Daily on Defense: US vows to hold Iran accountable, 2nd carrier strike group en route, Blinken at UN, Biden meets Aussie PM, Russia attacks in Ukraine

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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'WE WILL HOLD IRAN ACCOUNTABLE': The movement of additional U.S. ships and missile defense systems to the Middle East is a direct response to the increased threat to U.S. troops in the region posed by Iranian-backed proxy forces, the Pentagon said Monday.

The latest attack came early yesterday when U.S. troops at an outpost in southeastern Syria along the border with Iraq came under fire from an early morning drone strike. "I can confirm that there was an attempted drone attack at Al-Tanf in Syria," Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon's chief spokesman, told a group of reporters. "Two one-way attack drones taken down; no injuries to U.S. forces."

"We have seen this increase in rocket and UAV attacks against our bases and our facilities in Iraq and Syria," Ryder said. "We do know that there's been this uptick in drone and rocket attacks."

"Let me be very clear about U.S. Forces in Iraq and Syria. They're there for one purpose and one purpose only. It's to support local partners who are in the lead to achieve the enduring defeat of ISIS, for no other purpose," a senior defense official said at a later briefing. "So when we see this effort, which we will hold Iran accountable for and its proxies, to threaten and attack U.S. forces, what Iran is actually doing is giving space for ISIS to reconstitute and further destabilizing the region."

'THE ROAD LEADS BACK TO IRAN': The Pentagon said it lacks direct intelligence that Iran has ordered the increased attacks against U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, but it has no doubt Iran is responsible. "We know that these groups are groups that are backed by Iran," Ryder said. "We don't necessarily see that Iran has explicitly ordered them to take these kinds of attacks. That said, by virtue of the fact that they are supported by Iran, we will ultimately hold Iran responsible."

"And let's be clear about it, the road leads back to Iran. Iran funds, arms, equips, and trains militias and proxy forces all across the region that have consistently undermined the stability, cost in civilian life, and at a cost, the entire region of security and stability," the senior defense official said. "We always reserve the right to defend ourselves and will never hesitate to take action when needed to protect our forces and our interests overseas. Any response will come at a time and manner of our choosing."

SECOND CARRIER GROUP EN ROUTE: The Pentagon said there are no plans for the additional ships and missile defenses to be used for the defense of Israel. "These are systems intended for force protection of our forces in the region," Ryder said. "We recognize the potential for an increased escalation, and we want to do everything we need to do to ensure force protection for our troops while also, at the same time, deterring a broader regional conflict."

The second U.S. aircraft carrier strike group, led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, has only recently left Norfolk and is not expected to arrive on station until late next week.

"The Eisenhower Strike Group, which is still crossing the Atlantic right now, will operate for a time in the Med, and then she's going to go on through and into the Central Command area of responsibility, the Middle East, the Gulf region," NSC spokesman John Kirby said at the White House.

A single Lockheed Martin THAAD [Terminal High Altitude Area Defense] system and several Raytheon Patriot missile batteries are being deployed at undisclosed locations in friendly countries to increase the capability to protect U.S. troops.

The Pentagon clarified that last week's shootdown of cruise missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen was because the missiles were heading directly toward the U.S. Navy destroyer USS Carney.

"They were heading north along the Red Sea and could potentially have been heading to Israel," Ryder said. "But the bottom line is they were within the range of the ship, and the ship took appropriate action and took down … four land attack cruise missiles."

The Pentagon also said the additional troops that have been given "prepare to deploy" orders are a small contingent designed to help oversee and coordinate the various U.S. capabilities deployed to the region. "The additional forces that were placed on prepare-to-deploy orders are largely command-and-control units that would give the secretary, as well as the Central Command commander, options for various missions for forces that are already postured there," a senior military official said.

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Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre

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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to address the U.N. Security Council this morning to discuss the Israeli-Hamas conflict and the plight of the more than 200 hostages still being held in Gaza. Blinken's 10 a.m. remarks will be livestreamed at state.gov, as well as on the department's YouTube channel.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen will also address the Security Council ministerial as Israel appears on the verge of a ground invasion into the Gaza Strip in an effort to eradicate the Hamas terrorist group.

