| NO WILL, 'NO WAY': With a record number of immigrants surging at the U.S.-Mexico border and Ukraine running low on both men and materiel in its existential fight against Russia, there is no doubt that both situations constitute legitimate emergencies. "The president has been very clear that he wants to make sure that we come to a bipartisan agreement, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. "And so, he's encouraged by the discussions that we've been seeing. There is progress that is happening." Yet despite the Biden administration's insistence it's willing to make major changes in border policy to secure aid for Ukraine, lawmakers have given up on resolving the issue until Congress reconvenes next month. "It seems like there's no way an immigration deal can be voted on in the Senate this week," CNN's Manu Raju suggested to Sen. John Thune (R-SD) yesterday. "That is a fact," Thune replied. "There's no way." "The big issue here is, Biden's willing to fund the key programs to restore the structure of law," Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) said on CNN, making a Democratic talking point, suggesting that the lack of a deal comes down to a cynical political calculation. "A lot of Republicans don't want this issue to be resolved because they want to keep it open for next year's November elections." The complaint, which you hear Democrats mutter under their breath, was articulated earlier this month by David Frum in The Atlantic. "Suppose Republicans did extract a big border concession in 2023; suppose they got everything they wanted. Then suppose their policy worked, and the flow of asylum seekers really did taper off dramatically in 2024," Frum wrote on Dec. 12. "Would not the result of that success be only to strengthen Biden's reelection chances and hurt Donald Trump's? Maybe the reason Democrats are having so much difficulty getting to 'yes' with Republicans is that many Republicans are committed to 'no,' regardless of what the offer is." BIDEN BORDER CRISIS SHATTERS RECORD WITH 14,509 ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ENCOUNTERED IN ONE DAY UKRAINE UNDER STRAIN: There is an increasing feeling of desperation in Ukraine, even as President Volodymyr Zelensky insists he's confident the United States will not abandon his country in its time of need. "I am confident that the U.S. will not let us down and that what we have agreed with the U.S. will be fulfilled," Zelensky said at an end-of-year news conference in Kyiv. But he also revealed that his military commanders are facing a manpower shortage after almost two years of intensive fighting and have asked for more troops for the front lines. "They proposed to mobilize an additional 450-500,000 people," Zelensky said. "This is a significant number. I told them I need more arguments to support this direction." "If we are talking about additional mobilization forces, we must find demobilization processes, and this should be done in a substantive way, with specifics and with great respect for the warriors," Zelensky said. "I would really like our military leadership to realize all these challenges. We cannot lose the bravest, most powerful people and their morale. I am grateful to them for their resilience," he added. CSIS: WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR UKRAINE: A new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the $64 billion in the White House supplemental request for Ukraine is a crucial lifeline for Ukraine as it heads into winter. "While U.S. officials negotiate and debate, Ukrainians anxiously await life-saving assistance. Absent additional U.S. funds, not only will Ukraine be disadvantaged on the battlefield, but its economy could also be driven to the verge of collapse," wrote CSIS analysts Elizabeth Hoffman, Shivani Vakharia, and Jaehyun Han, who noted the aid not only supports troops in the field but keeps Ukraine's government working, since nearly all domestic tax revenue has been diverted to military spending. "While Ukraine has adeptly managed the gap in support since the lapse, the government will have to contend with a dramatic shortfall if the United States does not provide additional direct budget support," the CSIS experts wrote. In November, Zelensky signed the 2024 state budget. Revenues are set at $49 billion, while expenditures total $93 billion, with $46.4 billion of that going to the military. Without external funding to bridge the gap, Ukraine will need to employ monetary financing by transferring central bank funds to the state which would spur further inflation and increased interest rates. For context, the current key interest rate in Ukraine is already 16%, and inflation, while declining, stood at 8.6% year over year in August 2023. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will take a holiday break beginning Friday, Dec. 22 and resuming Jan. 2, 2024. While we're gone, you can still get the latest defense and national security news from the Washington Examiner here. Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what's going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue! HAPPENING TODAY: The U.N. Security Council will try again this morning to draft a resolution calling for a pause in the fighting in Gaza to allow more humanitarian aid to be delivered to beleaguered civilians. The 15-member council failed yesterday to come up with language that would not be vetoed by the United States and adjourned after a vote was postponed for a second time. A compromise sponsored by the United Arab Emirates would have replaced the call for a "cease-fire" with a call for an "urgent suspension of hostilities to allow safe and unhindered humanitarian access, and for urgent steps toward a sustainable cessation of hostilities," according to the Washington Post. The Biden administration has vetoed several previous ceasefire resolutions, and the White House says it won't support a "permanent ceasefire." "It would simply validate what Hamas did on the 7th of October. It would leave them in power in Gaza, which is unacceptable to us and to our Israeli friends. And, of course, it would give them a much longer timeline to prepare and plan additional attacks," NSC spokesman John Kirby said yesterday. "We do support smaller, more localized, more targeted humanitarian pauses to get hostages out and to get more aid in." BIDEN'S ISRAEL PROBLEM: A New York Times/Siena College poll, which asked registered voters, "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?" found overwhelming disapproval 57%-33%. Asked who would do a better job, Biden or former President Donald Trump, 46% said Trump, 38% said Biden, and 11% said they didn't know. The president is facing division within his party, and not just with the far-left progressive wing. Six prominent Democrats sent a letter to Biden Monday urging him to use his leverage to force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to shift Israel's strategy to better protect innocent noncombatants. "The mounting civilian death toll and humanitarian crisis are unacceptable and not in line with American interests; nor do they advance the cause of security for our ally Israel. We also believe it jeopardizes efforts to destroy the terrorist organization Hamas and secure the release of all hostages," wrote Reps. Seth Moulton (D-MA), Jason Crow (D-CO), Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA), Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI). "From our positions on the Intelligence, Armed Services, and Foreign Affairs Committees, we have consistently pushed for Israel to shift its military strategy—there has been no significant change," the lawmakers wrote. "We know from personal and often painful experience that you can't destroy a terror ideology with military force alone. And it can, in fact, make it worse. Accordingly, we urge you to continue to use all our leverage to achieve an immediate and significant shift of military strategy and tactics in Gaza." ISRAEL-HAMAS WAR SET TO TAKE CENTER STAGE IN DEMOCRATIC HOUSE PRIMARIES NEXT YEAR TUBERVILLE'S FINAL DEFEAT: With more than 20 Republican senators having already left town for the holidays, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) had little trouble getting unanimous consent to confirm the 11 remaining military promotions that had been blocked by Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). The vote marked the failure of Tuberville's nearly yearlong campaign to force the Pentagon to rescind its policy that reimburses travel expenses and grants paid leave to facilitate servicemembers based in states with abortion restrictions to seek medical services elsewhere. Democrats hailed the end of the holds, which they said punished military families for a policy they had no hand in making. "About damn time!" Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) posted on X. "Tuberville's blockade was dangerous and did permanent damage to the military. It will be remembered as a shameful act of obstruction." Among the generals who now get their fourth star are three combatant commanders: Air Force Gen. Gregory Guillot to lead U.S. Northern Command; Air Force Gen. Timothy Haugh to head U.S. Cyber Command; and Space Force Gen. Stephen Whiting to take over U.S. Space Command. "For months I have been fighting to end Tuberville's reckless blockade on military promotions — now we've finally done it," Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) posted on X. "I hope this means the days of playing politics with our servicemembers are behind us." GALLAGHER'S 'MacGYVER SOLUTION': Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, has written to Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, recommending innovative solutions to counter Xi Jinping's historic military build-up and threats to Taiwan. "Recent war games simulating a conflict with China over Taiwan show that the United States would run out of