| 'PROSPECT OF A SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION': The United States has positioned two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Middle East, deployed more missile defenses to the region, and evacuated nonessential personnel from its embassy in Iraq as Iranian-backed proxy forces have targeted U.S. troops in Syria and Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants have attacked Israeli forces across the northern border with Lebanon. "Recently, we've seen rocket and UAV attacks against bases housing our troops in Iraq and Syria. We're concerned about potential escalation," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on ABC on Sunday. "In fact, what we're seeing is a prospect of a significant escalation of attacks on our troops and our people throughout the region." On Saturday, Austin ordered an unspecified number of additional forces to "prepare to deploy" in what he called "prudent contingency planning to increase their readiness and ability to quickly respond as required." At a briefing last week, the Pentagon confirmed a series of drone attacks in Syria, including one that caused minor injuries at the At-Tanf garrison where U.S. troops are based, as well as an incident in which the guided-missile destroyer USS Carney, operating in the Northern Red Sea, shot down three cruise missiles and several drones that were launched by Houthi forces in Yemen. The deployment of the additional U.S. assets is meant to send a clear message, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on CBS. "No one should take advantage of this moment to escalate, to further attacks on Israel, or for that matter attacks on us, on our personnel. The State Department has issued a "worldwide caution alert" advising U.S. citizens overseas to "exercise increased caution because of increased tensions around the world and the potential for terrorist attacks, demonstrations, or violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests." ISRAEL WAR: WHAT MILITARY SUPPORT HAS THE US SENT TO THE REGION KEANE: 'THE NO. 1 THREAT IS HEZBOLLAH': The cross-border attacks by Hezbollah are fueling fears of the war widening to include a second front along Israel's northern border with Lebanon. On Sunday, retired Gen. Jack Keane, former Army vice chief of staff, said that so far, Hezbollah has not fully mobilized or evacuated its own citizens from the border, but it is still the "No. 1 threat." "They're a paramilitary force. They have conventional capability. They have 130,000-plus rockets and missiles that the Iranians have given them," Keane said on Fox News Sunday. "They have a significant capability. Israelis have handled them before but struggled with it back in 2006. What we would see here is a very heavy rocket and missile attack that can range all of the major cities." "But the only thing that is relevant here, so our viewers understand, it's Iran," Keane said. "They will make those decisions, whether they go or not. And that likely has something to do with how things go in Gaza with the Israelis and what the perception is in the international community as well. It's going to be Iran's decision, just as the Hamas attack on Israel was Iran's decision." MOST SERIOUS CHALLENGE SINCE WWII: "The United States is facing global security challenges we haven't seen since World War II," Keane said. "We have three geographic areas of vital national interests, Europe, China and Indo-Pacific region, and also in the Middle East. War has broken out in two of those areas, and the third area, China, he's threatening it." "This is not happening by accident. They perceive that we don't have the capabilities to deter them anymore, that we've lost some political will. And here, we're reflecting this loss of political will in Ukraine," Keane said. "The world is becoming a more dangerous place. And the United States's weakness is what they perceived. Whether it's real or not is not — it's irrelevant. They perceived it." "This is a dangerous world. And it demands world leadership," former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta agreed in an interview on CNN. "And it demands world leadership. … If the United States doesn't provide that leadership, very frankly nobody else will." "We're reflecting this loss of political will in Ukraine," Keane said. "We not only have to support Ukraine — Ukraine's got to win this war. It's related to these other two regions. … We cannot have Russia win that war. If that happens, China wins, and so do the Iranians." ISRAEL WAR: RUSSIA'S TIES TO HAMAS FUEL WESTERN SUSPICIONS THAT PUTIN WANTS CRISIS TO WORSEN Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese begins a visit to the U.S. Albanese and his partner Jodie Haydon will visit the White House tomorrow, but the welcome ceremony, a bilateral meeting, a state dinner on the South Lawn, and a joint press conference with President Joe Biden are set for Wednesday. "The visit will underscore the deep and enduring alliance between the United States and Australia and the two nations' shared commitment to supporting an open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific," the White House said in a statement. "President Biden and Prime Minister Albanese will discuss strengthening collaboration on critical issues for both nations in order to ensure the alliance is well equipped to respond to ever-evolving regional and global challenges." BIDEN'S $105 BILLION ASK: Last week, Biden sent Congress a request for a supplemental appropriation totaling $105 billion for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and border security. The White House said nearly half of the money would be spent in the U.S. "This supplemental request invests over $50 billion in the American defense industrial base, ensuring our military continues to be the most ready, capable, and best-equipped fighting force the world has ever seen," Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young told reporters on Friday. "The funding will expand production lines, strengthen the American economy, keep us safe, and create new American jobs." Here's how it breaks down: - $61.4 billion — Ukraine military and economic assistance
- $14.3 billion — Israel military assistance