ALSO TODAY: President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden will welcome Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his partner Jodie Haydon to the White House at 6 p.m. ahead of tomorrow's bilateral meeting and state dinner.

The Australian press have dubbed tomorrow night's soiree the "Love Shack Dinner" because Biden has reportedly arranged for the band The B-52s to perform for his guest, who is described as "an avowed fan of 1980s music."

The two leaders are expected to focus on more serious topics ahead of tomorrow's joint press conference, discussing the AUKUS defense pact, climate change, and increased technology transfers from the U.S. to Australia.

BIDEN PREPARES TO HOST AUSTRALIAN STATE VISIT AMID CONGRESSIONAL DYSFUNCTION

MEANWHILE IN UKRAINE: While the world's attention has been diverted by the Israel-Hamas war, Russian forces in eastern Ukraine have been ordered to conduct a costly "counter-counteroffensive" in an effort to blunt Ukraine's slow but steady advances into Russian-occupied territory.

"Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk on October 23 and made a limited confirmed advance," the Institute for the Study of War reported in its latest battlefield assessment. "Geolocated footage published on October 22 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced southeast of Ivanivka," while "the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka."

The commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, told the Washington Post that the situation had "worsened significantly" with Russia attempting to encircle Kupyansk and reach the river, which cuts through the city.

The British Defense Ministry claimed in a weekend post that recent Russian assaults in Avdiivka "have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by the Ukrainian MoD."

"It is likely that Russia has suffered 150,000-190,000 permanent casualties (killed and permanently wounded) since the conflict began," according to U.K. intelligence, "with the total figure including temporarily wounded (recovered and due to return to the battlefield) in the region of 240,000-290,000."

PENTAGON: ARTILLERY SHELLS NOT DIVERTED: At a background briefing, a senior defense official disputed published reports that characterized plans to ship vital 155 mm artillery shells to Israel as diverting ammunition originally intended to go to Ukraine.

"As for 155 ammunition, what had happened prior to the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack, is some 155 had been withdrawn from the war reserve stockpile in Israel to replenish U.S. stocks in Europe," the senior defense official said. "Much of that has been redirected and provided to the Israel Defense Forces for their use."

"The United States can walk and chew gum at the same time," the official said. "So we're going to continue to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to defend its territory. And at the same time, we're ensuring that Israel has what it needs. Two very different operational environments with different levels of need and consultation. And we're continuing to prioritize both."

INDUSTRY WATCH: The State Department has approved three foreign military sales for three NATO allies and made the appropriate notification to Congress.

Finland is buying up to 150 AGM-88G Advanced Anti-Radiation Guided Missiles-Extended Range (AARGM-ERs) and related equipment for an estimated cost of $500 million.

Lithuania is contracting for up to 36 AIM-120C-8 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM) and related equipment for an estimated cost of $100 million.

And the United Kingdom will buy up to 3,000 Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles (JAGM) and related equipment for an estimated cost of $957.4 million.

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The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Biden prepares to host Australian state visit amid congressional dysfunction

Washington Examiner: House Republicans strike note of optimism ahead of closed-door speaker vote

Washington Examiner: Israel war: Israel evacuates residents near Lebanese border as forces ready for Gaza invasion

Washington Examiner: Israel war: Israel clashes with Hezbollah in cross-border attacks as concerns mount of wider conflict

Washington Examiner: Israel war: Son of Hamas founder says fight is about religion, 'driven by dark hatred toward a race'

Washington Examiner: Israel releases 'gruesome' footage of Hamas terrorist attacks

Washington Examiner: Israeli military uses 'Iron Sting' precision mortars for first time against Hamas

Washington Examiner: Israel war: IDF soldier killed in Gaza as Israel continues limited ground operations ahead of full invasion

Washington Examiner: Israel war: Border Patrol warned to be on lookout for Hamas and Hezbollah sympathizers

Washington Examiner: Biden team flags Beijing's human rights abuses that Gavin Newsom ducks on China tour

Washington Examiner: Antony Blinken to host China's top diplomat in Washington as crises accumulate

Washington Examiner: White House defends free speech at protests criticized for antisemitic comments

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Are the US and UK guilty of genocide against Nazi Germans?

