Daily on Defense: Return to the ‘axis of evil,’ Guam in the crosshairs, Sullivan tells Kyiv to believe, Schumer renews plea for vote on Ukraine aid

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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'WE’RE ALMOST BACK TO THE AXIS OF EVIL': The outgoing commanders responsible for countering China and North Korea have warned a House committee that both U.S. adversaries are forging new relationships with Russia with the goal of advancing their own aims in the Indo-Pacific region.

In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee Wednesday, Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, called the security environment in his corner of the world "the most dangerous I’ve seen in 40 years in uniform."

"The [People's Republic of China's] unprecedented military buildup and a campaign of coercion actions continue to destabilize the region, and they challenge the values and institutions that support a free and open Indo-Pacific," Aquilino said. "Conflict is not imminent or inevitable, but our potential adversaries have become increasingly aggressive and emboldened."

Testifying alongside Aquilino, Army Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander of U.S. and allied forces in Korea, said North Korea's Kim Jong Un is using his new relationship as ammunition supplier to battle-test its weapons in preparation for war.

"He’s developing weapons of mass destruction for that. He’s looking for sanctions relief. And he’s preparing to defend his nation as his top priorities," LaCamera said. "He’s coming out of COVID, just like everybody else. He’s in his winter training cycle right now. And he’s testing equipment. And he’s also having … Russia test some of his equipment by providing that for the fight in Ukraine."

North Korea, LaCamera said, has "found refuge" in its alliance with China and its revitalized partnership with Russia. "We were still digging into exactly what is being provided [to Russia]," he said. "But KJU has an opportunity with the Russians right now to have some of his technology tested on the battlefield. And not just his missile technology but his artillery and others."

"I’m very concerned the advances in Kim’s missile technology is the result of a strengthening alliance with Vladimir Putin," Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL) said in his opening statement. "Since August, North Korea has shipped millions of artillery shells, rockets, and ballistic missiles to Russia, while Russia supplies energy back to North Korea."

"We’re almost back to the 'axis of evil' when you plug in Iran to this problem set," Aquilino testified. "That set of cooperation is concerning, and it should be concerning to the whole globe. So we ought to act accordingly. We ought to listen to what they say."

US ADMIRAL: CHINA'S AGGRESSION AGAINST PHILIPPINES HEADED TO 'A BAD PLACE'

AQUILINO: CHINA BUILDING CAPACITY TO TAKE TAIWAN: "My view is that China would absolutely like to assimilate Taiwan without a war," said Aquilino, who is wrapping up his tour as top commander for the Indo-Pacific region. "That is evident by their increasingly aggressive coercive campaign against Taiwan, increasingly deploying ships in the vicinity, crossing the center line with their air assets, entering their [air defense identification zone] with their aircraft, adjusting flight paths from China to get much more closer to Taiwan."

"They’re taking all actions to attempt to get the Taiwanese to capitulate. Now, I don’t see that happening," Aquilino said, but he added, "Their intent is to build military capability, should they need to take action."

And China, he noted, has not over the past few years denounced the use of force. "They continue to keep it on the table."

"The PRC continues to present the most comprehensive and serious challenge to our national security. That’s because the PRC remains the only country with the will and, increasingly, the capability to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and displace the United States," testified Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for the Indo-Pacific, urging Congress to approve the supplemental budget request for Taiwan that has been bottled up along with aid for Ukraine and Israel. "We remain cleareyed about the substantial and growing challenges ahead, and we know that meeting them will require heightened urgency, attention, resources, and strong partnership with Capitol Hill."

"Earlier this month, the PRC announced it was raising its defense budget by 7.2% in 2024. It’s the third year in a row in which China has increased defense spending by 7% or more," said Rogers. "This unprecedented level of defense spending is paying off. The PLA is fielding modern military systems, like hypersonic weapons and fifth-generation fighters. They can project power well into the Pacific with a 340-ship navy that includes a new aircraft carrier and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines."

GUAM WON'T HAVE MISSILE DEFENSES IN TIME FOR TAIWAN WAR, ADMIRAL FEARS

'WE MUST GO FASTER': As he has done every year, as required by the National Defense Authorization Act, Aquilino has submitted a "wish list" of unfunded priorities that are not included in the current plans. And every year, the list grows longer, as weapons and other capabilities that are deemed unaffordable at the moment get rolled over to the next year's list.

This year's list comes in at $11 billion, largely for the defense of Guam, a U.S. territory less than 2,000 miles from the coasts of China and North Korea, well within missile range.

"I’ve articulated the requirement, and it’s been consistent for five years, which is a 360-degree integrated air and missile defense capability for Guam that would protect our citizens and protect the forces that we need, and that includes ballistic hypersonic and cruise missile threats," Aquilino testified. "We must go faster, and I’ve articulated that needs to be in place by 2027."

"As Congress makes those tough decisions about how do we place resources properly … obviously we’re probably not going to have the resources to fulfill the list," Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA) observed at one point, to which Aquilino replied, "There’s tough choices to be made, but I can tell you this adversary, as Secretary Ratner said, there is no other adversary with the capability, capacity, means, and intent to displace the United States. That’s why it’s the top priority. So we’ve got to make some tough choices, and I’ve articulated the resources I think I need to do that."

