| A PURGE AFTER THE PUTSCH? Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, was arrested four days ago on suspicion he may have played a role in the aborted weekend mutiny by Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to a report in the Moscow Times. The report is said to be based on "two sources close to the Defense Ministry" and notes Surovikin has not been seen in public since Saturday, the day Prigozhin launched his failed attempt to dispose of the leadership of the Defense Ministry by force. The New York Times yesterday quoted "U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence" as concluding Surovikin "had advance knowledge" of Prigozhin's plans and may have collaborated in the planning. "American officials also said there are signs that other Russian generals may also have supported Mr. Prigozhin's attempt," the newspaper reported, quoting "current and former U.S. officials" as saying "Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that others in positions of power would come to his aid." SYMPATHIZER OR SCAPEGOAT? In its latest assessment, the Institute for the Study of War said while the arrest of Surovikin remains unconfirmed, it suggests Russian President Vladimir Putin might be intending to purge the Defense Ministry of generals seen as disloyal. "If Russian authorities did arrest Surovikin then the Kremlin will likely use Surovikin and his affiliates as scapegoats to publicly explain why the Russian military and Russian internal security apparatuses responded poorly to the rebellion and to justify a potential overhaul of the Russian military leadership," the ISW said, noting it has previously reported on Surovikin's "notable Wagner affiliations and alleged support for Wagner." "Surovikin is a prime candidate for a scapegoat regardless of the actual level of support he gave to the rebellion," the Washington-based thinktank said, but it speculates that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the General Staff chief, will likely stay despite their unpopularity among Russia's "pro-war ultranationalists" who generally agree with Prigozhin's biting criticism of the incompetence and greed of the military leaders. "Putin is likely further incentivized not to publicly replace Gerasimov out of fears of legitimizing rebellion as a successful means of blackmail," the ISW said. "Putin likely values Gerasimov for his loyalty above all else, and he may task Gerasimov with staff changes within the MOD focused on loyalty should the Kremlin decide to overhaul the Russian military leadership." PRIGOZHIN PLANNED TO CAPTURE RUSSIAN MILITARY LEADERS BUT PLOT WAS LEAKED: REPORT WHO IS SUROVIKIN? The New York Times described Surovikin as "a respected military leader who helped shore up defenses across the battle lines after Ukraine's counteroffensive last year." He was replaced by Gerasimov in January but is said to remain popular among the troops. "Surovikin is not some mid-level colonel. He is/was second in command in Ukraine and was first in command before Putin removed him," tweeted Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. "Having him out of the fight would be good for Ukraine. Having Russian soldiers pissed off about him being out of the fight would be even better." On Saturday, just before he vanished from public view, Surovikin appeared in a video, calling on Prigozhin's Wagner forces to end their march to Moscow. "When watching on Saturday, I thought #Surovikin sounded drunk & did not seem excited to be delivering this message," McFaul tweeted. BIDEN SAYS PUTIN 'ABSOLUTELY' WEAKENED BY RUSSIAN MERCENARY REVOLT Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish Tuesday, July 4, as we observe the Independence Day federal holiday. Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address today's European Union summit meeting in Brussels by video link. In a Wednesday speech to his parliament, known as the Verkhovna Rada or Supreme Council of Ukraine, Zelensky argued that Ukraine has "historically strengthened" the European Union. "European values have never been as effective as they are now. The Ukrainian component is what the EU has been lacking," he said, noting that Ukraine is a candidate to join the European Union. Zelensky also renewed his plea for a firm commitment from NATO at its upcoming summit for Ukraine to join the alliance. "Ukraine's accession to NATO will be a powerful signal to the world," he told Ukrainian lawmakers. "NATO will guarantee security for Ukraine, and our defense and security forces will guarantee security and protection for other NATO members." 'UKRAINE'S RIGHTFUL PLACE IS IN NATO': NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is also scheduled to address the EU summit. In remarks before meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris yesterday, Stoltenberg said at the NATO leaders summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, allies will approve a "multi-year package of assistance" and an upgrading of political ties with Kyiv. "This will bring Ukraine closer to our alliance," Stoltenberg said. "Once the war ends, we need arrangements in place for Ukraine's security, so that history does not repeat itself … Ukraine's rightful place is in NATO." SWEDEN'S 'TIME IS NOW': Stoltenberg also said there will be another push ahead of the summit to convince Turkey to drop its objections to Sweden becoming the 32nd member of the alliance. "I have called another meeting of senior officials from Turkiye, Finland and Sweden next Thursday in Brussels," Stoltenberg said. "The time is now to welcome Sweden as a full member of NATO." The Vilnius summit will be the first with Finland as a member of the alliance. The leaders are also expected to adopt new spending goals for NATO nations that would make 2% of GDP a floor, not the ceiling, for every member. WALTZ: 'EVERYBODY IS LOOKING OVER THEIR SHOULDER': In an appearance on Fox News, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), a former Green Beret, said the Prigozhin mutiny has sent shivers through the leadership in Moscow, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. "I think everybody at that level is looking over their shoulder in