Washington Post: U.S. readies plans for mass evacuations if Gaza war escalates

Wall Street Journal: Israel Steps Up Gaza Bombing, U.S. Officials Urge Caution Over Ground Offensive

New York Times: War Has Smashed Assumptions About Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

AP: 40 Years After Bombing That Killed Americans In Beirut, U.S. Troops Again Deploy East Of Mediterranean

Washington Post: Ukrainian spies with deep ties to CIA wage shadow war against Russia

Defense News: Britain Is More Bark Than Bite in Indo-Pacific, Lawmakers Warn

Washington Times: Pentagon Outlines Multiple Chinese Attack Plans For Taiwan

Air & Space Forces Magazine: US, S. Korea, Japan Hold First Ever Trilateral Air Exercise, with B-52 and Fighters

Breaking Defense: US-Australia Space Launch Accord Likely on Agenda at Biden-Albanese Meeting

SpaceNews: Space Force Identifying Priorities for Modernizing Spaceports

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lockheed Quits Air Force Tanker Competition, But Airbus Will Go It Alone

Washington Post: Russia presses countercounteroffensive in northeast Ukraine

AP: A price cap on Russian oil aims to starve Putin of cash. But it's largely been untested. Until now

Breaking Defense: Russia's Air Force 'Eating Into' Aircraft Lifespans, with No Easy Solution

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Report: How the Air Force Measures and Trains for Readiness Needs a Revamp

DefenseScoop: Arctic Strategy Implementation Plan Calls for Enhanced Military Comms, Sensing, and PNT

National Interest: America Must Find a Way to Ensure Israel Crushes Hamas without Destroying Gaza

Calendar

TUESDAY | OCTOBER 24

10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: "Instability in the Sahel and West Africa: Implications for U.S. Policy," with testimony from Molly Phee, assistant secretary of state for African affairs https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/instability-in-the-sahel

10 a.m. S-116, U.S. Capitol — Senate Foreign Relations Committee markup to vote on the nomination of Jacob Lew to be U.S. ambassador to Israel http://foreign.senate.gov

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: "The Coast Guard's Vital Role in the Indo-Pacific," with Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan https://www.hudson.org/events/coast-guard

10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: "Red Lines and Shifting Rules of Engagement: The Prospects of a Hezbollah-Israel War," with Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Carnegie Middle East Center; Hanin Ghaddar, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Jessica Obeid, MEI nonresident scholar; and Fadi Nicholas Nassar, MEI Lebanon fellow https://www.mei.edu/events/red-lines-and-shifting-rules-engagement

11:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "Debriefing the US-EU Summit," with Frances Burwell, fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center; Charles Lichfield, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center; L. Daniel Mullaney, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center; and Jorn Fleck, senior director of the Atlantic Council's Europe Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/debriefing-the-us-eu-summit

2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "Russia and the Global South," with Hanna Notte, CSIS nonresident associate; Mathieu Droin, CSIS visiting fellow; Michael Kimmage, CSIS nonresident senior associate; and Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/russia-and-global-south-hanna-notte

2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on "Friend and Ally: U.S. Support for Israel after Hamas' Barbaric Attack," with testimony from Barbara Leaf, assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, and Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/friend-and-ally-u-s-support-for-israel

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: "From Mao to Xi: Chinese Foreign Policy Under Transformational Leaders," with Suisheng Zhao, director of the University of Denver's Center for China-U.S. Cooperation; David Bulman, assistant professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies; and Carla Freeman, senior expert at the USIP China Program https://www.usip.org/events/mao-xi-chinese-foreign-policy

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: "Implementing the 2022 National Defense Strategy," with Mara Karlin, performing the duties of deputy undersecretary of defense for policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/implementing-the-2022-national-defense-strategy

