| PUTIN: RUSSIA IS ADVANCING IN UKRAINE: In a live, televised, nationwide address, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed his country is united in its support for the war in Ukraine and that the Russian military has seized the “initiative” and is advancing in a number of areas, according to an English translation from the BBC. The annual state-of-the-nation address, delivered before an audience of lawmakers and other top officials in Moscow, comes two weeks before Russia’s 2024 presidential election, which the 71-year-old Putin is poised to win handily. Putin described the invasion of Ukraine, which he continues to call the “special military operation,” as necessary to defend Russia's sovereignty, and he called for a moment of silence to honor the tens of thousands of troops killed going through what he called "the mincer of war." Putin also made a veiled threat after French President Emmanuel Macron said at a gathering of European leaders in Paris on Monday that sending Western ground troops into Ukraine in the future is not "ruled out." "They make no bones about saying that Russia is about to attack Europe. We understand this is total nonsense. Meanwhile, they are selecting targets for their strikes on our territory, selecting the most effective weapons, they are talking about sending NATO military contingents to Ukraine," Putin said. "They need to finally understand that we too have weapons … that can strike targets on their territory. And everything that they’re thinking of now, everything that they used to threaten us, all this is a real threat of nuclear weapons being used, which spell destruction of civilization." NATO ALLIES PUSH BACK AFTER MACRON FLOATS IDEA OF SENDING TROOPS TO UKRAINE UKRAINE IS FALLING BACK: Independent analyses from two Washington think tanks confirmed that Russian troops are advancing but said so far their gains are slow and continue to come at a heavy price. "The seizure of Avdiivka has allowed Russian forces to press on positions that Ukrainian forces have manned for a shorter period than Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka or further west, and Russian forces are likely sustaining a high operational tempo to try to exploit this tactical opportunity," the Institute for the Study of War said in it Feb. 27 assessment. While Russia may be able to capture a few small settlements west and northwest of Avdiivka, terrain and a large body of water will give Ukraine forces the ability to reestablish defensive lines, the ISW predicted. "This difficult terrain will likely constrain further Russian tactical gains and allow Ukrainian forces to establish prepared defensive positions that will likely prompt the eventual culmination of the current Russian offensive." A separate battlefield assessment from the Hudson Institute concluded Russia "has shifted its focus toward "inflicting maximum pressure and expanding its gains" in areas surrounding Avdiivka. "Russian forces are mounting offensive efforts around Kharkiv and Luhansk. This is a troubling development, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces lack depth in their lines of defense, while Russian engineering units make it easier for their side to absorb offensive blows, as they did during Ukraine's summer 2023 counteroffensive," wrote Can Kasapoglu, a senior fellow at Hudson. But Kasapoglu noted that Ukraine’s air defenses and asymmetric strikes continue to be very effective: "In the 10 days prior to February 27, the Ukrainian Armed Forces downed 10 Russian flyers [fighter jets], including a Beriev intelligence aircraft. The loss of this strategic platform will no doubt sting in Moscow." "On February 20, the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted a HIMARS rocket strike on a training ground in Donetsk Oblast. The following day, Ukraine successfully hit a Russian military training facility in occupied Kherson Oblast," the assessment said. "Recently released footage suggests that this strike may have killed around 60 servicemen from different Russian units." US PUBLIC SUPPORT ERODING ALONG PARTY LINES: While $60 billion in desperately needed Ukraine aid is being blocked by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), a new poll suggests where the public stands on further help for Ukraine is another largely partisan divide. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, conducted two weeks ago, found that about 40% of Democrats say the U.S. is spending too little on aid to Ukraine, a big jump from 17% in November. Most Republicans are more skeptical, with 55% saying the U.S. is spending too much on Ukraine aid. "The poll shows that two years after Russia's initial invasion, the Ukraine war has become a partisan dividing line," the Associated Press said in its reporting on the poll results. "Majorities of Democrats think it's extremely or very important to prevent Russia from seizing more Ukrainian territory, to negotiate a permanent ceasefire between the two countries, help Ukraine regain its land and provide general aid to its military, while less than half of Republicans and Independents agree." DEMOCRATS SAY JOHNSON LEGACY ON THE LINE WITH UKRAINE AID VOTE: 'HISTORY IS WATCHING' Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE HAPPENING TODAY: AUSTIN IN THE HOT SEAT: If you're looking for some fireworks on Capitol Hill this morning, your best bet might be the 10 a.m. hearing of the House Armed Services Committee in which Republicans are preparing to rake Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin over the hibachi as it questions the "circumstances surrounding the failure to communicate his absence to the President in a timely manner during his recent hospitalization" and the subsequent internal Pentagon investigation, which found no "indication of ill intent or an attempt to obfuscate." Austin's command performance was "requested" by House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL), whose opening remarks will set the tone for the hearing, at which Austin is expected to take full responsibility for lack of transparency about his prostate cancer diagnosis and subsequent hospitalization. Austin apologized for mishandling the situation at a Feb 1. press briefing, calling his cancer diagnosis "a gut punch" and admitting, "Frankly, my first instinct was to keep it private." "We did not handle this right, and I did not handle this right. I should have told the president about my cancer diagnosis," Austin said. "I should have also told my team and the American public. And I take full responsibility. I apologize to my teammates and to the American people." "We were led to believe your 30-day internal review would shed light on the matter," Rogers will say, according to a portion of his remarks, obtained by the Washington Examiner. "But it includes no explanation of why the president and his staff were left in the dark. It makes no recommendations to improve communication with the White House. And unsurprisingly, it holds no one accountable. We appreciate your desire to protect your subordinates, but it's important in a democracy that public officials are held accountable when mistakes are made. This administration has gone to great lengths to avoid accountability whenever possible. But this is a matter of national security, and someone needs to be held accountable." LLOYD AUSTIN TO FACE HOUSE GRILLING OVER SECRETIVE HOSPITALIZATION ALSO TODAY: BIDEN AND TRUMP VISIT THE BORDER: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both plan appearances at the U.S.-Mexico border to highlight their widely divergent plans to get the crisis at the border under control. Biden will spend just four hours in Brownsville, Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon, when he will first visit the busiest corridor for illegal crossings in recent years and then receive an operational briefing from U.S. Customs and Border Protection, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Biden will deliver remarks at 4:40 p.m. before returning to Washington tonight. Trump will be 325 miles away at Eagle Pass, Texas, the corridor that is experiencing the largest number of crossings. In a statement released by his campaign, Trump vowed to "wage war on Biden's border crisis once he returns to the Oval Office." "President Trump will shut down Biden’s border disaster. He will again end catch-and-release, restore remain-in-Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud," the statement said. "President Trump will sign an executive order ending automatic citizenship for the children of illegal aliens. … In addition to restoring strong border security, President Trump will deploy all necessary military assets, including the U.S. Navy to impose a full naval embargo on the cartels." "Trump is expected to speak from a state park that has become a Republican symbol of defiance against the federal government's immigration enforcement practices," according to the Associated Press. IMMIGRATION BECOMES NO. 1 CONCERN FOR VOTERS AS BIDEN AND TRUMP HEAD TO BORDER CRISIS AVERTED FOR NOW: In a rare bipartisan statement from all the relevant parties, Republican and Democratic congressional leaders announced an agreement that will avert a partial government shutdown tomorrow and hopefully pass several key budget bills next week. "Negotiators have come to an agreement on six bills: Agriculture-FDA, Commerce-Justice and Science, Energy and Water Development, Interior, Military Construction-VA, and Transportation-HUD," said the statement from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), along with the leaders of the House and Senate budget committees. "This package of six full-year appropriations bills will be voted on and enacted prior to March 8." "We broke the omnibus fever in Washington, where the Democrats, usually in the Senate, would jam the House right before Christmas every year with a 4,000-page piece of legislation that spends over a trillion and a half dollars,” Johnson told Sean Hannity last night on Fox News. "That’s no way to run a railroad. So, what we did was we broke this up so that we could actually amend and negotiate and fight for policy initiatives on 12 separate appropriations bills. We have done that. We have got an agreement now. And now they will be passed in two packages because, as you noted, the calendar’s run out." The deal includes an agreement to approve yet another short-term continuing resolution to keep the government funded while the final text of the bills is