"They focus around, No. 1, defense of the homeland, which is the Guam defense system," Aquilino said. "That is certainly the top priority."

BIDEN'S 'GOODBYE GUAM' DEFENSE BUDGET

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre

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HAPPENING TODAY: Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and Army Gen. Paul LaCamera continue their valedictory visit to Capitol Hill with an appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 a.m. The hearing will be livestreamed on the committee's website and the Pentagon's webpage

LATER TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with President Wesley Simina of the Federated States of Micronesia at the Pentagon at 3:30 p.m.

SULLIVAN TO UKRAINE: 'YOU SHOULD BELIEVE IN THE US': National security adviser Jake Sullivan was in Kyiv yesterday, urging Ukrainian officials not to lose faith in the United States, even as efforts to approve funding for desperately needed weapons and ammunition remain blocked by a faction of the Republican Party in the House.

Meeting with the head of the office of President Volodymyr Zelensky, Sullivan promised the Biden administration will do "everything in our power" to continue to support Ukraine.

"I know there are questions here because of the back and forth in our Congress and the months that have gone by without the supplemental bill coming through, the package of aid that you rightly deserve," Sullivan said at a news conference with Andriy Yermak. "But from our perspective, we are confident we will get this done."

"I'm here today to say: We believe in you. We believe you will prevail. … And we're going to be your partner in that every step of the way," Sullivan said. "I'm also here to say that you should believe in the United States. We have stood by your side since this war began. We have provided enormous support, and we will continue to do so every day in every way we know how."

In the Q&A that followed, Sullivan was asked about whether the U.S. had yet agreed to provide Ukraine with the long-range weapons it needs to take down the Krech Bridge and hit targets far behind Russia's front lines, in particular the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS.

"With respect to ATACMS, I'm going to disappoint you by saying I have nothing to announce here publicly today on that issue," Sullivan said. "But I will say that we have had very constructive discussions about our military support and the capabilities that are necessary to ensure that support is as effective as it could possibly be."

In an earlier meeting with Zelensky himself, Sullivan "underscored the multiple lines of U.S. support to Ukraine following yesterday's successful Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, and stressed the urgent need for the U.S. House of Representatives to pass the national security supplemental to meet Ukraine's critical battlefield needs," according to a White House statement.

DEMOCRATS COOL TO ANOTHER ISRAEL STAND-ALONE AID BILL AND SOUND ALARM ON UKRAINE

SCHUMER: SUPPLEMENTAL IS UKRAINE’S BEST CHANCE TO WIN': House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) continues to be unmoved by the desperate circumstance Ukrainian front-line troops find themselves in, chronically short of ammunition and losing ground to better-armed Russian forces. Thus far, Johnson refused all pleas to allow a vote on a Senate aid bill that includes $60 billion for Ukraine and would easily pass the House on a bipartisan basis with upward of 300 votes.

"The longer that the national security supplemental sits on Speaker Johnson’s desk, the more desperate the situation in Ukraine becomes," Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said on the Senate floor yesterday. "The war in Ukraine has devastated entire cities and towns and villages — not just reducing their buildings to rubble but also decimating their populations. As a result, Ukraine is beginning to run out of soldiers."

"Speaker Johnson knows this as well as I do: If he puts the supplemental on the floor of the House for a vote, it will pass with the same kind of bipartisan support we saw in the Senate," Schumer said. "So, my question for the speaker is this: Why delay providing Ukraine the critical aid it needs to defend itself against Vladimir Putin? The supplemental package is Ukraine’s best chance to win this war."

FUNDING DEAL THAT BIDEN SAID HE'D SIGN 'IMMEDIATELY' INCLUDES BAN ON UNRWA AID

THE RUNDOWN: 

Washington Examiner: Guam won't have missile defenses in time for Taiwan war, admiral fears

Washington Examiner: US admiral: China's aggression against Philippines headed to 'a bad place'

Washington Examiner: Funding deal that Biden said he'd sign 'immediately' includes ban on UNRWA aid

Washington Examiner: Democrats cool to another Israel stand-alone aid bill and sound alarm on Ukraine

Washington Examiner: Johnson promised Democratic support in ouster fight if he puts Ukraine loan on floor

Washington Examiner: Israel's renewed battle at Shifa Hospital emblematic of difficulty wiping out Hamas

Washington Examiner: Schumer rejects Netanyahu's request to address Senate days after blistering speech about Israeli leader

Washington Examiner: House GOP weighs inviting Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress

Washington Examiner: Republican senator says he received threatening phone call over TikTok ban: 'I will find you'

Washington Examiner: Navy fires Naval Special Warfare Group Eight commodore

Washington Examiner: 200,000 illegal immigrants escaped deportation because of paperwork problems

Washington Examiner: Eric Adams stops Texas bus company from sending more immigrants with $700 million lawsuit

Washington Examiner: Iowa passes illegal immigration bill that follows Texas's example 

Washington Examiner: Boeing CFO says company will spend more than expected on security fixes following quality concerns

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump's positive clarification on NATO

New York Times: Symbolism or Strategy? Ukraine Battles to Retain Small Gains.