4 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute "Presidential Speech Series" discussion with Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy about his vision for the defense of the American homeland, including how that vision applies in the Middle East https://www.hudson.org/events/presidential-speech-series-vivek-ramaswamy

WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 25

8:40 a.m. 929 Long Bridge Drive, Arlington, Virginia — IDEEA, Inc. 2023 ComDef Conference on "Forging Indo-Pacific Partnerships," with William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, and Jedidiah Roya, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs https://ideea.com/comdef23/Registration.htm

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual event: "The Way Forward: A Conversation with H.E. Ayman Safadi, foreign minister of Jordan," moderated by Jon Alterman; director, CSIS Middle East Program https://www.csis.org/events/way-forward-conversation

10 a.m. 1763 N St. NW — Middle East Institute discussion: "The Critical Implications of Syria's Worsening Crisis: From Local to Global," with Yassin al Haj Saleh, Syrian writer and former political prisoner; Andrew Tabler, Washington Institute for Near East Policy senior fellow; Mona Yacoubian, U.S. Institute of Peace Middle East and North Africa Center vice president; and Charles Lister, MEI senior fellow https://www.mei.edu/events/critical-implications-syrias-worsening-crisis-local-global

11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual book discussion: Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine, including discussion of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the newly declared war between Israel and Hamas, with co-author and retired Army Gen. David Petraeus, former CIA director, and co-author Andrew Roberts https://conflictoct2023.splashthat.com/

2 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Subcommittee hearing: "Assessing the Department of State's Strategy for Security in the Black Sea Region," with testimony from James O'Brien, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings

2:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee hearing: "The Submarine Industrial Base and Its Ability to Support the AUKUS Framework," with testimony from Mara Karlin, performing the duties of deputy undersecretary of defense for policy; Erik Raven, undersecretary of the Navy; and Vice Adm. William Houston, commander of Naval Submarine Forces https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/spf-hearing-submarine-industrial-base

2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee hearing: "The Global Engagement Center: Helping or Hurting U.S. Foreign Policy," with testimony from Daniel Kimmage, principal deputy coordinator of the State Department's Global Engagement Center https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/the-global-engagement-center

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 26

10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — National Endowment for Democracy, International Foundation for Electoral Systems, and the U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: "Expanding Ukraine's Democratic and Electoral Progress During War," with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor, vice president of the USIP's Russia and Europe Center; Olga Aivazovska, board chairwoman at OPORA; Peter Erben, IFES global principal adviser and senior country director for Ukraine; and Damon Wilson, NED president and CEO https://www.usip.org/events/expanding-ukraines-democratic-and-electoral-progress

10:30 a.m. S-116 — "Pen and pad" briefing for reporters by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Ben Cardin (D-MD) to discuss the recent Senate delegation travel to the Middle East and other foreign policy and national security priorities. Media can RSVP to Eric Harris at eric_harris@foreign.senate.gov

12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: "The Gaza War and U.S. Middle East Policy: Appraising the Biden Administration," with Dennis Ross, fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Emma Ashford, senior fellow at the Stimson Center; Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Steven Simon, senior research analyst at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/event/the-gaza-war-and-u-s-middle-east-policy

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 27

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual conference: "Transatlantic Defense in an Era of Strategic Competition" https://www.csis.org/events/transatlantic-defense-era-strategic-competition

10 a.m. — Fort Gordon, Georgia, will be officially renamed Fort Eisenhower at a ceremony attended by Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; retired Navy Adm. Michelle Howard, chairwoman, Congressional Naming Commission; and granddaughters of Army Gen. and President Dwight D. Eisenhower, Susan and Mary Jean Eisenhower https://www.facebook.com/ArmyCyberCoE

2:45 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: "Indo-Pacific Strategy," with Camille Dawson, deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-discussion

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"We submitted together because we believe all of it is important. Every dollar that we asked for for the supplemental funding is of an urgent nature, and we urge Congress to move on all of it as quickly as possible."
NSC spokesman John Kirby, pleading with Congress to approve all of President Joe Biden's $105 billion supplement budget request for Israel, Ukraine, and border security.
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