| AUSTIN: 'UKRAINE ABSOLUTELY CAN WIN': While Russia has increased the number of drone strikes against targets in Ukraine to record levels since the war began in 2022 and is slowly increasing its foothold in the east despite taking heavy casualties, Ukraine can still prevail, argued Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin — although it depends on how you define victory. "Ukraine absolutely can win," Austin said in a wide-ranging interview with Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin in Rome. "And we define winning as Ukraine being a sovereign state that can defend its territory and deter aggression in the future." Noticeably, Austin did not say whether Ukraine might be forced to make territorial concessions to Russia. He also stubbornly defended President Joe Biden's decision — against the advice of former U.S. military commanders and over the strenuous objections of members of Congress — to deny Ukraine permission to use U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS rockets to take out targets deeper in Russia. "The Russians have already moved their aircraft out of the range of, beyond range of, of ATACMS," Austin told Griffin, while insisting Ukraine already has the capability to strike deep into Russia, with its homegrown drones. "They're highly effective. We've seen them conduct attacks or operations that are some 400 kilometers (250 miles) beyond the border and even further." "Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes on the night of October 21 to 22 targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military," according to the latest update from the Institute for the Study of War. The targets in the Tula Oblast, about 120 miles south of Moscow, included a distillery, a synthetic rubber plant, and a thermal power plant. 'THERE'S A LOT AT STAKE': The Fox interview came one day after Austin gave a speech in Kyiv blasting what he called "Kremlin apologists," who blame Ukraine for Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression and 'offer excuses' for his atrocities. "There is an increasing move toward isolationism in the U.S.," Griffin asked. "Does this concern you?" "Of course it does. You know, we are a global power, and we're going to need to continue to do what's necessary to protect those interests," Austin replied. "There's a lot at stake, Jen. You know, we don't want to live in a world where a tyrant can wake up and decide to erase his sovereign neighbor's border. If Putin is successful, he will continue to do what he has done. All of the Baltic states are very concerned…they rightfully feel they would be next on the menu." "Sen. J.D. Vance has been one of the loudest opponents of aid to Ukraine, arguing that the U.S. defense industrial base can't produce enough to keep supporting Ukraine and Israel. Does he have a point?" Griffin pressed. "We've seen an increase in production in artillery shells, anti-tank weapons systems, and a number of things. Our industrial base has picked up the pace. They are expanding production." BUSTING THE UKRAINE FUNDING MYTH: On the campaign trail, former President Donald Trump railed against the billions in aid the U.S. sends Ukraine while complaining bitterly that European countries are not doing their part. "They are contributing a lot," Austin argued. "I convene a group every month. It consists of 50 countries, and that group has together contributed some $51 billion. Germany has committed to $31 billion worth of security assistance, and I think that's remarkable. And there are some smaller countries, as a percentage of G.D.P., that have contributed more than the United States." And the money, for the most part, stays in the United States. "We do not send cash over to Ukraine. We draw down equipment, and we replace those munitions with something that's probably a little bit more modern and more effective." "Ohio, Texas, Alabama, you name it, there are a number of states that benefit directly," he said. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he is meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, one day after pressing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring the war in Gaza to a close and make a deal to free the remaining 101 hostages believed to be held by Hamas. "In the space of the year, [Israel's] managed to dismantle Hamas's military capacity. It's destroyed much of its arsenal. It's eliminated its senior leadership, including, most recently, Yahya Sinwar," Blinken told reporters at Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv before departing for Saudi Arabia. "Now is the time to turn those successes into an enduring strategic success, and there are really two things left to do: get the hostages home and bring the war to an end with an understanding of what will follow. And that's what we've been working on this past day and will continue to work on throughout this