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Top stories today: - OpenAI forecasts revenue +214% to $11.6B in 2025
- Apple considers new AR headset options, including moving compute to iPhone
- Brazil's top court imposes $5M+ fine on X before it is unbanned
- California's Gov. Newsom blocks controversial AI safety bill
- China urges local companies to avoid buying NVIDIA's chips
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0. Data and calendar |
 | All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT). |
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 | All times are ET. |
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1. OpenAI forecasts revenue +214% to $11.6B in 2025 ahead of $6.5B funding round |
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ChatGPT is expected to make $2.7B in 2024, +286% from 700M in 2023 |
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10M ChatGPT users pay $20M monthly fee. +$2 ChatGPT price rise is forecasted by the year-end. Over 5 years: $44 ChatGPT subscription price is projected.
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OpenAI has forecasted its revenue to hit $100B in 2029 |
$300M OpenAI's monthly revenue in Aug., +1,700% since 2023. ~350M users on OpenAI's services each month as of Jun., vs. 100M in Mar. 1M+ 3rd-party developers use OpenAI's technology.
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Thrive Capital is said to have the option to invest up to $1B more at the $150B valuation through 2025 |
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3. Apple considers new AR headset options, including moving compute to iPhone |
iPhone may replace Vision Pro's on-board computer and external battery pack: |
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Vision Pro 2 may include a new chip and Apple Intelligence. Meta took on Apple's offering with its significantly cheaper Quest 3S headset. Apple may explore smart glasses and new AirPods Pro with similar features.
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Relatedly, Apple is said to be building homeOS, running on two new smart displays |
tvOS could be the basis for homeOS. 2025: when a low-end Apple smart display with FaceTime may launch. ~$1,000 may be the price of the high-end tabletop with an iPad-like display.
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4. Brazil's top court imposes $5M+ fine before it allows X to resume service |
Musk and Brazil Supreme Court judge Moraes' fight over misleading content has impacted X's business in the South American country: |
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$3.4M was for the original fines that X must pay: Moraes. $1.8M is a new fine for the post-ban resumption of X's service in Brazil. Last week, X said it had complied with the orders to ban certain accounts. X is said to challenge the additional $1.8M fine, while it's likely to pay the rest. Elon previously had called Moraes order "censorship" and vowed to protect free speech, before caving in to the legal demands.
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6. California's Gov. Newsom blocks controversial AI safety bill |
Big tech companies opposed the AI safety bill, while Elon Musk and Anthropic were among its proponents: |
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Relatedly, Newsom has passed a law to protect consumer brain data |
The law has amended the privacy law CCPA to include "neural data." It includes the data generated by brain activity. Users can request, delete, correct and limit what brain data is collected. Opting out from companies selling or sharing that data is also possible.
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7. China urges local companies to avoid buying NVIDIA's chips |
China contributed 12.2% to NVIDIA's Q2 FY25 revenues amid U.S. export curbs: |
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8. M&A for VC companies remains sluggish, with 1,329 deals closed in 2024 YTD |
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$67B in M&A for venture-backed companies this year, vs. $71.5B in 2023. PE firms have led M&A deals in 2024. EQT emerged as the most active acquirer in venture-backed startups in 2024. Salesforce, NVIDIA, and Cloudflare were among the other active acquirers. Biotech dominated the sectors saw most $1B+ deals in 2024.
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9. Washington D.C. emerges as larger VC hub than Seattle, Austin |
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Since Q3 2018, D.C. startup funding surpassed Seattle and Austin. $36.1B has been closed by VC funds in D.C. since 2018. $826M closed by Sands Capital in 2021, QED closed $650M last year. Proximity to federal agencies has driven D.C.'s growth.
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10. South Korea's chip inventories -42.6% in Aug., fastest since 2009 |
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11. Interesting videos, posts, and memes |
 | OpenAI's $150B conversion, Meta's AR glasses, Blue-collar boom, Risk of nuclear war |
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 | The Future of Sound: Udio's Vision for AI-Generated Music | E2016 |
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 | Do this to make more money from your startup |
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 | How To Find A Co-Founder | Startup School |
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12. Other headlines |
AI |
ByteDance plans new AI model trained with Huawei chip: sources. Amazon's AI partnership with Anthropic cleared by UK. NotebookLM's automatically generated podcasts get positive review.
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Tech |
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| *Sponsored. Clicking on ad links may share your email with Mercury for remarketing purposes. |
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Tech & law |
Elon to meet SEC for testimony on Oct. 3 over Twitter deal. EU to vote on Oct. 4 to finalize tariffs for China-made EVs. YouTube blocks songs by Adele, Bob Dylan, and others in legal rights dispute. Brazil to propose steps to block use of benefits for online bets.
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Biotech |
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Business |
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Crypto |
Binance founder Changpeng 'CZ' Zhao released. Mango Markets agrees to settle SEC charges by destroying MNGO tokens. Matrixport buys Deutsche Boerse unit Crypto Finance.
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U.S. politics |
Trump says he will seek Google's prosecution over "bad stories" about him. Republicans lay legal groupwork for election challenges. Trump vows to end Ukraine war as he meets with Zelensky. Harris promises tougher immigration, fentanyl controls at border. Harris campaign raises $55M over two weekend events.
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World |
IDF special forces launching targeted raids into southern Lebanon. Israeli strikes kill Hamas leader in Lebanon, 3 Palestinian leaders in Beirut. Yemen port, power plants struck by Israel after Houthi missile attacks. Arab world split in reactions to killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah. Japan's incoming PM Ishiba calls election for Oct. 27. India to probe fire at Tata plant making components for iPhone.
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