worked out. "We are in agreement that Congress must work in a bipartisan manner to fund our government," the leaders said. "The remaining six Appropriations bills — Defense, Financial Services and General Government, Homeland Security, Labor-HHS, Legislative Branch, and State and Foreign Operations — will be finalized, voted on, and enacted prior to March 22." CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS REACH SHORT-TERM DEAL TO AVOID GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin to face House grilling over secretive hospitalization Washington Examiner: Immigration becomes No. 1 concern for voters as Biden and Trump head to border Washington Examiner: Republicans hound Biden ahead of Thursday border trip Washington Examiner: Polish farmer protests threaten NATO security, ally warns Washington Examiner: Hamas flexible over ceasefire, but ready to continue fighting: political leader Washington Examiner: Democrats say Johnson legacy on the line with Ukraine aid vote: 'History is watching' Washington Examiner: Congressional leaders reach short-term deal to avoid government shutdown Washington Examiner: Texas judge rules $1.7 trillion spending bill is unconstitutional because lawmakers weren't present when they voted Washington Examiner: Opinion: Nuclear weapons and the SAS, or why Macron's troops to Ukraine comment isn't as insane as it sounds Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden fiddles while China invades Washington Post: Russia Seizes More Villages In Ukraine, Raising Fears Of Growing Momentum AP: US adults fracture along party lines in support for Ukraine military funding, AP-NORC poll finds Wall Street Journal: Hamas Is Losing Every Battle in Gaza. It Still Thinks It Could Win the War. AP: Strike on Palestinians waiting for aid in Gaza kills and wounds dozens Defense News: How Can the Pentagon Arm Ukraine Amid Stalled Aid Package? Breaking Defense: Why the European Union and United States Are Leading 'Parallel' Security Operations in the Red Sea The Guardian: Houthis Deny Targeting Underwater Cables Amid Marine Disaster Warning New York Times: Hamas Official Calls for Ramadan March to Aqsa Mosque Bloomberg: China Militia Presence Increases In South China Sea, Report Says The Hill: Who will talk to Afghanistan's Taliban?" DefenseScoop: Allvin: Congressional Budget Impasse Poses Challenges to Air Force Reorganization Air & Space Forces Magazine: Allvin Promises Quick Start to Some Re-Optimization Changes But Warns Others Will Take Years Air & Space Forces Magazine: As Sweden Enters NATO, Its Gripens Link Up with B-1Bs The War Zone: Singapore Adds F-35As to Expand Its Stealth Fighter Fleet Air & Space Forces Magazine: CSO on the State of the Space Force and the Future C4ISRNET: Missile Warning Payload Delay Could Push Back 2025 Launch Plans Flying Magazine: FAA Closes Investigation into SpaceX Starship Explosion Defense One: Air Force Must Learn from Suicides, Chief Says in Wake of Airman's Self-Immolation Over Gaza Air & Space Forces Magazine: Tornado Damages Wright-Patterson AFB and U.S. Air Force Museum The Cipher Brief: Opinion: U.S. National Security Depends on American Tech and a Healthy Relationship with Risk The Cipher Brief: Opinion: 'Mirror, Mirror on the Wall' and the Global Threat of Putin's Nuclear Narcissism The Cipher Brief: The Urgent Cyber Threat that Few in Washington Understand The Cipher Brief: The Border Crisis and National Security: What Needs to Be Done? THE CALENDAR: THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 29 9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Undermining Ukraine: How Russia widened global information operations in 2023,” with Olga Tokariuk, fellow, Chatham House Ukraine Forum; Valentin Chatelet, research associate, Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab; Andy Carvin, senior fellow, Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab; Beatriz Farrugia, research associate, Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab; Sopo Gelava, research associate, Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab; Roman Osadchuk, research associate, Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab; and Dina Sadek, research fellow, Atlantic Council Digital Forensic Research Lab https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/undermining-ukraine 9:30 a.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Diplomacy and Iran,” with former U.K. Ambassador to Iran Nicholas Hopton https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events 10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Governing Gaza After the War,” with Jonathan Rynhold, professor at Bar-Ilan University; Nathan Brown, professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University; Muriel Asseburg, senior fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs; Amr Hamzawy; director, Carnegie Middle East Program; Zaha Hassan, CEIP fellow; and Yasmine Farouk, nonresident scholar, CEIP Middle East Program https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/02/29/governing-gaza-after-war 10 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “Black Sea Security: Bulgaria’s Role and the Need for a Regional Strategy,” with Bulgarian Ambassador to Turkey Nadezhda Neynsky; Yordan Bozhilov, founder and president, Sofia Security Forum; Richard Hooker, professor of national security strategy, National War College; and Asya Metodieva, visiting fellow of GMFUS’s Engaging Central Europe Initiative https://www.gmfus.org/event/black-sea-security 10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: "A Review of Defense Secretary Austin's Unannounced Absence," with testimony from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings 10 a.