- $14 billion — Enhanced border enforcement
- $9.15 billion — Humanitarian assistance for civilians in Ukraine and Gaza
- $4 billion — Countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific
- $3.4 billion — Submarine industrial base
"The budget request makes notable, strategic investments, including by strengthening our submarine industrial base, a key component to making our AUKUS agreement a success, and by improving our infrastructure and adding capacity to meet U.S. military requirements," said national security adviser Jake Sullivan. "It will allow us to have more weapons and equipment that defend America to be made in America." On border security, the request includes funding for an additional 1,300 Border Patrol agents, 375 immigration judge teams, and 1,600 asylum officers, over 100 cutting-edge detection machines to help detect fentanyl at southwestern border ports of entry, and an additional 1,000 law enforcement personnel. "Some in Congress have said a lot about doing something on border security while refusing to take up the $4 billion request we sent in August to Congress," Young said. "We will not be lectured by those who refuse to act." BIDEN SUPPLEMENTAL FUNDING REQUEST INCLUDES $75 BILLION FOR UKRAINE AND ISRAEL COTTON: 'DEAD ON ARRIVAL': The prospects for the massive funding request are uncertain given the lack of a speaker of the House and the resistance of some Republicans to linking Ukraine aid to military assistance to Israel. "I think what the president did is completely disgraceful," Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) said. "If he wants to sell the American people on $60 billion more to Ukraine, he shouldn't use dead Israeli children to do it. It was disgusting." "If I have anything to do with it, it will be dead on arrival. And I think that's the emerging position among Republicans in the Senate," said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) on Sean Hannity's Friday night show on Fox News. "I think we need to support Israel. We got to control our southern border obviously. We need to reinforce Taiwan, and we can provide needed military aid to Ukraine. We can do all those things. But … that's not what Joe Biden's proposals do. It provides $3.5 billion of potential so-called humanitarian aid to Gaza, which we know under current conditions is little more than resupply for Hamas terrorists." BRIAN MAST PREDICT'S JOE BIDEN'S $100B AID REQUEST IS 'DEAD ON ARRIVAL' MCCONNELL: 'WE'RE GENERALLY IN THE SAME PLACE': But in separate interviews on Fox News and CBS, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) indicated he's willing to work with Biden's request to combine Ukraine and Israel military assistance into a single bill. "On this issue … we're generally in the same place," McConnell said on CBS's Face the Nation. "I know there are some Republicans in the Senate, and maybe more in the House, that think Ukraine is somehow different. I view it as all interconnected." "No Americans are getting killed in Ukraine. We are rebuilding our industrial base. The Ukrainians are destroying the army of one of our biggest rivals. I have a hard time finding anything wrong with that," McConnell said. "And also the notion that the Europeans are not doing enough. They've done almost $90 billion. They're housing a bunch of refugees who escaped. I think that our NATO allies in Europe have done quite a lot." "This is an emergency. It's an emergency that we step up and deal with this axis of evil — China, Russia, Iran — because it's an immediate threat to the United States," McConnell said on Fox News Sunday. "And so, we'll see what the supplemental looks like. We're going to take a good hard look at it." McConnell also repeated the Biden administration argument that while the weapons are going to Ukraine, much of the money is going to U.S. defense contractors. "A significant portion of it's being spent in the United States, in 38 different states, replacing the weapons that we sent to Ukraine with more modern weapons. So, we're rebuilding our industrial base." CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER The RundownWashington Examiner: Israel war: Biden supplemental funding request includes $75 billion for Ukraine and Israel Washington Examiner: What we know about the hospital bombing controversy in Gaza Washington Examiner: Israel intends for creation of 'new security regime' in Gaza after war Washington Examiner: Israel war: What military support has the US sent to the region Washington Examiner: Israel war: Two American hostages released from Gaza Washington Examiner: US advises allies to expel Russian spies working to 'undermine democratic processes globally' Washington Examiner: Israel war: Kremlin threatens nuclear war after Biden compares Russia to Hamas Washington Examiner: China aims for Middle East influence amid Israel's defensive war against Hamas Washington Examiner: China views Russia partnership as 'integral' to Beijing's goals, Pentagon says Washington Examiner: Israel war: Russia's ties to Hamas fuel Western suspicions that Putin wants crisis to worsen Washington Examiner: Israel war: Navy still without Senate-confirmed leader as Middle East heats up Washington Examiner: Trump responds to claim from Australian billionaire that he divulged critical secrets Washington Examiner: Arrests of people on FBI terror watch list crossing border illegally hits 100-year high Washington Examiner: CBP reports 2 million arrested for illegally crossing US border in fiscal 2023 Washington Examiner: Army private who fled to North Korea charged with desertion and possession of child pornography Washington Examiner: Defense Department says it has received 200 reports of UFO sightings in eight-month span Washington Examiner: Opinion: White House Report Card: Biden stumbles show weakness Washington Examiner: Opinion: Israel war: Why Biden is wrong to delay Israel's ground offensive New York Times: U.S. Advises Israel To Delay Gaza Invasion In Bid To Free More Hostages Wall Street Journal: Israel-Hamas War Revives Interest In U.S. Production Of Iron Dome Missiles Inside Defense: White House Seeks $1.2B for Laser Upgrade to Iron Dome to Protect Israel Air & Space Forces