
On the menu today: An experiment. Today, I'll present the arguments for why Trump appears to have the advantage as we approach the last weeks of the 2024 campaign. Tomorrow — barring some breaking news that is more important — I'll present the arguments for why Harris appears to have the advantage. Everybody who loves today's newsletter is going to hate tomorrow's edition, and vice versa. Plus, some reassuring words from Ohio governor Mike DeWine, and a point about why leaving certain other countries alone is not an option. The Reasons to Expect a Trump Win You don't win the presidency by winning the popular vote from coast to coast; you win the presidency by winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes. As CNN's Harry Enten put it Monday: "Pretty clear that Harris is ahead nationally right now . . . and I don’t think it matters all that much. . . . Her advantage in the battlegrounds is basically nil. Average it all, Harris' chance of winning the popular vote is 70 percent. Her chance of ... | |
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