| WHERE THERE'S SMOKE, THERE'S NO FIREPOWER: The reports from the front are growing increasingly dire as Ukrainian soldiers, running low on artillery shells and air defense missiles, are forced to ration their firepower against a Russian army resupplied by North Korea.
"This U.S.-provided M109 Paladin Howitzers near Bakhmut is often silent because they don’t have enough shells to target the Russians," a Ukrainian commander told CNN's Fred Pleitgen in a report that aired yesterday. "Finally, resupply does arrive," Pleitgen reported, "but it’s only four rounds. And this type of ammo won’t hurt the Russians much. … They’re smoke rounds. These shells will barely explode on impact. It’s almost like firing cannon balls in medieval times."
"But the commander says, sometimes, it’s all they can do. 'Every shell that is suitable for the Paladin, we use,' he says. 'It’s better than no shells.'"
"We’ve gotten to the point where the crisis for Ukraine is not theoretical, it’s not perspective, it is here and now," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) said at a Capitol Hill news conference yesterday. "Reports suggest that on some days, Ukraine is firing one-quarter to one-half the number of rounds that the Russian military is. That is a recipe for disaster."
UKRAINE REFOCUSES ON DEFENSE AND DEEP STRIKES
AUSTIN: 'WE MUST NOT WAVER': At yesterday's virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was in the uncomfortable position of urging the 50 other nations on the video conference to make up for the inability of the U.S. to supply the ammunition Ukraine desperately needs as Russian President Vladimir Putin has ramped up attacks in an effort to take advantage of the gap in U.S. support.
"Putin hopes that missiles and drones will demoralize the Ukrainian people and break the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian military," Austin said. "So I urge this group to dig deep to provide Ukraine with more lifesaving ground-based air defense systems and interceptors."
"If we lose our nerve, if we flinch, if we fail to deter other would-be aggressors, we will only invite even more bloodshed and chaos," Austin warned. "We must not waver in our support for Ukraine."
Following the virtual session, Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, confirmed that shortages of ammunition are affecting Ukrainian military capability.
"We have heard reports from the Ukrainian government … from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and general staff that they are concerned that they believe that units do not have the stocks and the stores of ammunition that they require," Wallander told reporters. "The Ukrainians have reported that they are grateful for that steady provision of capabilities. But they have reported that the changed pace and volume of [arms] packages in the fall did affect their planning and their operations."
SCHUMER: A FULCRUM MOMENT: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) remains frustrated that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who is being egged on by his hard-line Freedom Caucus as well as former President Donald Trump, is refusing to compromise on a demand that a House bill, H.R. 2, form the basis of any agreement on border security before Ukraine aid can be passed.
"As I’ve said to him repeatedly and publicly until I’m blue in the face, you can’t do this unless it’s bipartisan, and that’s not a bipartisan solution," Schumer said yesterday. "Sen. McConnell and I both believe that the Senate moving first with hopefully as good a margin as we can get will then help us prevail upon the House to do something bipartisan as well."
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is urging House Republicans to take the deal being negotiated in the Senate, which he has called "the most substantial border security policy in 30 years," even though no one has yet seen the text of the bill. In fact, McConnell argued, this might be the best last chance to get a comprehensive reform.
"I think this is the ideal time to do it. I think all of you know the politics around here. If this were not divided government, we wouldn’t have an opportunity to do anything about the border," he said. "In fact, I don’t think we’d get 60 votes for any border plan if we had a fully Republican government. So, this is a unique opportunity where a divided government has given us an opportunity to get an outcome."
UKRAINE FUNDING RUNS INTO NEW SENATE ROADBLOCK OVER NONLETHAL AID
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Heritage Foundation is releasing the 10th edition of its Index of Military Strength, an annual report card on how the U.S. military is doing, and this year there are a lot of failing grades.
"Most Americans do not realize the sorry state the U.S. military is in. Following years of overextension, deployments, and a lack of prioritizing defense spending on what is needed to fight and win America's wars, the military is far from the strong force built by Ronald Reagan to defeat the Soviets," the report concluded. "With adversaries growing in strength and causing chaos in nearly every corner of the globe, coupled with a new Cold War with China, this weakness only makes the world more dangerous. But American military power can be restored if the urgency is felt, and the right actions are taken now.”
An in-person and virtual discussion is set for 12 p.m., with the title "A Decade of Decline: The Need to Restore America's Military Power," which will feature Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg; Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development; and former Green Beret Joe Kent.