Magazine: Experts Say Hamas Used North Korean Weapons: What It Means for Israel, Nuclear Arms Wall Street Journal: Video Analysis Shows Gaza Hospital Hit by Failed Rocket Meant for Israel AP: Russia Names New Air Force Leader Replacing Rebellion-Tied General, State News Reports Reuters: Russian Forces Intensify Pressure On Ukraine's Avdiivka, Kherson New York Times: Inside The Commando Raids Unnerving Russia In Crimea Reuters: China Says It Uncovered Another Spying Case In U.S. AP: Philippines says a coast guard ship and supply boat were rammed by Chinese vessels at disputed shoal Air & Space Forces Magazine: SDA Awards Deal to York for 62 More LEO Satellites Breaking Defense: Space Force Plans Next MEO Missile Tracking Satellite Awards by Early 2025 Defense One: Russian Cruise Missiles Have US Air Force Scouting for Thousands of Acres of Land Air & Space Forces Magazine: Selling the Space Force Air & Space Forces Magazine: Why the Air Force's Only Tugboat Lives on a Space Force Base The National Interest: Time to Change Course in the Middle East The National Interest: Israel's Tech Advantage Created Complacency CalendarMONDAY | OCTOBER 23 8 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "A Bold Agenda for the 2024 NATO Summit in Washington," with Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, chairwoman of the Ukrainian Parliament's Committee on the E.U. Integration of Ukraine; former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, founder and chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum; former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow, fellow at the Atlantic Council; Danylo Lubkivsky, director of the Kyiv Security Forum; former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Douglas Lute, board director at the Atlantic Council; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-bold-agenda-for-the-2024-nato-summit 9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "China's standing in the Global South: Takeaways from the Belt and Road Forum," with Oscar Meywa Otele, senior lecturer at the University of Nairobi; Sanusha Naidu, senior research associate at the Institute for Global Dialogue; David Shullman, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub; Michael Schuman, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub; and Victoria Chonn-Ching, Atlantic Council nonresident fellow https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/takeaways-from-the-belt-and-road-forum 10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: "The War in Israel and Gaza," with Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of foreign policy at Brookings; Natan Sachs, director of the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy; and Shibley Telhami, Brookings nonresident senior fellow https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-war-in-israel-and-gaza 10 a.m. — Hudson Institute discussion: "The Final Report of the U.S. Strategic Posture Commission," with Marshall Billingslea, commissioner of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the U.S.; Rebeccah Heinrichs, commissioner of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the U.S.; Madelyn Creedon, chairwoman of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the U.S.; Rose Gottemoeller, commissioner of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the U.S.; and Robert Scher, commissioner of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the U.S. https://www.hudson.org/events/discussion-commissioners-final-report-us-strategic-posture-commission 12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "NATO Summit Retrospective: 100 Days After Vilnius, What's Next?" with Zygimantas Pavilionis, member of the Lithuanian Seimas Committee of Foreign Affairs; Tomas Janeliunas, chief research officer at the Vilnius University Eastern Europe Studies Center; Peter Rough, director of the Hudson Center on Europe and Eurasia; and Luke Coffey, Hudson senior fellow https://www.hudson.org/events/nato-summit-retrospective 1 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation discussion on the "Future of the U.S.-Israel Alliance https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/event/future-the-us-israel-alliance 1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "The Outlook for Israel's Military Campaign Against Hamas," with Seth Jones, director of the CSIS International Security Program; Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program; and Emily Harding, deputy director of the CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/outlook-israels-military-campaign 2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies book discussion: Putin's 'Turn to the East' in the Xi Jinping Era, with co-editor Gilbert Rozman, professor of sociology at Princeton University, and co-editor Gaye Christoffersen https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-talk 3:30 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion on "Congress and Biden's Initial Success in Countering China's Challenges," with Robert Sutter, professor of practice of international affairs at GWU https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/ 3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: "Analyzing the Pentagon's 2023 China Military Power Report," with Assistant Defense Secretary for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner and Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia Michael Chase https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event 4 p.m. — Wilson Center's Cold War International History Project virtual book discussion: Dreams for a Decade: International Nuclear Abolitionism and the End of the Cold War, with author Stephanie Freeman, historian at the State Department's Office of the Historian https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/dreams-decade-international-nuclear-abolitionism 4:30 p.