Russia," Waltz told Fox's Neil Cavuto. "There's no just retirement to go do some fly-fishing. One way or another, it's going to end badly for all of them, even Putin." Even though Putin was able to put down the rebellion, the extraordinary events of the weekend revealed serious cracks in Putin's grip on power. "Prigozhin and his forces shot down multiple Russian aircraft on their way to Moscow," said Waltz. "It exposed that the cupboard is bare when it comes to security forces for internal security; 85 percent of the Russian military is devoted to Ukraine." "All the chips are on that table. And I think Putin is going to be looking over his shoulder for the foreseeable future," he added. "Hopefully, the Ukrainian military can take advantage of this and be agile and nimble enough to hit the Russian military not only where Wagner was, but if they had to pull any forces off to deal with Wagner." BLINKEN BACKS 'EXERTING PRESSURE ON RUSSIA' DESPITE NUCLEAR INSTABILITY FEARS THE Il-22 SHOOTDOWN: Before their march on Moscow was aborted, Wagner forces shot down at least six helicopters and an Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post plane, killing at least 13 Russian air force personnel. The loss of the Il-22 was particularly damaging to the war effort and is "likely to have a negative impact on Russian air and land operations," according to the latest intelligence assessment posted to Twitter by the British Defense Ministry. "The Il-22M is part of a relatively small fleet of up to 12 aircraft, heavily utilized for both airborne command and control, and radio relay tasks. These special mission aircraft have played a key role in orchestrating Russian forces in their war against Ukraine," the Twitter update said. "As high value assets they have operated within the safety of Russian airspace, far beyond the range of Ukrainian air defense systems." "In the short term the psychological shock of losing a large number of aircrew in this manner will almost certainly damage morale within the Russian Aerospace Force," the tweet said. "In the longer term, there is a possibility that current tasking levels may have to be reduced to safely manage the remaining fleet. This will likely undermine Russia's ability to command and coordinate its forces, particularly during periods of high tempo operations." TUBERVILLE'S INTRANSIGENCE: Sen. Tommy Tuberville's (R-AL) stubborn refusal to lift his hold on high-level military promotions over his opposition to the Pentagon's abortion travel policies is threatening to create vacancies on the Joint Chiefs of Staff, including the chairman, who serves as chief military adviser to the president and the secretary of defense, reported the Washington Examiner's Mike Brest. More than half of the Joint Chiefs of Staff will leave their roles between July and October, including Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger, Army chief of staff Gen. James McConville, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley. "While the Senate does technically have the ability to navigate around Tuberville's hold, it would be costly, time-consuming, and inefficient," reported Brest. "Congress typically passes military nominations in batches by unanimous consent, which means it would take only one senator to object to prevent it from moving forward, while voting on each would limit the Senate's ability to take up other issues." It "just sucks up lots of time," Bradley Bowman, a director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Examiner. Gen. Eric Smith, nominated to be Marine Corps commandant, and Gen. Randy George, nominated to be Army chief of staff, would be able to serve in an acting capacity since both are the No. 2 officers of their services. Gen. Charles Q. Brown, nominated to be the next chairman, could continue to serve in his current capacity as Air Force chief of staff, as his term doesn't expire until 2024. VACANCIES ON JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF LOOM AS TUBERVILLE ABORTION STANDOFF CONTINUES The Rundown Washington Examiner: Biden says Putin 'absolutely' weakened by Russian mercenary revolt Washington Examiner: Blinken backs 'exerting pressure on Russia' despite nuclear instability fears Washington Examiner: Prigozhin planned to capture Russian military leaders but plot was leaked: Report Washington Examiner: Vacancies on Joint Chiefs of Staff loom as Tuberville abortion standoff continues Washington Examiner: Illegal crossings at southern border since Title 42 down 44%, lowest in two years Washington Examiner: State Department confirms 'shooting incident' outside US consulate in Saudi Arabia Washington Examiner: Chinese spy balloon used US technology: Report New York Times: Satellite images show rapid construction at a deserted military base in Belarus. Is it Wagner's new home? Wall Street Journal: Putin Seeks Tighter Control Of Wagner Washington Post: Mutiny Shakes Putin's Standing New York Times: The Ukrainian counteroffensive faces an enemy nearly as daunting as the Russians: the terrain. Bloomberg: China Wants Sanctions Lifted as Condition for Military Talks With US Reuters: U.S. Expects More Cooperation With India In South China Sea CQ Roll Call: Analysis: Uncertainty Clouds Defense Spending Forecast CNN: 'Hell-Bent On Destruction:' Senators Fume Over Growing Number Of Blocked Nominations Military.com: Navy Recruiters Will Work 6-Day Weeks, Face Changes To Orders Amid Recruiting Struggle Defense One: Pentagon Could Block 80-Plus Deliveries of F-35s Air & Space Forces Magazine: Strategy & Policy: Is the F-35 Program Too Big to Manage? 19fortyfive.com: The F-35 is Key to Our Economic and National Security Air & Space Forces Magazine: T-7 Makes Its First Official Test Flight with an Air Force Pilot Breaking Defense: On His Way Out, Marines' Berger Addresses Force Design Critics, Afghanistan, and What's Next National Defense Magazine: Marine Corps Commandant Says Logistics, Industrial Base Are Major Concerns Defense News: U.S. Marine Corps Begins Developing Smaller Pre-Positioning Ship Stars and Stripes: Latest Battery Technology For Electric Vehicles Could Give Troops Cleaner, Quieter Power On Battlefields Space News: DOD to Invest in Startup Developing Mobile Space-Launch Platforms Air & Space Forces Magazine: As the Air Force Prepares for Austere Ops, Who Will Watch the Weather? Air & Space Forces Magazine: Head of ICBM Cancer Study Says the Air Force Is 'Fully Invested' CBS News: US Formally Investigating Reports of Botched Syria Strike Alleged to Have Killed Civilian in May 19fortyfive.com: What Happens When a Nuclear Weapons State Faces a Coup or Domestic Chaos? 