trip." Blinken spent more than two hours meeting with Netanyahu on Tuesday. "I can report that there's progress made, which is good, but more progress needs to be made. And most critically, it needs to be sustained," he said. "We've had periods before where the Israelis have increased what they're doing only to see it fall back. So we're tracking this very, very, very carefully, and we went over it in some detail." IDF REVEALS HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS IN GOLD AND CASH STASHED BY HEZBOLLAH UNDER BEIRUT HOSPITAL PENTAGON SAYS FBI IS LEADING DOCUMENT LEAK PROBE: The Pentagon said yesterday that the FBI has taken over the investigation into how two top-secret documents detailing what U.S. spy satellites observed about Israel's preparations for a retaliatory attack on Iran ended up on the popular messaging app Telegram. "The FBI is investigating the alleged leak of classified documents and working closely with the Department of Defense and the intelligence community on this," Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said at yesterday's Pentagon briefing. "As it relates to the safety or the safeguarding of sensitive information. That is of course something that we take incredibly seriously here at the Department of Defense and will continue to do so," he said. "The investigation is in its first few days so it’s important to let that investigation run its course." Ryder did however take the unusual step of disputing reports that suggested Iranian-born American, Ariane Tabatabai — who has a top-secret clearance as chief of staff for the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low intensity conflict — should be a prime suspect. "To my knowledge, this official is not a subject of interest," Ryder said without specifically naming Tabatabai. "I don't want to start throwing out names to perpetuate information," he said, repeating, "to my knowledge, the official that was being referenced is not a subject of interest. So I'll just leave it there." PENTAGON DENIES OFFICIAL RUMORED RESPONSIBLE FOR IRAN LEAK WAS INVOLVED DECONSTRUCTING A TRUMP 'TRUTH': In a post on his Truth Social platform, former President Donald Trump misrepresented all the critical points about the leaked or possibly hacked secret U.S. documents. Here's the breakdown: Trump: "U.S. leaked highly confidential documents from Israel." Truth: The documents were not from Israel. They were U.S. documents that were created by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. Trump: "May have come from the Department of Defense … Probably came from the Department of Defense." Truth: It may have, but the documents were cleared for sharing with America's "Five Eyes" allies, the U.K., Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. An investigation will attempt to find the leaker. Trump: "Israel has been seriously damaged and compromised by this." Truth: While the leak of the documents is a serious breach of security, the two pages revealed little more than the fact that Israel was preparing to attack Iran, something Israel has publicly announced. Trump: "Israel no longer wants to share documents with the U.S. Who can blame them?" Truth: Not true. And again, the documents were not something Israel shared with the U.S. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Russian 'influence actors' spread disinformation about Tim Walz, intelligence community concludes Washington Examiner: Hezbollah drone shattered Netanyahu's bedroom window Washington Examiner: IDF reveals hundreds of millions in gold and cash stashed by Hezbollah under Beirut hospital Washington Examiner: Pentagon denies official rumored responsible for Iran leak was involved Washington Examiner: Iran and Russia could stoke violence after Election Day, intel community warns AP: FBI says it's investigating leak of secret documents on Israel's possible attack plans New York Times: US Agrees to Give Ukraine Millions to Build More Long-Range Drones National Security Journal: Is Ukraine Running Out of Soldiers to Fight Russia? AP: Ukraine's Zelenskyy Says Only a US Green Light on a NATO Invitation Will Sway a Reluctant Germany National Security Journal: What if Ukraine Had Kept Its Nuclear Weapons? New York Times: As Election Nears, Kelly Warns Trump Would Rule Like a Dictator The Atlantic: Trump: 'I Need the Kind of Generals That Hitler Had' AP: Navalny's memoir details isolation and suffering in a Russian prison – and how he never lost hope AP: Israel says it killed a Hezbollah official expected to become the group's next leader AP: Images capture exact moments an Israeli missile strikes building in Beirut Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-2 Back in Service 3 Months Faster After New Inspection Process National Security Journal: Why Are There So Few B-2 Stealth Bombers in the U.S. Air Force? National Security Journal: How Many B-21 Raider Bombers Does the Air