Yes, I do think he (Trump) will go to jail on it.

Yes, I do think he (Trump) will go to jail on it.      Axios Sneak Peek By Zachary Basu · May 23, 2023 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,082 words ... 4 minutes.     1 big thing: What Jack Smith knows Smith presides during a 2020 war crimes hearing at The Hague for former Kosovo President Hashim Thaçi. Photo: Jerry Lampen/Pool/AFP via Getty Images   Special counsel Jack Smith is wrapping up his criminal investigation into whether former President Trump mishandled classified documents, having interviewed virtually every employee at his Mar-a-Lago home, the Wall Street Journal reports. Why it matters: This is the probe widely believed to pose the most serious threat to Trump's freedom. Based on the publicly reported evidence, Republicans may struggle in their efforts to defend Trump and undermine Smith's credibility in the way they've tried to do with Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. Former Attorney General Bill Barr, who slammed Bragg's indictment last month as an "abuse of prosecutorial power," warned last week that Trump could be "very exposed" legally in the Mar-a-Lago case. "I think this is a tight obstruction case," former Trump White House lawyer Ty Cobb also told CNN last week. "Yes, I do think he will go to jail on it." What we know: The FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last August on suspicion that Trump had not returned all of the government documents in his possession, even after months of requests and a subpoena in May. Trump's lawyer, Evan Corcoran, was forced to testify after a judge determined Trump may have used him to lie to prosecutors — piercing traditional attorney-client privilege with a "crime fraud exception." Corcoran's remarkably detailed notes indicated he warned Trump that he could not keep the documents after the subpoena — and that Trump asked if they could push back against the Justice Department, according to The Guardian and CNN. Between the lines: Proving that Trump deliberately took the documents and resisted giving them back — despite being told the law required him to — will be key to making Smith's case iron-clad. Trump appeared to hand prosecutors a gift by confirming in his CNN town hall this month that he knowingly "took the documents" because he was "allowed to" — citing an inaccurate interpretation of the Presidential Records Act. He also claimed the documents became "automatically declassified" when he took them. The National Archives recently gave the special counsel 16 records showing Trump and his top advisers were aware of "whether, why and how" he could declassify documents — potentially undercutting that defense. The big picture: Trump's indictment in Manhattan led to a surge in GOP support and fundraising, as Republicans — including Trump's rivals for the nomination — rallied to defend the former president and attack Bragg. Some of Trump's associates are preparing to fundraise off of Smith's potential prosecution, according to the Journal, but it remains to be seen whether federal charges would elicit the same GOP rallying effect. Meanwhile, the judge presiding over Trump's criminal case in Manhattan today set a March 25, 2024, trial date — smack dab in the middle of the GOP's presidential primaries. Share this story.         2. 🚀 DeSantis' hyper-online launch Musk, left, will be part of event with DeSantis on Twitter Spaces. Photos: Justin Sullivan; Stephen Maturen via Getty Images Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plans to announce his presidential campaign tomorrow at 6pm ET on a Twitter Spaces live feed with Elon Musk, NBC News first reported and Axios has confirmed. The conversation will be moderated by David Sacks, a venture capitalist who has expressed support for both DeSantis and Musk. Why it matters: It's a surprise twist on a campaign launch that's been expected for months, tying DeSantis to an eccentric billionaire who has more than 140 million followers on the platform he owns. Musk said last year that he would vote for DeSantis if he runs for president, calling the Florida governor a "sensible and centrist" option. Musk has also railed against what he calls the "woke mind virus" — aligning with DeSantis' aggressive culture war push in Florida. How it's playing: Representatives for both the DNC and Trump — who exclusively posts on Truth Social even after Musk un-banned his Twitter account — blasted DeSantis' plan as "out of touch." "Launching a campaign for the dozens of people on Twitter Spaces is curious, even for the world’s most online candidate," said DNC spokesperson Ammar Moussa. "The only thing less relatable than a niche campaign launch on Twitter is DeSantis' after-party at the uber elite Four Seasons resort in Miami," said Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC. Reality check: A year from now, how DeSantis launched his campaign will be of little importance if he can attract the broad GOP coalition he needs to halt Trump's momentum.         3. 💰 Debt ceiling latest: Another impasse McCarthy walks through the Capitol's Statuary Hall. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images   As of the sending of this newsletter, negotiators for the White House and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) had no plans to meet tonight after ending two hours of talks without a deal on the debt ceiling. Why it matters: There are nine days until the U.S. risks being unable to pay its bills, triggering a catastrophic default that could wipe out roughly 1.5 million jobs in as little as a week, according to Moody's Analytics. Two quotes du jour: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who has purposely removed himself from negotiations, predicted there will be a bipartisan breakthrough: "Everyone needs to relax. ... The country will not default." Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who has rejected any compromise with the White House, told Semafor: "I think my conservative colleagues for the most part support [the GOP's debt ceiling bill] and they don't feel like we should negotiate with our hostage."         A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Your trusted source for policy news     Axios Pro: Policy takes you into the halls of Congress, with an insider’s look at the Hill and everything happening. Subcribe today.     4. 📊 Charted: Biden campaign spends big to close digital deficit Note: Those highlighted in bold have officially entered the race. Data: FWIW Newsletter; Chart: Axios Visuals In its first month, Biden’s re-election campaign has already spent four times what Trump’s team has in online ads in 2023, an attempt to jump-start small donations and reduce Trump’s digital advantage, Axios' Alex Thompson and Sara Fischer report. Why it matters: Biden's campaign wants to signal strong grassroots support with a large number of individual donors when it discloses fundraising numbers in July. Despite Trump being temporarily banned by most major social media platforms in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection, his following still dwarfs Biden's and those of his 2024 GOP rivals. Keep reading.         5. 👀 Jaw-dropper in Texas Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios   Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton called on state House Speaker Dade Phelan, a fellow Republican, to resign, accusing him of presiding over the chamber "in a state of apparent debilitating intoxication." Context: A video of Phelan slurring his words on the House floor went viral last week. Phelan’s office has declined to comment on the incident, according to the Texas Tribune. Paxton himself has faced ethical problems for years, having been indicted in 2015 for securities fraud. He pleaded not guilty in the case and has yet to stand trial. Go deeper.         A MESSAGE FROM AXIOS Your trusted source for policy news     Axios Pro: Policy takes you into the halls of Congress, with an insider’s look at the Hill and everything happening. Subcribe today.   📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Your personal policy analyst is here Stay ahead of the trends, players and outside forces shaping policy in your industry with Axios Pro. Contact us for special corporate and government pricing.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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