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute book discussion: Riding the Tiger: Vladimir Putin's Russia and the Uses of War, with author Leon Aron, AEI senior fellow; and Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies, AEI https://www.aei.org/events/vladimir-putins-russia TUESDAY | OCTOBER 24 10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: "Instability in the Sahel and West Africa: Implications for U.S. Policy," with testimony from Molly Phee, assistant secretary of state for African affairs https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/instability-in-the-sahel 10 a.m. S-116, U.S. Capitol — Senate Foreign Relations Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Jacob Lew to be U.S. ambassador to Israel http://foreign.senate.gov 10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: "The Coast Guard's Vital Role in the Indo-Pacific," with Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan https://www.hudson.org/events/coast-guard 10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: "Red Lines and Shifting Rules of Engagement: The Prospects of a Hezbollah-Israel War," with Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Carnegie Middle East Center; Hanin Ghaddar, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Jessica Obeid, MEI nonresident scholar; and Fadi Nicholas Nassar, MEI Lebanon fellow https://www.mei.edu/events/red-lines-and-shifting-rules-engagement 11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "Debriefing the US-EU Summit," with Frances Burwell, fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center; Charles Lichfield, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center; L. Daniel Mullaney, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center; and Jorn Fleck, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Europe Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/debriefing-the-us-eu-summit 2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Russia and the Global South," with Hanna Notte, CSIS nonresident associate; Mathieu Droin, CSIS visiting fellow; Michael Kimmage, CSIS nonresident senior associate; and Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/russia-and-global-south-hanna-notte 2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on "Friend and Ally: U.S. Support for Israel after Hamas' Barbaric Attack," with testimony from Barbara Leaf, assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, and Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/friend-and-ally-u-s-support-for-israel 2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: "From Mao to Xi: Chinese Foreign Policy Under Transformational Leaders," with Suisheng Zhao, director of the University of Denver's Center for China-U.S. Cooperation; David Bulman, assistant professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; and Carla Freeman, senior expert at the USIP China Program https://www.usip.org/events/mao-xi-chinese-foreign-policy 2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: "Implementing the 2022 National Defense Strategy," with Mara Karlin, performing the duties of deputy undersecretary of defense for policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/implementing-the-2022-national-defense-strategy 4 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute "Presidential Speech Series" discussion with Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy about his vision for the defense of the American homeland, including how that vision applies in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/presidential-speech-series-vivek-ramaswamy WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 25 8:40 a.m. 929 Long Bridge Drive, Arlington, Virginia — IDEEA, Inc. 2023 ComDef Conference on "Forging Indo-Pacific Partnerships," with William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, and Jedidiah Roya, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs https://ideea.com/comdef23/Registration.htm 10 a.m. 1763 N St. NW — Middle East Institute discussion: "The Critical Implications of Syria's Worsening Crisis: From Local to Global," with Yassin al Haj Saleh, Syrian writer and former political prisoner; Andrew Tabler, Washington Institute for Near East Policy senior fellow; Mona Yacoubian, U.S. Institute of Peace Middle East and North Africa Center vice president; and Charles Lister, MEI senior fellow https://www.mei.edu/events/critical-implications-syrias-worsening-crisis-local-global 11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual book discussion: Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine, including discussion of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the newly declared war between Israel and Hamas, with co-author and retired Army Gen. David Petraeus, former CIA director, and co-author Andrew Roberts https://conflictoct2023.splashthat.com/ 2 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Subcommittee hearing: "Assessing the Department of State's Strategy for Security in the Black Sea Region," with testimony from James O'Brien, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings 2:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee hearing: "The Submarine Industrial Base and Its Ability to Support the AUKUS Framework," with testimony from Mara Karlin, performing the duties of deputy undersecretary of defense for policy; Erik Raven, undersecretary of the Navy; and Vice Adm. William Houston, commander of Naval Submarine Forces https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/spf-hearing-submarine-industrial-base 2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee hearing: "The Global Engagement Center: Helping or Hurting U.S. Foreign Policy," with testimony from Daniel Kimmage, principal deputy coordinator of the State Department's Global Engagement Center https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/the-global-engagement-center | | | | "How does this end? Israel thrives, they survive. Hamas is destroyed. The Palestinian people have a better life. That's how this has to end. … So we're here today to give Israel what they need to do the job of destroying the modern-day version of Nazis, Hamas. We're here today to tell Iran, we're watching you. If this war grows, it's coming to your backyard. There won't be two fronts, there will be three." | | Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) speaking at a press conference in Tel Aviv as part of a bipartisan Senate delegation visiting Israel. |
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