GOP's incredible shrinking lanes

PRESENTED BY EMERGENT   Axios Sneak Peek By Zachary Basu and Alexi McCammond · Mar 27, 2023 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 980 words ... 3.5 minutes. ⚡ Situational awareness: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who led bipartisan gun talks last year, said the Senate has "gone about as far as we can go" when asked about a legislative response to today's school shooting in Nashville, Tennessee.     1 big thing: GOP's incredible shrinking lanes Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   New polling is reinforcing the Trumpworld view that traditional GOP primary "lanes" are a thing of the past, leaving just two viable campaign styles: "Always Trump" or "Sometimes Trump." Why it matters: The remaking of the Republican base is proving to be a massive challenge for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other potential 2024 candidates, especially as they discover the dangers of sparring directly with former President Trump, Axios' Alexi McCammond writes. A recent Monmouth poll found that Trump currently polls higher than all other candidates and potential candidates — combined. Unless Trump is forced out of the race by legal troubles or health issues — as some Republicans privately hope — the path to victory for an alternative candidate will likely remain narrow. Zoom in: A majority of the GOP is represented by "Sometimes Trump" voters, who voted for him twice but think he's too focused on the past, Republican pollster Whit Ayres told Axios. Some pollsters say the path to winning without the "Always Trump" bloc requires capturing the bulk of "Sometimes Trump" voters and a slice of the "Never Trumpers." The first likely candidate to test that theory is DeSantis, who is tacking hard to the right on policy and beginning to lob soft criticisms at Trump tied to his leadership style and penchant for personal drama. So far, this hybrid style is not proving particularly effective: DeSantis has dropped 12 points with GOP voters since Monmouth's first 2024 primary poll conducted in December. Be smart: Trump has changed the way his Republican rivals can campaign. Constituencies tied to ideology, religion, race, class and gender have all shaped presidential primaries in the past. Now, it's personality — and political proximity to Trump. Trump's unique ability to dominate the airwaves makes it nearly impossible for rivals to distance themselves from his campaign, as showcased by the Republicans who felt compelled to defend him after news broke of his potential indictment in Manhattan. Even on policy, Trump has developed a Teflon shield that other candidates can't replicate: For example, Senate Republicans excoriated DeSantis — but not Trump — for voicing the same skeptical position on Ukraine. What to watch: One clear sign that DeSantis sees value in the "Sometimes Trump" strategy: The new super PAC set to serve as the Florida governor's primary outside spending vehicle is staffing up with top Trump alumni. Two of the 2020 Trump campaign's top communications aides — Erin Perrine and Matt Wolking — have joined the Never Back Down PAC, which was launched by former Trump immigration official Ken Cuccinelli this month. Share this story.         2. 👀 Biden's thorny summit — take two Photo: Gili Yaari/NurPhoto via Getty Images Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still expected to address the U.S.-led Summit for Democracy this week, even after his now-suspended plans for a judicial overhaul triggered unprecedented domestic upheaval. Why it matters: President Biden's inaugural summit last year drew criticism for its controversial invite list, which featured countries such as Poland, Mexico and the Philippines that have experienced democratic backsliding in recent years. Between the lines: The balance between shunning imperfect governments and keeping them close is a delicate one, especially for an administration that has framed U.S. rivalries with Russia and China as part of a global battle for democracy. Take India, for example: The U.S. has declined to comment on the expulsion of the country's top opposition leader from Parliament last week, which critics condemned as an assault on democracy. The Biden administration sees New Delhi as a key strategic partner for countering China and plans to throw a state dinner for Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House this summer. Go deeper: The latest on the turmoil in Israel from our correspondent in Tel Aviv         3. 🔎 Scoop: Jordan demands answers on ICE's low deportations Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) speaks during a press conference on the situation at the southern border. Photo: Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images   As the House GOP hunts for ways to slash government spending, Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is demanding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials explain a decline in deportations and use of detention space, Axios' Stef Kight reports. Why it matters: ICE arrests and deportations have declined at least in part because the agency's resources are being directed toward handling the massive numbers of migrants and asylum seekers crossing the Southwest border during the past two years. The border issue has continued to drain ICE resources, and the agency faces a roughly $500 million shortfall already for this fiscal year, sources familiar with the situation have told Axios. Money issues have forced the agency to lessen its use of Alternative to Detention programs, which place migrants in various tracking programs instead of physical detention spaces. What we're watching: The agency likely will need to move around Homeland Security funds or receive supplemental money from Congress to maintain its current workload and programs. Any such request would come as House Republicans are threatening widespread budget cuts — with a special eye on agencies they're investigating. Keep reading.         A MESSAGE FROM EMERGENT Safeguarding millions against public health threats     Accidental opioid overdoses can happen to anyone, anywhere, at any time. In the fight to help combat the opioid epidemic, Emergent has been committed to expanding access — and awareness — to naloxone including for the most vulnerable patient populations at risk. Learn more.     4. 📊 Dems' preferred candidate: "Don't know" Data: Monmouth University; Chart: Axios Visuals 74% of Democratic-leaning voters have a favorable opinion of Biden, but just 25% want him to run in 2024, according to a new Monmouth poll. The intrigue: 51% said they "don't know" who they'd support in his absence. The only Democrat who registered above single digits was Vice President Kamala Harris, with 13%.         5. 📰 Sign of the times Screenshot of Washington Post homepage this morning. Above: The Washington Post published an extensively researched package this morning on the rise of the AR-15, the best-selling rifle in the U.S. and "a stark symbol of the nation's gun violence epidemic." Below: Within hours, the package was replaced at the top of WaPo's homepage with breaking news of a school shooting in Nashville, Tennessee. The shooter had three guns, including an AR-15-style weapon. Screenshot of Washington Post homepage this afternoon.         A MESSAGE FROM EMERGENT Safeguarding millions against public health threats     Accidental opioid overdoses can happen to anyone, anywhere, at any time. In the fight to help combat the opioid epidemic, Emergent has been committed to expanding access — and awareness — to naloxone including for the most vulnerable patient populations at risk. Learn more.   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Your personal policy analyst is here Stay ahead of the trends, players and outside forces shaping policy in your industry with Axios Pro. Contact us for special corporate and government pricing.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201