US STRIKES BACK IN IRAQ: On a day when the Pentagon acknowledged two additional traumatic brain injuries caused by Saturday missile strikes against U.S. troops in Iraq, the U.S. struck back at the Iranian proxies behind the attacks just after midnight Iraq time.
"U.S. CENTCOM forces conducted unilateral airstrikes against three facilities used by Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia group and other Iran-affiliated groups in Iraq," the U.S. Central Command said in a press release. "These strikes targeted KH headquarters, storage, and training locations for rocket, missile, and one-way attack UAV capabilities."
"These precision strikes are in direct response to a series of escalatory attacks against U.S. and Coalition personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-sponsored militias," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement. "The President and I will not hesitate to take necessary action to defend them and our interests. We do not seek to escalate conflict in the region. We are fully prepared to take further measures to protect our people and our facilities. We call on these groups and their Iranian sponsors to immediately cease these attacks."
"In terms of the personnel that were injured in the attack over the weekend, at the time, we were tracking two U.S. service personnel that suffered TBI," Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said yesterday. "Since then, we have identified two additional service members for a total of four. To my knowledge, all have returned to duty at this point."
US HITS PRO-IRANIAN MILITIA IN IRAQ OVER MISSILE ATTACKS
SIGNS THE HOUTHIS MAY BE DEGRADED: The Pentagon is not declaring victory yet, but it continues to eliminate missiles, radars, and storage facilities methodically that the Houthi rebels in Yemen have been using to target ships in the Red Sea.
"I can tell you that since Jan. 11, we assessed that we’ve destroyed or degraded over 25 missile launch and deployment facilities, more than 20 missiles, plus we’ve struck unmanned aerial, vehicle, coastal radar, and air surveillance capabilities, as well as weapon storage areas with good effects," Ryder said at yesterday's press briefing. "In terms of the totality of their capabilities … it’s fairly significant."
"When you look at the missile launch and deployment facilities, missiles, you’re talking over 50 when you add those numbers together, in addition to the other capabilities. So, clearly a degradation of capability," Ryder said.
The United States and United Kingdom conducted a second major round of strikes Monday, and the U.S. continues to take out "onesies and twosies" of missiles as they are spotted preparing for launch, the latest such attack coming this morning when two Houthi missiles aimed at the Red Sea were destroyed.
Ryder noted the last Houthi attack on a ship in the Red Sea was on Jan. 18, six days ago. "They do maintain some capability, so it’s not out of the question that there could be additional strikes," he said, stressing that the U.S. is not interested in engaging in prolonged war with the Houthis.
"We’ve been very clear that our single focus is on ensuring that the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are safe and secure and that these attacks against the international community stop," Ryder said. "If they stop conducting these attacks, then there’ll be no further need to take these kinds of actions."
SWEDEN A STEP CLOSER: Turkey's parliament has approved Sweden's bid to join NATO, by a vote of 287 votes to 55, with four abstentions, leaving Hungary the only NATO ally not to have ratified Sweden’s accession to the alliance.
"We welcome the Turkish parliament's vote approving Sweden's application to join @NATO," national security adviser Jake Sullivan posted on X. "Sweden is a strong, capable defense partner whose membership in NATO will make the U.S. and the Alliance safer and stronger."
Sullivan met yesterday with his Swedish counterpart, Henrik Landerholm, and "underscored the United States' strong support for Sweden joining NATO as soon as possible," according to a White House readout.
"Turkey's approval of Sweden's accession to NATO finally came after years of haggling. Its hesitation for not approving it when Sweden first applied was based entirely on attempting to leverage gains from the United States — namely F-16 jets in return for approving Swedish membership," said Sinan Ciddi, a Turkey scholar with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. "It is unclear whether Washington will now proceed with the sale. Other than frustrating the entire NATO alliance and further embittering its relationship with the U.S., Ankara has gotten very little out of holding up NATO's expansion for this long."
TURKEY APPROVES SWEDEN'S ENTRANCE INTO NATO AFTER 20-MONTH DELAY
SENTINEL UNDER SCRUTINY: As reported by Bloomberg last week, the Air Force's new Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile, designed to replace Cold War-era Minuteman III, is now estimated to cost at least 37% more than the previously projected $96 billion, which is triggering a Pentagon inquiry.
"That’s a lot of money. How concerned is the Pentagon that this key program may be going off the rails and that you may have to spend money to upgrade the current Minuteman III program?" Bloomberg's Tony Capaccio grilled Ryder at yesterday's briefing.
"You’re correct," Ryder replied. "As I understand it, last week, the Air Force and DOD did notify Congress that the Sentinel program had exceeded initial cost projections."
