July 25, 2024 | Read Online

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0. Data and calendar

All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT).

All times are ET.

CORRECTION: Yesterday's calendar had GDP and Durable goods orders for Wed., rather than today.

1. OpenAI could lose as much as $5B in 2024

Gross margin could be ~0% with server costs at or above revenue.
Currently unclear how OpenAI can differentiate vs. Meta's free and open weights Llama 3.1.
Likely will need to fundraise over the next 12 months.

2. Mistral Large 2 (123B) underperforms Llama 3.1 (70B) on reasoning, at frontier on coding

Mistral Large's MMLU of 84% is below the 86% of Llama 3.1 (70B) and the 89% of Llama 3.1 (405B) and GPT-4o:

X: Artificial Analysis.

Free only for non-commercial use, unlike Meta's Llama 3.1, which is free for commercial use too.
Open weights.

Mistral Large 2 is particularly good at coding, but still slightly underperforms GPT-4o at that

Mistral.

Our view: Mistral continues to lag behind Meta on open weights, and Meta's larger bankroll and distribution should keep it that way.

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Mercury.

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4. Bing Generative Search launches, coming after Google, Perplexity

It looks like a beautified version of Google's AI Overviews, which have been deprioritized by Google, likely after poor receptivity:

Bing.

"Small percentage of user queries" will be seeing this new interface.
"Early data indicates that this experience maintains the number of clicks to websites and supports a healthy web ecosystem."

5. CrowdStrike outage cost Fortune 500 $5.4B, mostly in health, banking, airlines

Parametrix.

25% of Fortune 500 was impacted (125 firms).
- 100% of airlines.
Est. 10% - 20% to be covered under cyber insurance policies.
CrowdStrike stock -26% (-$20B in market cap) since the outage.

6. Majority of Copilot testers using it with <20% of employees

Bloomberg.

Employee training and corporate data clean up are required for broad implementation.
Small productivity effects so far.

7. Interesting videos, posts, and memes

YouTube video by 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Jason Lemkin: Crowdstrike, WTF Happens From Here? Wiz Rejects Google's $23BN Acquisition Offer|E1181

8. Other headlines

AI

Stable Video 4D launched by Stability AI, still not ready for prime time.
SK Hynix's revenue +125% to $11.9B in Q2, $4.0B in operating profits.
Reddit unsearchable in non-Google search engines.

Athyna: hire incredible global talent with up to 80% savings vs. U.S. hires.*

*Sponsored.

Tech

OneStream stock +34% after raising $490M in IPO.
Apple Maps launches on web in public beta.
IBM's revenue +2% to $15.8B in Q2, with AI consulting growing.
Vanta raises $150M at $2.4B for compliance.
Revolut gets UK banking license after 3-year struggle.
iPhone torrenting apps now available in EU.

Open Source CEO: learn how to be a leader and outperform the competition, with this free newsletter.*
Sidebar is a personal board of advisors for the next generation of leaders.*
Mercury simplifies your financial workflows.*

*Sponsored. Clicking on ad links may share your email with Mercury for remarketing purposes.

Tech & law

U.S. warns tech startups on risks of investments from foreign adversaries.

Biotech

AstraZeneca's revenue +15% to $25.6B in Q2.

Business

NBA signs $77B broadcasting deal with ESPN, NBCU, Amazon.
Bill Ackman aims to raise $25B for Pershing Square USA next week.
S&P 500 -2.3%, worst daily performance since 2022.
Rupert Murdoch's plan to give control to son Lachlan triggers legal battle.
Lineage, logistics REIT, raises $4.4B in 2024's largest IPO.

Crypto

ETH -8% after ETF launch in U.S.
Ferrari extends scheme to accept crypto to Europe, after U.S.
Proton releases self-custody bitcoin wallet.

tea Protocol: click to subscribe to tea's newsletter and learn more about how to get rewards for your open-source contributions.*

*Sponsored.

U.S. politics

Biden says he dropped out to unite nation, time for new generation.
Harris vetting ~12 possible VP candidates.
Trump shooter fired 8 shots from AR-15 rifle: FBI chief.

World

Netanyahu defends Gaza War in joint congressional speech.
Ukraine's top diplomat meets Chinese counterpart in China.
Russia using Hong Kong companies to avert sanctions.

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🗞️ OpenAI's $5B loss