugayova, nonresident Russia fellow, ISW; Mason Clark, senior analyst, ISW; Kateryna Stepanenko, Russia analyst, ISW; Karolina Hird, Russia analyst, ISW; Frederick Kagan, director of the Critical Threats Project, AEI; Kimberly Kagan, president, ISW; former Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH); and Dalibor Rohac, senior fellow, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/russias-war-on-ukraine-what-lies-ahead MONDAY | FEBRUARY 27 2 p.m. 789 Massachusetts Ave., NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research in-person event: "Not Just an Air and Maritime Theater: The Army's Role in the Indo-Pacific," with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; Commanding Gen. Charles Flynn, U.S. Army Pacific; Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, AEI; and Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/not-just-an-air-and-maritime-theater TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 28 8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with John Sopko, special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction. Contact: Thom Shanker at tshanker@email.gwu.edu 9 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project and Konrad Adenauer Foundation webinar: "The Taliban's Takeover In Afghanistan – Effects On Global Terrorism," with Hessam Habibi Doroh, researcher and lecturer at the University of Applied Sciences, FH Campus Wien in Vienna; Gerhard Conrad, CEP Advisory Board member and intelligence adviser to the Munich Security Conference; Ellinor Zeino, country director of Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Kabul; and Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director, Counter Extremism Project https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register 10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: "Oversight of U.S. Military Support to Ukraine," with testimony from Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy; Robert Storch, Department of Defense inspector general; and Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, Joint Staff operations director https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings 10 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Veterans' Affairs and House Veterans' Affairs Committees joint hearing on "Legislative Presentation of Disabled American Veterans," with testimony from Joseph Parsetich, national commander of Disabled American Veterans; J. Marc Burgess, national adjutant; Barry Jesinoski, executive director, DAV national headquarters; Edward Reese, executive director, DAV Washington headquarters; Jim Marszalek, DAV national service director; Joy Ilem, DAV national legislative director; John Kleindienst, national director of voluntary service; Ryan Burgos, DAV, national employment director; and Darlene Spence, DAV auxiliary national commander https://www.veterans.senate.gov/2023/2/legislative-presentation-of-disabled-american-veterans 10 a.m. HVC-210 U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: "Combatting the Generational Challenge of Chinese Communist Party Aggression," with Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs; Michael Schiffer, assistant administrator of the Bureau for Asia, U.S. Agency for International Development; Scott Nathan, CEO, U.S. International Development Finance Corporation; and Alan Estevez, undersecretary of commerce for industry and security, Department of Commerce https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/press-release/chairman 10 a.m. 210 Cannon — House Select Intelligence Committee hearing: "Think Tank Leaders," with testimony from Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations; Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council; Jason Matheny, president and CEO of the RAND Corporation; John Walters, president and CEO of the Hudson Institute; and Amy Zegart, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor of political science at Stanford University http://intelligence.house.gov 10:30 a.m. 2358-A Rayburn — House Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing: "Quality of Life in the Military," with testimony from Army Sgt. Maj. Michael Grinston; Navy Master Chief Petty Officer James Honea; Marine Corps Sgt. Maj. Troy Black; Air Force Chief Master Sgt. Joanne S. Bass; and Space Force Chief Master Sgt. Roger Towberman http://appropriations.house.gov 2 p.m. H-140 U.S. Capitol — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing: "Ukraine Oversight," with testimony from Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, Joint Staff director of operations; and Celeste Wallander, assistant defense secretary for international security affairs http://appropriations.house.gov 2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: "COVID-19's Impact on DoD and its Servicemembers," with testimony from Gilbert Cisneros, undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Gabe Camarillo, undersecretary of the Army; Erik Raven, undersecretary of the Navy; and Gina Ortiz Jones, undersecretary of the Air Force https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/covid 2:30 p.m. 2212 Rayburn — House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee hearing: "Energy, Installations, and Environment Program Update," with testimony from Brenden Owens, assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations, and environment; Meredith Berger, assistant secretary of the Navy, energy, installations, and environment, Rachel Jacobson, assistant secretary of the Army, installations, energy and environment; and Edwin Oshiba, acting assistant secretary of the Air Force, energy, installations and environment https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/rdy-hearing-energy WEDNESDAY | MARCH 1 9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual Smart Women, Smart Power virtual conversation: "Military Deterrence in an Era of Strategic Competition," with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Kathleen McInnis, director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative https://www.csis.org/events/military-deterrence-era-strategic-competition 10 a.m. 2359 Rayburn — House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee: "Oversight Hearing - United Nations," with testimony from U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield http://appropriations.house.gov THURSDAY | MARCH 2 10 a.m. — Hudson Institute event: "Building a More Resilient Indo-Pacific Security Architecture," with Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Lindsey Ford, deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia; Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair, Hudson Institute; and Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow and director, Keystone Defense Initiative https://www.eventbrite.com/e/building-a-more-resilient-indo-pacific THURSDAY | MARCH 9 8 a.m. 2043 Rayburn — Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition "Congressional Forum," with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger; Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI); Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI); Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); and Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) https://amphibiouswarship.org/congressional-forum | | | "We are the Dead. Short days ago We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow, Loved and were loved, and now we lie, In Flanders fields. Take up our quarrel with the foe: To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who die We shall not sleep, though poppies grow In Flanders fields."
| Canadian Lt. Col. John McCrae, poet, physician, author, artist, and soldier during World War I, 1872-1918
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