Force Need? SpaceNews: Space Force Refining Commercial Backup Plan for Military Satellites Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Component Eyes More Exercises in Indo-Pacific Breaking Defense: Lots of 'Buzz' but No 'Compelling' Military Value for Cislunar Space: CSIS Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Spends More, But Fighter Readiness Lags. GAO Wonders Why Air & Space Forces Magazine: Strategy & Policy: A National Defense Strategy Under the Gun Military Times: Weighing Benefits: Could Anti-Obesity Meds Help Troops' Weight Issues? Military.com: New Air Force Findings Show Risky Chemicals at Nuclear Missile Bases, Though at Levels Deemed Safe Aviation Week: Lockheed CEO Revives CCA Debate over Combat Readiness Timing Defense One: F-35 Tech Problems, Protracted Negotiations Hit Lockheed Finances Breaking Defense: Saab Braces for 'Couple of Years' of 'Stop-and-Go' Production Instability on T-7A Trainer Fuselage DefenseScoop: Air Force Names Susan Davenport as New Chief Data and AI Officer National Security Journal: Kamala Harris Thinks Iran Is America's Biggest Threat: Is She Wrong? National Security Journal: The Greatest Threat to America Isn't China, But $34 Trillion in Debt WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 23 10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Explosive Triangle: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon David Satterfield, director of Rice University’s Institute for Public Policy; Kim Ghattas, Financial Times contributing editor; and Aaron David Miller, CEIP senior fellow https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024 2 p.m. 210 Cannon — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe briefing: “Contesting Russia: Lessons from Central and Eastern Europe,” with Indra Ekmanis, Baltic Sea fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute; Andrew Michta, director, Atlantic Council’s GeoStrategy Initiative; and Dalibor Rohac, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow https://www.youtube.com/live 2 p.m.1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Understanding China’s Strategic Path to Great Power Status,” with Oriana Skylar Mastro, CEIP nonresident scholar; Isaac Kardon, CEIP senior fellow; Ashley Tellis, CEIP chair for strategic affairs; and Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/10/understanding-china 4 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies book discussion: Understanding Hamas and Why That Matters, with co-author Helena Cobban, president of Just World Educational https://www.georgetown.edu/event/book-talk-understanding-hamas THURSDAY | OCTOBER 24 9 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, Virginia — National Defense Industrial Association U.S. and Japan Defense Industry Dialogue. https://www.ndia.org/events/2024/10/24/2024-japan-did 10:30 a.m. — R Street Institute virtual discussion: “Plundering the Pentagon: How Contractors Continue to Cheat Taxpayers,” with Julia Gledhill, research associate at the Stimson Center’s National Security Reform Program; Gordon Heddell, former inspector general at the Defense Department; and Nan Swift, fellow in governance studies at the R Street Institute https://www.rStreet.org/events/plundering-the-pentagon-how-contractors-continue-to-cheat 12 p.m. — RAND Corporation virtual discussion: “Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Information Warfare,” with Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, RAND senior policy researcher; and William Marcellino, RAND senior behavioral and social scientist https://www.rand.org/events/2024/10/generative-ai 5 p.m. 7795 Arundel Mills Blvd., Hanover, Maryland — Intelligence and National Security Foundation and the National Cryptologic Foundation "Cocktails and Codebreakers event,” with National Cyber Director Harry Coker; Air Force Gen. Timothy Haugh, commander, U.S. Cyber Command and director, National Security Agency and chief, Central Security Service; and retired Navy Reserve Lt. Cmdr. Montel Williams, host of “Military Makeover: Operation Career” and former host, Montel Williams Show https://www.insaonline.org/detail-pages/event FRIDAY | OCTOBER 25 9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: "Plotting a Course for the Future: The First U.S. Coast Guard Operational Posture,” with Coast Guard Deputy Commandant for Operations Vice Adm. Peter Gautier https://www.csis.org/events/plotting-course-future-first | | | | "Well, looking at the definition of fascism: It's a far-right authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy … Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he's certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure." | | Retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, Trump longest-serving White House chief of staff, in an interview with the New York Times |
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