"As a result of that, DOD will conduct a robust review to determine what caused the cost growth and the way ahead for the program," he added. "As our senior leaders have said publicly before, Sentinel is one of the department’s largest, most complex programs."
"Costs for the Sentinel may increase to as much as $162 million per missile when calculated in 2020 dollars, up from $118 million each," Bloomberg reported, citing the new estimate sent to Congress. "Those costs include new projections for expenditures such as the construction of silos and launch control centers, and put the program's overall price tag at $131.5 billion in today's dollars."
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: US hits pro-Iranian militia in Iraq over missile attacks
Washington Examiner: Turkey approves Sweden's entrance into NATO after 20-month delay
Washington Examiner: Ukraine funding runs into new Senate roadblock over nonlethal aid
Washington Examiner: Ukraine refocuses on defense and deep strikes
Washington Examiner: Texas installs more razor wire at border as GOP rages over SCOTUS ruling
Washington Examiner: Chip Roy delivers message to Supreme Court after ruling Biden administration can remove razor wire: 'Go to hell'
Defense News: Senators Question Legality Of Biden's Houthi Strikes In Yemen
Wall Street Journal: Iranian Military Technology And Advisers Aid Houthi Attacks In Red Sea, Officials Say
New York Times: How Houthi Militia Honed Its Tactics To Rattle the U.S.
New York Times: Russian Missiles Hit Ukrainian Cities Amid Fears Over Air Defenses
Breaking Defense: Getting Ahead: Ukraine Defense Contact Group Forms 2 Coalitions
Bloomberg: RTX Slow to Deliver Missiles to Defend US Carriers From China
Air & Space Forces Magazine: F-35 Deliveries On Hold Until Summer, But JPO May Accept Jets Without Proven TR-3
The War Zone: MQ-9 Reapers Were Ready to Blow Up a Rocket Booster Off California
Air & Space Forces Magazine: When Will Space Force Guardians Be Able to Work Part-Time?
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Quantum Software Could Help Solve USAF's Parts Challenges
Inside Defense: Directed-Energy Supply Chains Need to Be Strengthened, per DOD Official
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lawmakers Grill Nominee to Be Air Force's No. 2 Civilian on Chinese Spy Balloon, Border Wall
Air Force Times: Helicopter Pilot Details Final Days of HH-60 Rescue Ops in Afghanistan
Air Force Times: Opinion: Think the Sentinel Nuclear Program Is Pricey? Try Living Without It.
THE CALENDAR:
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 24
8:55 a.m. 1700 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement Homeland Security Conference, with Shonnie Lyon, director of the Department of Homeland Security's Office of Biometric Identity Management, and Lisa Schleder-Kirkpatrick, deputy assistant Coast Guard commandant for capability https://www.idga.org/events-homelandsecurityweek/agenda-m
9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Melissa Dalton to be Air Force undersecretary; Douglas Schmidt to be director of operational test and evaluation, Defense Department; and Aprille Ericsson to be assistant Defense secretary for science and technology. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. S-116, U.S. Capitol — Senate Foreign Relations Committee markup of S.2003, to authorize the Secretary of State to provide additional assistance to Ukraine using assets confiscated from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and other sovereign assets of the Russian Federation and to vote on the nominations of Kurt Campbell to be deputy secretary of State, Cardell Richardson Sr. to be inspector general of the State Department, Nicole Shampaine for the rank of ambassador during her tenure of service as U.S. representative to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Sean Maloney to be representative of the U.S. to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Jeffrey Prescott to be U.S. representative to the United Nations Agencies for Food and Agriculture, Charlie Crist to be representative of the U.S. on the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization, Joann Lockard to be ambassador to Burkina Faso, and Robert Gioia to be a commissioner on the part of the U.S. on the International Joint Commission, U.S. and Canada http://foreign.senate.gov
10:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Analyzing Israel’s Strategy in Gaza,” with Audrey Kurth Cronin, director of the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology; Eyal Hulata, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies; Shashank Joshi, defense editor at the Economist; and Natan Sachs, director of the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/analyzing-israels-strategy-in-gaza
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The Israel-Gaza Conflict and Threat of Regional War,” with former U.S. Envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross, fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
11 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Reinforcing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” with Yuki Tatsumi, Stimson Center senior fellow; Greg Brown, Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst; Lisa Curtis, Center for a New American Security senior fellow; and James Przystup, Hudson Institute Japan chairman https://www.hudson.org/events/reinforcing-free-open-indo-pacific
11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies Aerospace Security Project and Defense Budget Analysis in-person and virtual discussion: "Air Force Priorities in an Era of Strategic Competition," with Kristyn Jones, performing the duties of the undersecretary of the Air Force; Lt. Gen. Richard Moore, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs; Kari Bingen, director, CSIS Aerospace Security Project; and Seamus Daniels, fellow, Defense Budget Analysis https://www.csis.org/events/air-force-priorities-era-strategic-competition