19fortyfive.com: The Ukraine War Is a Big 'Kamikaze Drone' War 19fortyfive.com: CF-105 Arrow: The Fighter Jet Built for a War with Russia Calendar THURSDAY | JUNE 29 9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "What is Next for North Korea?" with Markus Garlauskas, director of the Atlantic Council's Indo-Pacific Security Initiative https://www.csis.org/events/what-next-north-korea 10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Previewing Vilnius," with U.K. Ambassador to NATO David Quarrey https://www.csis.org/events/previewing-vilnius-conversation 10 a.m. 300 New Jersey Ave. NW — Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies National Security Symposium on "the legal, practical, and policy implications of the war between Russia and Ukraine," with former Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), former U.S. ambassador to NATO; and Beth Van Schaack, ambassador-at-large for global criminal justice at the State Department https://fedsoc.org/events. Livestream: https://www.youtube.com/TheFederalistSociety 10 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation webinar: "The Taliban's Takeover In Afghanistan – Effects On Global Terrorism," with Sofia Koller, CEP senior research analyst; Guido Steinberg, senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs; Edmund Fitton-Brown, former coordinator of the ISIL, Al-Qaeda and Taliban Monitoring Team of the U.N. Security Council; and Hans-Jakob Schindler, CEP senior director https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register 10:30 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies release of policy paper: "Accelerating 5th-Generation Airpower: Bringing Capability and Capacity to the Merge," with author and retired Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, former deputy Air Force chief of staff for operations and senior fellow, Mitchell Institute; Douglas Birkey, executive director, Mitchell Institute; Eric Gunzinger, former F-35 program manager for flight simulation test and evaluation; and retired Air Force Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, former commander, U.S. Air Forces Europe, U.S. Air Forces Africa, and Allied Air Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/6-29-policy-paper-release 11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies call-in press briefing to preview the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, with Max Bergmann, director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center, CSIS; Sean Monaghan, visiting fellow, Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, CSIS; Seth Jones, senior vice president, Harold Brown chairman and director, International Security Program, CSIS; and Cynthia Cook, director, Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and senior fellow, International Security Program, CSIS. RSVP: Paige Montfort pmontfort@csis.org 11 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion: "Peace in the Pacific," with former U.S. Indo-Pacific commanders, retired Adm. Philip Davidson and Adm. Harry Harris https://www.aei.org/events/peace-in-the-pacific 12 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies lunch discussion: "Building Deterrence: Security Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and Beyond," with Jessica Lewis, assistant secretary of state for political military affairs; and Bradley Bowman, senior director, FDD Center on Military and Political Power https://www.fdd.org/events/2023/06/29/building-deterrence-security-cooperation 12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion on Russia, China and the West in the Post-Cold War Era: The Limits of Liberal Universalism, with author Suzanne Loftus, research fellow at the Quincy Institute's Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/russia-china-and-the-west-in-the-post-cold-war-era FRIDAY | JUNE 30 9 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "The Third Anniversary of the Hong Kong National Security Law," with Benedict Rogers, co-founder and chief executive of Hong Kong Watch; and Miles Yu, director of Hudson's China Center https://www.hudson.org/events/third-anniversary-hong-kong 10 a.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies media briefing on major issues facing Taiwan and Japan by retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, FDD senior fellow; and Jonathan Schanzer, FDD senior vice president for research. The men have just returned from a research trip to the region. RSVP: email press@fdd.org 12 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club "Headliners Luncheon" with Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley https://www.press.org/events/headliners/npc-headliners-luncheon FRIDAY | JULY 7 7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference to preview the NATO summit in Vilnius https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news TUESDAY | JULY 11 4 a.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — President Joe Biden attends the two-day NATO leaders summit July 11-12 https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news 9:30 a.m. 601 13th St. NW — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Z Generation: Into the Heart of Russia's Fascist Youth, with author Ian Garner; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs. RSVP: sophie.williams@thepresidency.org | | | "Apparently, he chose Prigozhin's side during the uprising, and they've gotten him by the balls."
| A source quoted by the Moscow Times on the purported arrest of Gen. Sergei Surovikin on suspicion of collaborating with Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed attempt to remove the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry
|
|
| | 
Comments
Post a Comment