long-range, precision-guided munitions in less than one week," Gallagher wrote, suggesting two "MacGyver-like" improvised stopgap measures. One would combine old Harpoon anti-ship missiles currently in the U.S. inventory with land-based systems in American or Taiwanese stocks. He also suggests fitting powered JDAMs [Joint Direct Attack Munitions] with 500-pound bombs so they can serve as cheap cruise missiles. "Today's challenges must force us to adapt and think outside the box. If delays are preventing vital weapons from being delivered to Taiwan, we must be creative in putting together capabilities – using weapons and assets already in our inventory – that we can promptly deliver to Taiwan," Gallagher argued. RISK OF WAR WITH CHINA IS REAL AND RISING The Rundown Washington Examiner: Biden border crisis shatters record with 14,509 illegal immigrants encountered in one day Washington Examiner: Abbott's Texas illegal immigration crackdown challenged by ACLU as Biden DOJ mulls action Washington Examiner: McConnell invokes Trump appointment of wife in response to anti-immigrant rhetoric Washington Examiner: Capitol police arrest protesters who illegally overtook rotunda to demand Gaza ceasefire Washington Examiner: US needs to be 'prepared to act' militarily against Iran: Former CENTCOM commander Washington Examiner: Three years in, poll shows most voters still underestimate Biden border crisis Washington Examiner: Senate report claims US terrorist watchlists could violate a traveler's rights Washington Examiner: US and Denmark agree to defense cooperation agreement Washington Examiner: Israeli president signals openness to second temporary ceasefire for hostages Washington Examiner: Israel-Hamas war set to take center stage in Democratic House primaries next year Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Military Strikes On Houthis To Deter Red Sea Attacks CNN: How U.S. Warships Are Shooting Down Houthi Drones In The Red Sea, And What Might Come Next Politico: A $2M Missile vs. a $2,000 Drone: Pentagon Worried Over Cost of Houthi Attacks New York Times: No major Middle East power has joined the U.S.-led naval effort to deter the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. Wall Street Journal: Israel Adjusts Battle Tactics in Gaza's South to Target Hamas Leadership Breaking Defense: With 7-Ton Resupply of Water to Troops in Gaza, IDF Shows Precision Airdrop Capability AP: Putin ratchets up military pressure on Ukraine as he expects Western support for Kyiv to dwindle New York Times: In A Tough Year On Land, Drones Give Ukraine Some Success At Sea The Atlantic: Can Ukraine Clean Up Its Defense Industry Fast Enough? Reuters: Philippines President Says Diplomatic Efforts With China Heading 'In Poor Direction' Task & Purpose: US Conducts First Airstrike in Somalia in Nearly 4 Months AP: North Korea and Russia clash with US, South Korea and allies over Pyongyang's latest missile launch Air & Space Forces Magazine: Congress Asks Department of the Air Force for 2050 Force Design Plan. What Will It Mean? Defense News: Replicator: An Inside Look at the Pentagon's Ambitious Drone Program Defense One: Northrop Gears Up to Triple Production of E-7 Radar DefenseScoop: DOD Looking to Award Another $280M for Microelectronics Projects Military.com: Military Focusing on JROTC Programs as Chances to Paint Picture of Service to Gen Z Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Two-Star to Face Court-Martial For Sexual Assault Charges Federal News Network: New Decision Advantage Tool Will Change How Air Force Makes Investment Decisions Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-2 Returning for Rose Bowl Flyover on New Year's After Missing Last Year Calendar WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 20 10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee committee hearing: "The Future of Arms Control and Deterrence," with testimony from Bonnie Jenkins, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, and John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy http://foreign.senate.gov 1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program webcast: "Aid to Ukraine and the Future of the War," with Michael Kofman, senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Max Bergmann, director, CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center; Maria Snegovaya, senior fellow, CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Michael Kimmage, senior associate (non-resident), CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/aid-ukraine-and-future-war-michael-kofman | | | | "Well, it strikes me that it didn't bother him when he appointed Elaine Chao as secretary of transportation." | | Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), responding to a question about former President Donald Trump's comment that illegal immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country." |
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