11 a.m. — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs virtual book discussion: The Lost Peace: How the West Failed to Prevent a Second Cold War, with author Richard Sakwa, emeritus professor of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent https://calendar.gwu.edu/event
12 p.m. 208 Massachusetts Ave. NE — Heritage Foundation in-person and virtual discussion: "A Decade of Decline: The Need to Restore America's Military Power," with Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS); retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg; Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development; and former Green Beret Joe Kent https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/decade-decline
12 p.m. — Jewish Democratic Council of America virtual discussion: “Israel and Gaza: What Comes Next?” with Michael Koplow, chief policy officer at the Israel Policy Forum, and David Makovsky, fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy https://www.mobilize.us/jewishdems/event
1 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: "Solving Operational Problems with Today's Technology: Launching the Apex Conference Series," with Aditi Kumar, deputy director for strategy, policy, and national security partnerships, Defense Innovation Unit; Margaret Palmieri, deputy chief digital artificial intelligence officer, Department of Defense; Shyam Sankar, chief technology officer, Palantir; Scott Forney, president, General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems; Thomas Browning, assistant secretary of defense for mission capabilities; Jimmy Jones, STITCHES Warfighter Application team lead, U.S. Air Force; Sally de Swart, managing director, Clarion Defense and Security; Bryan Clark, senior fellow and director, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology; and Vago Muradian, editor, Defense and Aerospace Report https://www.eventbrite.com/e/solving-operational-problems
3 p.m. — Middle East Forum virtual discussion: "Israel Insider," with Alex Selsky, senior adviser, MEF Israel Victory Project, and lecturer at Hadassah Academic College https://us02web.zoom.us
4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close Combat in the Twenty-First Century, with author Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, and Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project https://www.csis.org/events/arms-future-book-talk-jack-watling
4 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University discussion: “Japan and the World — Japan-Europe Relations, the Indo-Pacific, and the Russia-Ukraine War,” with Bonnie Glaser, managing director at the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific Program; Ben Goldberg, senior foreign affairs analyst at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research; Jeffrey Hornung, adjunct faculty at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service; and Adam Liff, visiting chairman in modern and contemporary Japanese politics and foreign policy at Georgetown University https://www.eventbrite.com/e/japan-europe-relations
6 p.m. — New America virtual discussion: “The Challenges to Security in 2024,” with Peter Bergen, vice president and director of future security at New America, and Daniel Rothenberg, senior fellow at New America https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/events
11 p.m. University of Hawaii, Manoa — East-West Center in Washington discussion: “The State of U.S.-China Relations,” with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns https://www.eastwestcenter.org/events/ambassador-burns-state-us-china-relations
THURSDAY | JANUARY 25
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies in-person and virtual event "PONI Live Debate: U.S. Nuclear Targeting," with James Acton; Jessica Mathews, chairwoman and co-director, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Heather Williams, director, Project on Nuclear Issues and senior fellow, International Security Program, CSIS; and Franklin Miller, senior adviser (nonresident), International Security Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/poni-live-debate-us-nuclear-targeting
6:30 p.m. Grand Rapids, Michigan — Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library and Museum and Gerald R. Ford Presidential Foundation book discussion: UFO: The Inside Story of the U.S. Government's Search for Alien Life Here — and Out There, with author Garrett Graff https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | JANUARY 26
12:30 p.m. — Arms Control Association and Physicists Coalition for Nuclear Threat Reduction virtual discussion: "The Sentinel ICBM program: Risks, Costs, and Alternatives," with Sebastien Philippe, research scholar, Princeton University Program on Science and Global Security; Sharon Weiner, associate professor, American University School of International Service; Frank von Hippel, professor emeritus, Princeton Program on Science and Global Security; and Zia Mian, physicist and co-director, Princeton University Program on Science and Global Security https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
| | | | "I think this is the ideal time to do it. I think all of you know the politics around here. If this were not divided government, we wouldn't have an opportunity to do anything about the border. In fact, I don't think we'd get 60 votes for any border plan if we had a fully Republican government." | | Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) at a news conference Tuesday |
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