"Because of its economic strength and growing military power," Seth Cropsey writes in the new cover story of NATIONAL REVIEW magazine, "China is the greatest threat the U.S. faces."
Cropsey is a former naval officer, a former deputy undersecretary of the Navy, and the founder and president of the Yorktown Institute. He knows of what he speaks when he explains that the People's Liberation Army "has expanded more rapidly in the past 30 years than any armed force in history."
In only a decade, it has in many respects transformed itself. Formerly a territorial-defense force with limited standardized training and practices and no real desire to conduct combined-arms warfare or large-scale air-naval exercises, it is now a military with the world's largest navy by ship numbers, an increasingly competent ground army, and an air force capable of complex offensive operations.
American leaders should feel an unparalleled urgency in responding to this challenge. That's because, according to Cropsey's analysis, to win a fight over Taiwan, U.S. naval forces would have to push "within a 600- to 900-mile bubble around Taiwan."
Unfortunately, "it is dismayingly clear that the most effective strategy the U.S. can employ to deter and, by implication, defeat China requires a variety of scarce capabilities. The PLA surely understands this."
The greatest short-term risk is that China, perceiving a shortfall in American capabilities for the next five years — a shortfall that sabotage and strategic attack can accelerate — decides on an aggressive first strike on Taiwan, on the assumption that, after a few weeks, U.S. forces would become largely inoperable.
Read the whole essay in the new September 11, 2023, issue of NATIONAL REVIEW magazine. We are proud to present this great issue, full of exceptional essays covering American politics and culture.
Of course, as with any issue of NR, you'll also find book reviews — Dominic Pino's critique of Sohrab Ahmari's new book Tyranny, Inc. is very much worth a read — and wonderful essays such as Peter Tonguette's retrospective on the novelist Joseph Heller at 100, Rick Brookhiser on the Union Square flash riot, and Ross Douthat on the need for a new generation of auteur directors in cinema.
As we get ready to launch our bigger and completely redesigned magazine in November — read Rich Lowry's exciting announcement here — right now is a great time to lock in a discounted price: Fifty percent off — just $75 — a full year of the print magazine and NRPLUS in our print/digital bundle. The bundle is the absolute best way you can get the most out of your NR subscription while supporting our work in conservative journalism.
You might also consider getting a print-only or NRPLUS subscription as a gift for any students in your life heading off to college.
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