Washington Post: Ukraine races to build weapons at home

Defense One: Special Operations Face Growing Demand amid Potential Cuts, Top Commander Says

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Indo-Pacific Command Wants to Triple the Air Force's Buy of Joint Strike Missiles

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon Partners with Japan to Save on New Hypersonic Defense, But How Fast Can It Come?

Defense News: First Round of Replicator to Heavily Feature Army Systems, Bush Says

Defense News: US Air Force Tests Third-Stage Rocket Motor for Next Nuclear Missile

Defense One: Spy Agency Ready to Launch New Vehicle-Tracking Satellites

SpaceNews: Defense Innovation Unit Awards Three Contracts for Space Logistics Technologies

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Push for More Pentagon Budget Flexibility Faces Fierce Criticism from Senator

Breaking Defense: In $323M Wishlist, SOUTHCOM Wants Money to Counter Chinese Influence, Drugs in South America

DefenseScoop: Space Force Installs Mission Analysis Team at Fort Meade to Assess Adding Component to Cyber Command

Air & Space Forces Magazine: VCSO: Commercial Space Strategy Coming 'Within the Next Month'

Task & Purpose: Air Force Fires Two Medical Commanders at Joint Base Charleston

Air & Space Forces Magazine: As the Air Force Weighs Privatized Dorms, How Will It Oversee Contractors? 

The War Zone: A-10 Demo Team Announces Its Final Year as the Warthog's End Draws Near

The Cipher Brief: Ukraine Digs in and Hopes for the Best in "Spring Defensive"

THE CALENDAR: 

THURSDAY | MARCH 21

7 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association Senior Defense Leaders Forum with service representatives to review the fiscal 2025 Defense Department budget. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2024-3-21-ndia-dc-chapter

8 a.m. 3111 Fairview Park Dr., Falls Church, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club Artificial Intelligence Summit, with William Streilein, chief technology officer at the Defense Department's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office, and Kathleen Fisher, director, Defense Advanced Research Project Agency Information Innovation Office https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-5th-annual-artificial-intelligence-summit

9:30 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: The Posture of United States Indo-Pacific Command and United States Forces Korea in Review of The Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2025 and the Future Years Defense Program," with testimony from Adm. John Aquilino, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and Army Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander, United Nations Command, ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: "U.S. Military Posture and National Security Challenges in the Greater Middle East and Africa," with testimony from Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs; Gen. Michael "Erik" Kurilla, commander, U.S. Central Command; Gen. Michael Langley, commander, U.S. Africa Command; and Gen. Paul LaCamera, commander, U.S. Forces Korea, Combined Forces Command, and U.N. Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

10 a.m. 210 Cannon — House Budget Committee hearing: “The President’s FY2025 Budget Request,” with testimony from Office of Management and Budget Director Shalanda Young https://budget.house.gov

10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Countering China on the World Stage: Empowering American Businesses and Denying Chinese Military Our Technology,” with testimony from Alan Estevez, commerce undersecretary for the Bureau of Industry and Security, and Jose Fernandez, undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment http://foreignaffairs.house.gov

12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual discussion: “The Islamic State Five Years Later: Persistent Threats, U.S. Options,” with Ian McCary, State Department deputy special envoy to the global coalition to defeat ISIS https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies lecture: “What Was Hamas Thinking?” with Tareq Baconi, president, board, Al Shabaka Palestinian Policy Network [email protected]

2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “State of the Army,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George; Army Brig. Gen. David Gardner, commanding general, Joint Readiness Training Center and Fort Johnson; and Army Brig. Gen. Curt Taylor, commanding general, National Training Center and Fort Irwin https://events.defenseone.com/state-of-defense

3:30 p.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “FY2025 Strategic Forces Posture,” with testimony from John Plumb, assistant secretary of defense for space policy; Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander, U.S. Strategic Command; Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, U.S. Space Command; Gen. Gregory Guillot, commander, U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command http://www.armedservices.house.gov

FRIDAY | MARCH 22

8:30 a.m. 3351 Fairfax Dr., Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association Human Systems Conference with Patrick Mason, head, Office of Naval Research Warfighter Performance Department https://www.ndia.org/events

9 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation Subcommittee hearing: "The Technology and AI Fight for 21st Century Operations in the Department of Defense," with testimony from John Sherman, DOD chief information officer; Craig Martell, DOD chief digital and artificial intelligence officer; and Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner, director, Defense Information Systems Agency https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/citi-hearing

7 p.m. 1324 4th St. NE — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: Collisions: The Origins of War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability, with author Michael Kimmage, professor of history at the Catholic University of America, and Linda Kinstler, executive editor, the Dial https://www.politics-prose.com/michael-kimmage

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"We're almost back to the 'axis of evil' when you plug in Iran to this problem set. That set of cooperation is concerning, and it should be concerning to the whole globe. So we ought to act accordingly. We ought to listen to what they say. We need to, absolutely, and we do every day, watch what they do."
Adm. John Aquilino, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, testifying Wednesday about the growing alliance between China, North Korea, and Russia
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