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee hearing: “Port Cybersecurity: The Insidious Threat to U.S. Maritime Ports” http://homeland.house.gov 11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies "Smart Women, Smart Power" virtual discussion: "Navigating the Seas," Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti and Kathleen McInnis, director, CSIS Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative https://www.csis.org/events/navigating-seas-admiral-lisa-franchetti 11:50 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: “The Critical Importance of Data in Contested Environments," with Gen. James “Jim” Slife, vice chief of staff, Air Force; Army Chief Master Sgt. Kenneth Bruce, senior enlisted leader, U.S. Cyber Command; Space Force Chief Master Sgt. Ronald Lerch, senior enlisted leader, Space Systems Command’s Intelligence Directorate; and retired Marine Corps Master Gunnery Sgt. Scott Stalker, founder of Stalker Solutions and former command senior enlisted leader, U.S. Space Command https://afceadc.swoogo.com/contested24 1 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry Stimson Center discussion: “Examining Implementation, Child Soldiers Prevention Act,” with Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Dick Durbin (D-IL); Daniel Ohlstein, senior adviser for children and armed conflict, State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor; Jo Becker, advocacy director, Human Rights Watch Children’s Rights Division; and Rachel Stohl, director, Stimson Conventional Defense Program https://www.stimson.org/event/taking-stock 1:30 p.m. 291 Wood Rd., Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program and U.S. Naval Institute Maritime Security Dialogue in-person and virtual discussion: "DoD's Warfighting Concept" with Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Adm. Christopher Grady and retired Rear Adm. Raymond Spicer, CEO and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute https://www.csis.org/events/dods-warfighting-concept FRIDAY | MARCH 1 11 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual book discussion: Death, Dominance, and State-Building: The U.S. in Iraq and the Future of American Military Intervention, with author Roger Petersen, professor of political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Hamzeh Hadad, adjunct fellow, CNAS Middle East Security Program; and Jonathan Lord, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Middle East Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-book-event 12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute book discussion: China’s Gambit: The Calculus of Coercion, with author Ketian Zhang, assistant professor of international security, George Mason University; Jude Blanchette, chairman in China studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Eric Gomez, senior fellow, Cato Institute https://register.cato.org/China-Gambit-Calculus-Coercion 1 p.m. Los Angeles, California — Rand Corporation discussion: “The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Realizing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” with Ken Jimbo, managing director of programs, International House of Japan; Christopher Johnstone, Japan chairman, Center for Strategic and International Studies; British Consul General of Los Angeles; Emily Cloke; Francis Maynard Maleon, head of the Philippines Consulate General of Los Angeles’s Political and Economic Section; Canadian Consul General of Los Angeles Zaib Shaikh; Japanese Consul General of Los Angeles Kenko Sone; Shihoko Goto, director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program; and Kunihiko Shinoda, executive adviser of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies https://www.rand.org/events/2024/03/a-free-and-open-indo-pacific.html TUESDAY | MARCH 6 12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army "Noon Report" webinar: "Rebuilding the Army Reserve: Ready Now, Shaping Tomorrow," with Command Sgt. Maj. Andrew Lombardo, the U.S. Army Reserve's senior enlisted leader https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report/csm-lombardo | | | | "Well, the reports were pretty accurate. They said that I was on an island by myself and it was me versus everyone else in the room. What the liberal media doesn't understand, Sean, is that if you're here in Washington and you're described as a leader that's on an island by themselves, it probably means you're standing with the American people. And that's what I did." | | House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) confirming to Fox News's Sean Hannity that he was the lone holdout against Ukraine aid in the Tuesday meeting with Biden at the White House. |
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